The myth of aviation safety? Bashny.Net

We often hear that the aircraft - the safest form of transport and airlines juggle statistics that fly in an airplane hundreds of times safer than travel by car. What actually does it mean? As they have calculated?

It's very simple - they use statistics "number of deaths per billion kilometers." Indeed, according to this method of calculation of air - a definite champion and flight on a plane 62 times safer to travel by car. But on the same method of calculation is safer to ride a bike than to walk - why then the US insurance companies when buying insurance is always interested in whether you're driving on a bicycle (as the person who wrote the program for the largest insurance companies I can personally confirm this)? After all, as even safer on the logic of the airlines?

Let me illustrate this example at a hypothetical example. Say, [next] scientists invented last photon rocket, reaching the speed of light, and sent her the first copy of the first flight - to fly around and take pictures of the solar system planetoid Eris and return to Earth. Photon rocket flies Eris, photographs, returned the next day, but instead of landing crashes into Earth, leaving a huge crater. The missile killed a cosmonaut, but ... the logic of the airlines photonic rocket is now the safest means of transport, because of its reliability 0, 03 deaths per billion kilometers. And even if each photon rocket will die - 'Do not be afraid to fly on photonic rockets, because the photon rocket - the safest vehicle! ».



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Absurd? Of course, but that this logic used by airlines.
Are there other, more objective method of calculation of security? Of course. For example, the number of deaths per billion hours. But by this method are not air travel the safest mode of transport.

* Bus - 11
* Railroad - 30
* Air - 31
* Water transport - 50
* Machine - 130
* And so forth.

that is, there are 1 hour in an airplane you have three times more likely to die than an hour while on the bus.
On the other hand, air transportation is 4, 2 times safer car. Here, I'll insert subjective. My cousin worked in the transport police more than 40 years and it claims more than 90% of deaths in car accidents can be described by the words "foolhardiness-alcohol-drugs." And in my experience and read a weekly column "traffic accident" in the NÖ Nachrichten, I can say that in most cases we are talking about the top three factors. In other words, a normal driver still less likely to die in a car than on a plane.
There are other statistics - "the number of deaths per billion journeys." Here the air is even worse:

* Bus: 4.3
* Rail: 20
* Reputation: 40
* Water transport 90
* Air transport: 117

I do not want to say anything bad about the air - he has flown decently. I just want to say that the loud approval of airlines that air travel - the most secure, to put it mildly, questionable.

via nazdarru

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