The main event of the week - an event that did not happen. This, of course, the absence of any coherent response from the Russian to the "compelling and eloquent" outcome "referendum" in two south-eastern regions of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk. On the nature and ravishing details of this procedure has been written enough (including in the pages of the "hedgehog)", so I allow myself to dwell only on the preliminary results of the activities carried out and started with a single purpose - to destroy the Ukrainian statehood.
The beneficiary of the project is in a single person. His name - Vladimir Putin. The Russian state only docile and yet reliable tool in his hands.
It seems to be much evidence of that in the case of the south-eastern Ukraine, Russia will go on the thumb in the Crimea way. Here's oppression of Russian-speaking citizens, bloody Kiev junta, ready at all Russophobian West and mobilization call, "We are not abandoning their" ... That is a complete set of artificially simulated circumstances, heavily seasoned with propaganda clichés.
Circumstances to justify the invasion of "peacekeeping forces" that already get tired to wait for the signal. A messenger with orders still no ... Last smear on the painting - a "referendum". It seems that even pull ?! Especially that "the right sector" and "Bandera" has drowned in the blood of Russian villages and towns! But Putin troops did not move. While not moved.
Many analysts and observers doubted before that Moscow will be decided on the disclosure and recognition of its direct influence on the situation in Ukraine. And this confidence was based on the argument purely practical nature. Say, Donbass not Crimea, Moscow hundred years it unnecessarily and just lie unsupportable burden on the domestic economy, which is already seems to incense breathes. However, I firmly believe that any pragmatics in relation to Russia Ukrainian crisis has deep secondary. Here at the forefront, in my view, go emotions, feelings. And above all - a feeling of hatred. I think that Putin hates Ukraine as nothing, and never in my life. And all my heart desires on the head of the Ukrainian people have fallen only possible adversity and misfortune. And ready, as we have seen many sacrifices for the implementation of this dream. But many - does not mean everything. Here, actually, we are getting to a sharp needles cherished testicle. So why Putin has not moved so far to the troops Donbass?
Today is very popular point of view that, having crossed the red line in the case of the Crimea, Russia has made it clear to the world that is not afraid of the reaction of the West. Perhaps, by the way, so it was initially. For one simple reason - in a patriotic frenzy nobody really figured out the possible consequences of this reaction. And if some highbrow and counted, then was afraid to report them on the court. Worked fear of being accused of criminal cowardice against the background of unprecedented popular uplift and national standing up from his knees. Meanwhile, it is now abundantly clear: the factor of direct pressure on Putin - the only thing that can cool his ardor, and perhaps return to a more or less sober understanding of what is happening.
The assertion that the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia will only strengthen Putin's popularity in the country, profoundly mistaken. That is among the marginalized and demoralized part of society, perhaps, strengthen, but today's Russia is not ready to pull the belt endlessly prokovyrivaya in the belt more and more holes. Large cities will be extremely painful to part with the achieved thanks to the oil and gas pump standard of living. And this level is determined not only by the state purse, but also numerous options, without which modern man already feels extremely uncomfortable. You can list them for a long time, but they are obvious. That is not in itself the West can stop Putin, and the prospect of losing popularity in the country with all its consequences. But while it only grows, you say ... Well, it just yet. Have you already started to tighten your belt?
Real economic sanctions (eg, comparable to those that have been applied to Iran) can not just harm the Russian economy. They can actually destroy it. Today, when we are talking about the fact that so-called sectoral sanctions - our future as soon as possible, would be nice to already realize what they will. For example, in the banking sector, where all Russian operators (not only the state-owned banks) will lose the opportunity to carry out their activities outside the sovereign jurisdiction. Closure of correspondent accounts throughout the Western world, if not immediately bring down our entire banking system, then just throw it on a decade ago.
As for the statements bouncy, as if at any moment Russia is ready to diversify its energy exports, reorienting it to China, this is ridiculous and irresponsible statements. Russia to this today totally unprepared and, I suspect, will not be ready in five years. The prospect of substitution of imported technologies to domestic (this past Wednesday, Putin said at a meeting with representatives of the "defense") would require global modernization of entire industries, for which we have today no power, neither the resources nor the technical and scientific personnel.
Yet we talk about foreign exchange reserves, which supposedly should last for several years, while forgetting to clarify that today (as opposed to, say, from the eve of the 2008 crisis), these stocks do not even cover the total debt of our companies. Ah, you say, we will not return the loans ... Well, well.
In short, in the short term it can go about recreating the socialist economic model with all its consequences. Chief among them - to build a socialist economy actually only in a totalitarian state, where all the levers of control and management are in the same hands. This thesis, once formulated by Yegor Gaidar, has not lost its relevance.
So, I think that Vladimir Putin has already realized that a country with such a prospect does not agree. Do not agree when you realize that in practice means being cut off from the free world. And then there is the only threat that the Russian authorities consider worthwhile - a threat to the stability of the regime in Russia.
Of course, the citizens of Russia will have to resolve a situation and build their future on the basis of their own ideas about justice. But the West would cost to delve deeper into the essence of Putin's current agenda and develop a clear program of action in relation to Russia, based on solid principles - yet, despite all the assurances of loyalty to the liberal-democratic values, the Russians are too often faced with the very double standards a commitment that both parties are so fond of blaming each other. This becomes especially noticeable when corrupt regimes drawn into their schemes of prominent representatives of the Western establishment. However, even the degree of pressure on the West Vladimir Putin, which we see today, is already bearing fruit. The main thing - do not leave the efforts in this direction and not to believe any promises.
Other way to restore world order is being built over decades is not there. And by the way, Ukraine is also no other way to save. Your text to link ...