FUTURE southeastern Ukraine SOLVED IN COMING DAYS

< ALEXANDER RYKLIN


Apparently, the situation in the north of Donetsk Region is developing today in the worst scenario. The attack on a checkpoint near Sloviansk, which occurred on the night of Saturday to Sunday (ie Easter night), claimed several lives. In the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine claim that the attack killed three locals. Separatists say six victims. Several hours later, the self-proclaimed mayor Vyacheslav Ponomarev appealed to Vladimir Putin. In the appeal, including, says: "Vladimir Vladimirovich, we have a small country town, and we are trying to conquer the fascists, imperialists of all stripes ... kill our brothers, causing injury to the civilian population ... So soon, please, consider the introduction of peacekeeping contingent on the territory of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk regions to protect civilians from attacks by the "right sector" and the National Guard of Ukraine, which carry with them only death. They want to make us slaves. They do not talk with us, and just kill. "
No "right sector" nor the power structures of Ukraine did not support any military operations was on Easter night in the Donetsk region. Officials in Kiev speak of a pre-planned provocation.
Provocation undoubtedly occurred. The only question is, who was her inspiration and initiator. Same Ponomarev argues that people in Slavyansk there is no doubt about the involvement in the killing of people "peacefully celebrate Easter at the checkpoint," representatives of the radical nationalists. Say, in one of the burned down cars attackers were found business card manager "right quadrant" Dmitry Yarosh. It is strange that in the same machine is not found detailed instructions about the attack in Slavonic, signed by the same Yarosh ...
Meanwhile, the formal basis for the introduction of a "limited contingent of peacekeeping forces" received - people died, fighters for the federalization of Ukraine. In Crimea, notice to such excesses is not reached.
Even assuming that the Russian law enforcement agencies did not have an armed clash in Slavyansk nothing that is to say, an initiative from below, designed to encourage Moscow to take stronger action, still have to respond to Vladimir Putin. And in the very near future. Fork simple: either to give Ukraine the opportunity to decide for their own internal problems, or in the next few days (and possibly time) to begin troop ground operation. The costs of both of these scenarios are obvious.
In the first case, Vladimir Putin himself becomes the victim of a massive propaganda of their own media. Have to explain to citizens why in one case, "we are not abandoning their", and in another - give them to be devoured by "fascists and imperialists." Than Russian-speaking Donbass miners worse Crimeans Russian speaking? In addition, under attack is Putin's reputation as a liberator of the Russian people from the yoke of Bandera and collector of Russian lands. His fame winner will be darkened, and the image of a successful and popular leader of a great country will be in jeopardy.
So what - is a war? But this decision Vladimir Putin has very little time. Will take a day or two, the conflict in Slavyansk cease to be so relevant (or, worse, become clear), Ukrainian troops gradually take control of the region and the time will be missed. In short, there is every reason to believe that the outcome of dramatic events in the south-east of Ukraine will come very soon. Today only hope that Vladimir Putin is still not dare to start a full scale war, the consequences of which even scary to think.

In the photo: Ukraine. Donetsk region. On 20 April. The New People's Militia fighters checkpoint Donbass at the Rostov-Kharkov, near from the Slavic.
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