Igor Chubais: Kremlin victory over Ukraine will not. Russia fades before our eyes


Igor Chubais, Ph.D., historian and founder of the discipline "Russian studies" is perhaps no less controversial and tobacco criticism than his younger brother, with whom Chubais philosopher had not talking.

His book "unravel Russia" and "Russian idea" on the background of today's pessimism about traditional domestic values ​​look quite optimistic Chubais argues that no historical curse on us is not that the millennial Russian way was among the most successful on the continent, it has not yet happened disaster of 1917, which overturned the country upside down. And when we realize that 90 years wander on the sidelines when we realize that the Soviet Union and post-Soviet - Russia is not, when we come back and continue your route, the world will take us back, and we will find ourselves.

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- I'll start with a question that I am most worried about today: Putin - is someone like Julian the apostate, the loop in the historical path of Russia or return to our traditional way to ancestral values?

- Putin? What does he have to do with Russia? The mode in which we now live, - the continuation of the Soviet Union in a degraded, depleted version. There is no higher purposes, there is no myth about communism, but the power remains in the hands of officials appoint itself, which, as before, remain outside the control of the Company and serve themselves, and not the country. Comparing Putin to Hitler, too, is incorrect: if Hitler was bad Jews, Gypsies, but the German population in Germany in clover skate. Under Putin, Russia is bad, and the Russians, the country dies before our eyes.

There is a wonderful, well-known economist abroad - Vladimir Quint - you know it? That's the trouble, you do not know: Vladimir - a foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to listen to his forecast in Europe, in the United States, it is the world's leading expert on economic strategy development. In 1990, he predicted the collapse of the USSR. Three years ago, he has shown that by 2017, if not start deep reforms, the Russian economy will stop, cease revenues.

Yes, now small and medium business has almost disappeared, capital flight increases, real incomes are falling, and the fees, fines and taxes are rising at times! In 2016, we are waiting for the Duma elections in imitation parliament. After all, Russia is not, as in traditional democracy, checks and balances, we have a "vertical of power", and the parliament - not a place for discussion, for that matter, and the hospital - not a place for the treatment of ... Two years later, when the strike up " pending crises ", the elections to the" administrative resource ", and in Russian - the falsification of anyone not satisfied.

- Then why are all now so excited? Such ratings?

- It's not the ratings of public opinion, it is the measurement of the effectiveness of propaganda! In fact, another important indicator - the opinion of the so-called opinion makers, the people who are listening to. In the last fifteen years, opinion leaders ousted from the media ... But today all Russian art, but two characters - Mikhalkov and Bondarchuk opposition. A passive part of society responds to any question what he hears on TV.

- In my opinion, you do exaggerate the power of propaganda. She believes, as long as it coincides with their own secret mood ...

- Mystery mood like always. Any propaganda flattering feeling of national exclusiveness. The Germans were a nation with a great intellectual tradition, volumes of Kant and Hegel are in almost every home. Meanwhile, following the thirty-third year they have decreased significantly critical of their own government and to themselves; and five years later it disappeared completely, for insignificant exceptions. And this propaganda has done - the idea judenfrei supports almost all the intellectuals, not only in Germany.

- But did Putin is not based on the very matrix of the Russian? ..

- The Russian matrix, or to put it more precisely, to the Russian idea, it has nothing to do in the beginning of the twentieth century, when the country came out confidently into the world's leaders, this idea just reformed. Today, it is believed that the foundation of the empire - a continuous territorial expansion, when in fact the latest manifestation of Russian expansion in Europe - this is the beginning of the nineteenth century, then there was a war in the Caucasus. At the end of the second third of the last century ended connection. Alexander III had not fought at all. Began the transition from a strategy of collecting land to the philosophy of construction and quality growth.

And many now in ecstasy from absurd territorial expansion in the Crimea, while no arrangement vast and virtually derelict area does not occur. The current government, announcing the succession with the Soviet Union, a totalitarian, unlawful state made itself illegitimate. Mode has not received a legal "right to rule" neither from God nor from churovskih elections, not even a historical legitimation - as "nuts weaken," people go to protest and express non-acceptance of existing rules.

For 95 years there was no "historical addiction." I wrote Solzhenitsyn, the Soviet Union is related to the Russian history as a murderer with the victim! And now the "scoop" continues "postsovok." In the early twentieth century, Russia was becoming an industrial giant of Europe wrote about the "Russian economic miracle", was built by the Trans-Siberian, at the end of the nineteenth century, Nicholas II banned the export of crude oil, and after 120 years, we are living through the sale of raw materials.

- By the way, how do you explain the wild frenzy with which Russia attacked first on the Maidan, and then to the Ukraine in general?

- The same as the occupation of Hungary in 1956, putting tanks in Czechoslovakia in 1968 ... I am the way, in August of '68 protested against the occupation of Czechoslovakia in front of the regional committee of the Communist Party in Odessa, this is the building where in May, people died. Ukraine regains its identity, becomes free, returned to the European family, it goes out of control kvazirusskogo, but in reality anti-Russian regime. Soon they will hold the trial of the Communist Party, will hold a lustration and easy with the Soviet legacy. End ninety wraith.

- Let's return to Ukraine: can win the so-called New Russia?

- It can not, because the vast majority of the Ukrainian people is ready to deal with it. I'm at the beginning of the sixties fascinated by Cuba, learning Spanish, enthusiastically read theoretical works of Che Guevara, he was not only practice, but also a thinker; In his book "Guerrilla Warfare", he showed that to win a civil protest if it is supported by the people, it is impossible.

The Ukrainian situation is a paradox in the fact that the Ukrainian army and the National Guard under supported by the majority of the population - it is the people they provide. Look at the social network. Medicines need? - Carry medicines; Food? - Food supply: the generals out there are not very advanced ... And if suddenly the Russian army decided to enter the Ukrainian territory - it would be faced with a people's war, and seriously to win.

- What is the future Strelkova do you think?

- He thinks that will soon die.

- And if not?

- Then kill us. You both prefer?

- A to become president, he can not?

- To win a fair election? No, there is no truth behind it!

No Kremlin victory over Ukraine will not, and no euphoria over the Crimea in the near future, too, will not. For all have to pay, and policies required to calculate five moves in the next 10 years. Our children will have to give the Crimea, they are doomed to defeat. You know, when Germany has to pay reparations for the outbreak of the First World War - in 2010! Crimea taken in contradiction with all laws - legal and human.

"Krymnenash", otherwise you'll have to go back to the Soviet era, when the world was out of step, and we - in the leg. That's all the explanation. And as a final divorce from Ukraine, I would say not in a hurry. I think that after the liberation of Russia - after all, it will throw the present corrupt trash and restore their identity - our free-Ukraine along the way. And I would not rule out that in the new capital of a free country is in Kiev, if we did not throw ... After Kiev - the mother of Russian cities, why not go back to basics? I say, should pay for everything. But Moscow did not manage.

World War, we have slipped in 1991

- How do you feel about today Yeltsin? Many believe that the main tragedy of the country - his victory over Gorbachev, it follows all the current problems.

- The roots of the current problems - in the unresolved consequences of the coup of 1917, the main geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century - is not the collapse of the USSR, and the destruction of the Russian Empire. Well, if you go back to 1991 ... would have come to power, politicians like Putin - and the world (not even Yugoslav) war would be very likely. Under Yeltsin, we got rid of the Chechen war, when Yeltsin - Ukrainian. Yeltsin was more difficult, but the war within the CIS, he escaped. But perhaps the main mistake of Yeltsin that he did not create a class of owners, the nomenclature remains the master of the country, and that is what we are paying today.

In the 90s, instead of the class of owners created a layer of oligarchs on the one hand, and the homeless - the other, the national heritage concentrated in the hands of a few hundred families today, the income gap between the wealthiest ten percent and ten percent of the disadvantaged - hundredfold. And in Europe, the norm is a differentiation in the six or seven times.

- But you believe that this class of property owners could create? With a population not ready either to business or to the competition, or to comply with the laws?

- In Poland, the reforms Balcerowicz it was created. And in Hungary, created Czechoslovakia and went out of our control quite well, and divided, by the way, no problem. And Ukraine is does, though I am well aware that it would spoil the full program, interfere with what you can. Not daring to more aggression, will not stop before any immoral ways pressure. I am confident that Yushchenko after the poisoning survived only by a miracle.

- Do you believe that reforms can be carried out at the same time tightening the nuts?

- And the only way they should be done! The peculiarity of Russian Reforms that there reformer must have a very great power, otherwise the power will be lost, and reforms will stop. Stolypin, for example, did not have the fullness of this, he constantly strove to link arms and accused of dictatorship. And he fought only with the terrorists, while offering effective solutions to real social problems! And he destroyed the community quite rightly - without abandoning the community in the twentieth century could not be development.

Tolstoy wrote to him that private ownership of land is the greatest evil, and that the destruction of the community is immoral. Stolypin replied respectfully and seriously: "Poverty, for me, the worst of slavery. It is ridiculous to talk to these people about freedom or liberty. Please bring them to the level of well-being before that, at least in the lower face, where a minimum satisfaction makes a person free. And this is achieved only with the free application of labor to the ground, that is, if there is ownership of the land. " So who is right and who is a hopeless idealist? Stolypin did not have a few years or even months to bury the idea of ​​revolution in Russia.

Russian tradition was interrupted in the seventeenth not revived and recovered after the ninety-one, and while we will not let a line under sovetchinoy - she will not recover. We are staying in a quasi-state simulation, which has no legal basis, which has no purpose and program of the future.

The existing system is also aware that can only be maintained in the vacuum of values ​​- why today there is no heroes or antiheroes, no this history textbook. The history of the twentieth century did not written - it is rewritten every decade, according to the needs of the moment. However, Vladimir Solovyov Kliuchevskoi and reissue 150 years, this is a real story, because in the pre-Soviet Russian censorship of historical research was banned.

strong Russia with its scale

- Do not you think that the shortest way out of the circle of Russian - still scrapping centralized, pyramidal power? While Russia is so vast and so centralized - there can not be controlled otherwise.

- So you're offering her territorial break?

- I do not propose today to offer dangerous. There are supporters of federalization, they suggest, will not name names ...

- Federalization or rupture? It is important. One historian who lives in the United States, appeared in one of the capital's universities offer separate Siberia, the Urals, to do a small European Russia ... I asked him if I played in the United States and proposed to separate Texas and California - have time I would reach out of the classroom or be tied right there? Why should I have to treat headache guillotine? Or do you think that the Tver province, God forbid, after its "sovereignty" anyone at all noticed on the world map? Russia retains its potential until it is huge. The time will come, and we realize this potential. Never before decay has not removed a single problem. And on what basis, on what borders to share? Distribution of maximum power to the ground - that is another matter, it is high time to implement; but to say that the scale of the territory determines the pyramidal power ... On the contrary, this huge territory just naturally get away from inappropriate centralization, strategic issues - for the center, regional - to place them out of Moscow can not be solved!

- You say that with raw economy must end, and what the industry is necessary to develop in the first place?

- All. Russia has in reserve the whole periodic table, the first in the world freshwater resources, virtually inexhaustible reserves of oil, the giant raw land, and if, say, Andrew Parshev in his book "Why Russia is not America" ​​denies us the efficiency of the economy because of the severity of the climate - we really northern states - it overlooks the fact that America is on the air conditioning facilities in the summer spends three times more than the whole of Russia for heating in winter. If our natural resources begin to process ...

Propylene, a product of the sixth redistribution of oil, 1,000 times more expensive than crude oil - a few years, you can get rid of poverty and build another Russia!

- Good. And who will do all this great work on the revival of the country?

- Keep quiet about the leaders, but they are, by Yavlinsky to Kasyanov, excellent, by the way, an economist and a decent man. And then, speaking of the people and the corruption of the state, for some reason, is excluded from these people personally, myself, do not you ready to revive, to work, to believe in the end? After all, a sense of hopelessness - it is not for our people as soon as certainty and be designated landmarks - all will become clear why live. We need another TV, other media!

- And in the history of the Soviet period, there were some bright moments?

- Have you ever wondered why Khrushchev was forced to expose the cult of Stalin? Stalinism was understood as a dead end, this awareness came after two major uprisings in the camps in Norilsk and Vorkuta in the summer and autumn of 1953.

In Norilsk, about 20,000 were on strike in the Vorkuta area of ​​the city went, seizing weapons, about 100 thousand prisoners. Most of them were political - Bandera and Vlasov. Khrushchev quickly understood and began to close the camp. The revolution changed a lot of prisoners. Aloud, he said only about Stalin at the Twentieth Congress, which was invented as a normal political mythology and try to assign a non-existent party services.

And after the worst night comes the dawn!



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