About deserved rating of Putin Bashny.Net

VTsIOM report that Putin's rating after the Crimea has reached record levels. Even in traditionally "protest" Moscow and St. Petersburg, he again exceeded 71%.

I have no reason to trust VTsIOMu - for reasons that there has already been explained in some detail. To quote a couple of paragraphs of the September (2013) post the collapse of sociology court:

our grants sociology, trusted authorities, and a significant part of the opposition-minded public with these predictions wrought irrevocably. They are all critically overstated the level of support for the candidate from the authorities underestimated the rating of the opposition challenger, and a turnout very precisely pleased finger to the sky. The error for each of the parameters several times exceeded the level of "permissible error" which sotsioluhi for themselves "scientifically" established.

Frankly, I do nothing else from them, and did not expect, because with their techniques, they are stuck in the past millennium. When you try on a sample of 1000 persons to guess the mood of millions, the final result of any miracle may not reflect what whatever the reality, but the actual composition of the sample itself - and it is, if you honestly it was, is completely random, and not It owes nothing to truly reflect, in addition to the very sentiments of a single thousand.

Quite irrespective of the above, I should point out that in the history of the Crimea particular Putin looks much better than his fellow opponents, both individually and collectively. Because Putin, even though he improvises a lot, working in the conflict to address very specific and clear public objectives that he set himself. But the Ukrainian authorities, the EU, the US, Canada, Japan and Australia, stupid chew snot. Their position from the beginning to the end looks inconsistent, illogical and self-contradictory. The main problem - they are not able to say what they really want and seek. When there is a meaningful, clear and articulated goals, then any individual measures and statements look silly and absurd shooting in milk.

This is best exemplified in the Crimea does not (where everything is just beginning), and Egypt and Syria, where the West has failed to define the objectives articulate a couple of years. In Egypt, Mubarak maintained for decades, and then suddenly the West began to rejoice on the theme of his overthrow, then stopped cheering, frowned at the actions of the Islamists, who originally stood for the entire dvizhuha, and began to condemn. Next in Egypt had a rather bloody military coup - and again, Western politicians huddled in a fit of schizophrenia. On the one hand, it is clear that the military junta, available legally condemned Mubarak and imprisoned the first democratically elected president of the country, for the whole of the civilized world is preferable to binge Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis, behind which looms clearly "Al-Qaeda". With other countries, civilian casualties is necessary to condemn the junta and, returning to power, put the people no less than the time Mubarak, who tried to maintain that power. So junta condemned. And common sense tells us one simple thing: in the Arab Muslim country can not exist no power, nor pro-Western or anti-Western, without the willingness to use firearms, prison and torture to suppress their opponents. It is a fact that should be taken out of the brackets. As it has always carried the brackets in the old days, supporting "their" man-eaters against the "enemy." Because the court was the Cold War, and without exception, Western leaders believe in the existence of their national interests in every conflict outside NATO, whether it is Iran, Iraq, Vietnam and Cambodia, or India and Pakistan.

The Cold War is over, and now the US, European, Canadian or Australian voters are very hard to believe that somewhere in Homs, Darfur, Alexandria or Yevpatoria left at their country's national interests, for which the soldiers of the NATO armies worth dying and killing. In place of the black-white paradigm of "his / Alien" came to some vague "universal values" such as the idea that to shoot peaceful demonstrators is not good. America from these civilizational change won much, I suppose that today there is a repeat unthinkable massacre at Waco, and the situation would Johnstown razrulit otherwise. But the application of this approach to other civilizations - is like judging the participants boxing match under the Criminal Code "Beating". The concept of the value of human life, adopted in Western countries, is not applicable to the oriental despotism. And when it becomes the basis for the formation of foreign policy instead of clear origin "his / Alien" it is no longer foreign policy and shit.

This can be clearly seen from the example of the Syrian crisis. My position on this crisis was simple: when two groups of cannibals kill each other, the interference of foreign forces on the side of one of the groups can benefit. It can only redistribute the total expense of civilian casualties - in favor of the company cannibals, for which blended the third force. I remember the time I was subjected to anathema and declared fascist grandmaster Kasparov, Piontkovsky, and many other fans of "humanitarian bombing". They called a fascist, denounced and exposed. But the majority of the population of Western countries quite clearly voted against two of his climbing legs in Syria margarine, the type of interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. So when Putin suggested saving formula that allowed Obama and his NATO colleagues to forget about unpopular in their countries promises to escalate in Syria, were all secretly grateful to him. While the Nobel Peace Prize that year gave not Putin, and the International Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, gave her exactly Syria. That is a happy opportunity for Obama, Cameron & Co. quietly come off with their own armored vehicles, the introduction of which would be turned into a fight for each political death.

The current crisis of the Crimean - repeating exactly the same parsley, only without the participation of Arab dictators and, accordingly, no large-scale bloodshed. Putin has a clear understanding that he can now triumphantly join the Crimea with Russia, spit on any protests in Ukraine and the West. Crimea itself is, of course, no one gift is not necessary, which is why it and in 1954, and in 1991 gave Ukraine is so easy, and she for the last 23 years has not given anyone reason to think that he appreciates this gift Moscow. For the Russian economy the sample 2014 Peninsula - another burden, a new subsidized region such as South Ossetia, which now will have to invest billions in infrastructure, and to urgently take on allowances not only local pensioners (they are unpretentious), but also local bandyukov-embezzlers (appetites, certainly whetted euphoria fraternal annexation). Russians before vacationing in the Crimea and buying real estate there, the new status of the region, at best, gain nothing, and at worst - will lose very much, for a dozen different reasons, which are now fashionable to discuss. And the biggest threat - no shortages of water, electricity, transport, and those very local bandyukov appetites. Over the Crimea is now looming shadow of bad budgetary infusions, and at every professional in the field of power weaning property that prospect is a strong urge to derbanit the land, which is about the golden rain spilled. Not by chance in many Russian criminal authorities, safely held in due time by the Soviet and Post-Soviet camps, prisons and foreign bloody showdown lads were killed in a relatively quiet period between 2009 and 2013 - just as the War of the olympic bad money. But do not let the bad news, especially since I did not write about the Crimea, where he was since August 1998.

The meaning of Putin's current venture is well understood only in the context of the political situation in Russia. The system of government struck an all-out corruption, which, as we saw in the case Serdyukov, Rosagroleasing and suburban prosecutors, it is impossible to fight, even fun, because the possibility of illegal enrichment at the expense of the budget - the only real factor in the consolidation of pro-government elites. In this post-Soviet period Russia has not learned either invent or produce any competitive products for foreign markets: the entire economy rests on milking exhaustible natural resources of the motherland. Medicine and underfunded social sphere, education and science - in the deep ass all Medvedev's talk of modernization and innovation proved to be a miserable farce. Those 20 years in which China and India have invested in high-tech and intellectual development of its huge human resources, the Russian authorities have spent on oil and gas pipe cut content. Normal life in the country is unthinkable without paying endless and varied bribes - for treatment, education for children, deal with the property, state body, any form of entrepreneurship ... Of course, the situation is fraught with social explosion - even with this patient and ready to fight for their rights by the population as is our. And Putin's most important task in such input - infopovody generate bright, distracting attention from its Russian inhabitants of nothing. Maybe he does not know anything else, but this task brilliantly copes national leader. Olympics, Paralympics, the annexation of the Crimea - exactly such infopovody, compared with which the collapse of the science, the failure of the Pension Fund and utility tariffs represented a trifle frivolous. And those who seriously discuss in this fateful hour of corruption, the purchasing power of the ruble, ramps for the disabled, or the fate of orphans, scrimping and looks pathetic loser, foreign agent, and the "fifth column". And the logic of the moment allows you to make all the relevant definition in the Criminal Code, in order restore the unforgettable 58th article against the "enemies of the people».

In the West there is absolutely no scenario of the current conflict over Crimea. There is only an understanding that not a soul in the world (including Ukrainians) do not want the war to return to the realities of 15 March. Suffice it to say that even the "Privat" Kolomoisky, Dnipropetrovsk oligarch and the new governor, who recently accepted the role of one of the pillars and guarantors of the new government in Ukraine, announced yesterday the launch of a re-registration procedure, which takes into account the new status of Crimea. That is, the search for the legal form of recognition that no sovereignty of Ukraine is no longer there, and there is a fully independent from her subject, where "Privatbank" would like to work, not as a foreign (read: Ukrainian) structure, and on the basis of the laws that it will be accepted local legal entities. In my opinion, Kolomoisky here demonstrates a laudable and pragmatic common sense. If tomorrow the West and Kiev, followed suit by announcing that the theme of the War of Crimea exhausted in a realistic manner, it would be an ideal way out of the crisis for all parties - and by the way, a terrible blow to all the plans of further escalation, which are and may have our supporters inflating world conflagration to solve Russian domestic problems.

Unfortunately, this development is almost no hope. Not having a clear plan of action, nor the idea of ​​the usefulness of the results of these actions, the opponents of the annexation of the Crimea will now be to create the appearance of the struggle for translating the arrows on March 15 - and this is far more utopian chimera today than rollback events to Kiev on 21 February. When you're not ready to fight - a very silly waving fists and threatened retaliation. These mock threat addressed on display to the general public, - epic fail, because there are literally tomorrow, this is the audience will see how powerless you are in reality, and how right your opponent when not paying any attention to your words. According to Turchynov Declaration "On the struggle for the liberation of Ukraine," the temporal power in Kiev, this does not reflect. And for good reason. Because this particular incident for Putin - all no-brainer. He then even do nothing, quite silent. If Ukraine will come out of the visa agreement with Russia, first of all it would close the border Russia to millions of migrant workers of their own, and leave without a livelihood of their families. Then all these people become supporters of the revolution in its hostages. Here we can recall the example of Georgia, which is also trying to "punish" Russia by introducing visas. And quickly I realized that even here the principle of "an eye for an eye" is not working. Because the closure of the Russian border post-Soviet republics - is not symmetrical damage to both parties to the conflict (according to the "Let me pull up the two eyes, just to have a neighbor knocked one"), and two strikes on the interests of the same parties. From the fact that Georgian citizens are no longer allowed into Russia, the post-war Georgia gained nothing, but from the fact that the Russians are no longer allowed into Georgia, she also lost outright. Therefore, Saakashvili in his time fairly quickly to abolish visas for Russians - and even Turchinov not smart enough to ask this example.

So in this situation, Putin's actions appear reasonable and purposefully, and the actions and rhetoric of his Western opponents and Kiev is like playing stupid giveaway. And Putin did not prevaricate, when he says that the fate of the further escalation does not depend on the Kremlin and the West. If the West would support the course of the Kremlin at confrontation, inflating bogey "external threat", the next program number, Putin get legitimacy to "protect the Russian population" in the Donetsk and Lugansk. But if the West and Kiev come to their senses, and ask yourself, "What are we really want?", The Crimea on the whole "world conflagration" immediately and over. It will immediately draw a red line, which could follow the real and not funny countermeasures - and Putin has proven in this story a hard pragmatism, for it will not climb.

But as long as the West and the Kiev audience cheer plaintive cries of "Do not let the annexation of the Crimea", Putin will continue to reap the benefits of an escalation of established proxy. Including the growth rankings in the background of total corruption of all government institutions in Russia.

Source dolboeb.livejournal.com/2653375.html