One of the keys to understanding the motives of Putin
Today, there is, perhaps, the thinking person in the world who is not trying to find an answer to the question of the ultimate goals of the president of Russia. The question we as experts are daily politicians, diplomats, journalists, members of our families. Gorshenin Institute draws your attention to the text of a Russian journalist and military analyst Vladimir Voronov, published in the Russian monthly magazine "Top Secret" February 24, 2014. Carefully worked this text, we have come to some conclusions. Of course, the conclusions are based on the hypothesis that the author operated reliable and verified information.
1. It seems that the Russian leader seriously preparing for a third world war. This is indicated by the volume and nature of the orders for the military-industrial complex.
2. It destroys the myth of the dependence of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex of the Russian military-industrial complex. In contrast, the Russian military-industrial complex in the strategic context is highly dependent on the military industrial complex of Ukraine.
3. In light of the threat of a hypothetical association between Ukraine and the European Union and rapprochement with NATO tasks the Russian defense industry enterprises are under threat and, therefore, access to the Ukrainian defense enterprises must be preserved at all costs.
4. Geography of Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises, with which Russia links its strategic doctrine, strikingly coincides with the geography of the points of instability in Ukraine. At these points, the same scenario and the same time, conditions are created to legitimize the annexation of these regions is now on the Crimean scenario. Please note that one of the points of the dense concentration of such facilities is, including the city of Kiev.
To this we add the thesis of a Russian military experts that Ukraine may be interested in Russia as a huge mobilization reserve of manpower.
Against the background of the events on the Maidan, and thriller with the release of Yanukovych loan of 15 billion dollars, few people noticed that the defense industry of Ukraine suddenly frequent high-ranking Russian officials.
So, at the beginning of December 2013 blitsdosmotr key facilities Ukrainian "defense" made the chief overseer of the Russian defense industry, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. In particular, the special interest of the officials called the company related to the rocket-space sphere - Dnepropetrovsk State Enterprise (SE) "Southern Machine-Building Plant" them. AM Makarov "(" Pivdenmash ") and the State Enterprise" Design Bureau "Yuzhnoye" them. MK Yangelya. " On "Pivdenmash" Russian delegation was interested in assembly production of space-rocket technology. Rogozin turned his attention to Ukrainian shipbuilding - Nicholas' Black Sea Shipyard "(the construction of large ships) and the State Enterprise" Scientific and Production Complex gazoturbinostroeniya "Zorya" - "Mashproekt" (power plants for warships). Rogozin undergone inspections and Zaporozhye AVIAMOTORNAJa concerns - CB "Ivchenko-Progress" and "Motor Sich" and the jewel of Ukrainian aviation industry - Kiev "Antonov". There Mr. Rogozin discussed the issue of cooperation in the production of AN-148 / AN-158 and the schedule of joint work on the program of military transport aircraft An-70, and raised the question of resuming serial production of AN-124-100 "Ruslan».
Along the way, Russian officials suddenly began to say emphatically speech to the Ukrainian armourers "Here in Nikolaev shipyards - said Dmitry Rogozin on" Echo of Moscow ", - a" 61 Communards "This Black Sea Shipyard - they are just dead, abandoned. As in the movie "Stalker" Tarkovsky ... If you take the aviation industry - it is also necessary to nobody ... "And save the Ukrainian defense industry may, of course, only Russia:" It's a matter of survival for them, they have no other chance ... There is no alternative. What we offer, there is no alternative. It is not a matter of compromise, it is a question of survival of Ukraine. " But as soon as Ukraine will meet Russia, "it will all be uploaded orders," because "right now we can just load Ukrainian enterprises our general orders." Earlier it sounded hints that Russia can be placed on the defense industry of Ukraine up to 10 percent of its state defense order: Now the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is obliged to make purchases at low prices, but not for the fantastic, which are now aching domestic manufacturer - that is, they say, can the same purchase from Ukrainian defense. Some experts have estimated that the share of Ukrainian Russian state defense order, and all can reach as much as 40 percent - all the same, they say, the power in Ukraine are idle.
And here it is, a helping hand? - Much of the credit for the $ 15 billion allocated by Moscow in late 2013 for Kiev should go, among other things, to maintain the Ukrainian defense, perhaps, even the lion's share.
It is hardly accidental, and stuffing a series of materials in the media, telling the terrible situation of the military industrial complex of Ukraine: they suggest that almost all businesses Ukrainian defense industry survive only by Russian contracts, half of its production of military industry of Ukraine and all manufactures in Russia, with more than 70 percent components and raw materials it receives from Russia. However, no illusions about the "European" military-industrial complex of its prospects in Ukraine does not feed one - in Europe, its military industry through the roof.
But the Russian concern is truly touching - show it to your competitor! And it would be naive to believe that Moscow is driven by altruistic concern for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex - its viability, profitability, booming, creating jobs. More logical would have looked like an attempt to seize the good "competing firm", taking advantage of the crisis of power and economy in Ukraine. What seems to be partly confirmed by the performance of Rogozin: although he said that "we do not go now then, to take on some Ukrainian plants", but acknowledged that the United Engine Corporation of Russia has already "creates a single engineering Center, which is attached in the form of a joint venture GP "Ivchenko-Progress" and concern "Antonov", also create a joint venture with "United Aircraft Corporation».
But the theory of "direct Hapki" banal and straightforward, as well as the version that has circulated among political analysts of Kiev - that the Russians want to get their hands on the remains of Ukrainian defense industry, in order to finally smother the competition. To begin with, that all the really profitable projects have long mastered the oligarchs Ukraine itself - or anyone seriously believes that Akhmetov, Firtash, Poroshenko, Dobkin and Kernes not eaten it all themselves, thinking of kindness to invite cake Russians?! < br />
It is significant that the problem of military-industrial complex cooperation between the two countries are actively engaged not greedy oligarchs and government officials only. Russian arms business leaders generally do not show any enthusiasm - it is frankly boring. Although, if only because they are quite satisfied with the situation where they can dictate the pricing on its products, twisting the hands of the military. The Kremlin has pledged to give Kiev part of its defense orders, but management "Uralvagonzavod" or "Klimov" the idea, to put it mildly, is not close. It seems that business here at all to do with it, and the issues are purely national.
MIC appalling situation in Ukraine and its dependence on its eastern neighbor - an obvious thing. But this coin has a flip side: not only the military-industrial complex of Ukraine is dependent on Russia, but the Russian military-industrial complex and highly dependent on the Ukrainian defense. Previewed as cooperation is vital to address some very important challenges - now and immediately.
Try to understand. At the end of 2010, Russia announced and then approved the State Armaments Program for 2011-2020, to fund planned allocate about 20, 7 trillion rubles. To realize this ambitious program originally calculated their hands exclusively military-industrial complex (except perhaps only the construction of helicopter type "Mistral"). Although from the outset it was obvious that the policy of "self-reliance" is not very realistic. December 3, 2012 a group of experts of the Public Council of the Military-Industrial Commission under the Government of the Russian Federation presented an analytical report "Russia as an importer of arms: Challenges and Opportunities", the conclusions of which read: a fully autonomous Russian defense industry is impossible in principle. "Our KB is now overloaded with work. We do not even have time to do what orders the Ministry of Defense "- is told in December 2013, Dmitry Rogozin. One can not help admitting that Moscow has intensified its military-industrial contacts with Kiev not a good life: MIC Russia has been unable to independently realize rearmament program.
"Motor Sich", the monopolist
"Now we put the engines on foreign helicopters and airplanes - said in an interview with the newspaper" Vzglyad "Col. Gen. Anatoly Sitnov stock, the former chief Russian Armed Forces. - However, if tomorrow the border with this country will close all the stops. " An unnamed general state - Ukraine. And here's a fresh facts: literally just Zaporozhye SE "Ivchenko-Progress" received from Russia a technical specification for the creation of an aircraft engine more powerful than the AI-222-25, which is equipped with combat training aircraft Yak-130. Because, as the news agency "Interfax-AVN," planned to create in Russia a light attack aircraft based on the training and combat aircraft Yak-130 aircraft engine requires an increased traction. Actually the Yak-130 is equipped with AI-222-25 engine, specifically for this machine is designed with the same "Ivchenko-Progress", and it produces Zaporozhye "Motor Sich". In 2004, the Russian airline engine manufacturers have mastered the production of this engine, it only release in the amount of not too significant, remains a major supplier of "Motor Sich", the development had to order a modification too, in Zaporizhia.
The value of the "Motor Sich" for our aircraft can not be overestimated least because its engines almost all fly our helicopters, including fighting: all versions of the Mi-8, Mi-171, Mi-24, Mi-35, MI- 26, Mi-28, Ka-27, Ka-29, Ka-32, Ka-50, Ka-52 ... Some of these engines produced (or will of the supplied accessories) in Russia, but - only a part, and not large. Only the December 18, 2012 entirely of Russian components managed to collect VK-2500 engines for the Ka-52 and Mi-28 - the domestic version TV3-117VMA, once developed "Motor Sich" specifically for the Ka-50. Previously, the bulk of parts for VC-2500 came to Russia from the "Motor Sich».
As is known, the Russian military is calculated in a fairly short period of time to get over 1,000 new attack helicopters (excluding transport), and this is no less than 3,000 engines - two for each basic helicopter and at least one spare. But the Russian producer with such a large-scale release of a new engine deal is clearly not in the condition in 2013, had planned to issue only 50 such engines, but that it made, victorious reports had been received. But even if everything goes according to plan, to implement programs of this helicopter is still not enough, also need to change the old engines. Because as the main supplier of the VC-2500 and accessories for its assembly, and other engines for helicopters Russian Air Force - are still Ukrainian "Motor Sich". In addition, the remaining engine manufacturer for operating in the Russian Air Force and our civil airline planes: IL-18, IL-38, AN-8, AN-12, AN-24, AN-26, AN-30, AN-32, An- 72, AN-74, AN-124, AN-140, AN-148, Be-12, Be-200, Yak-40, Yak-42 ...
As a part of the Russian Air Force at least 90 training aircraft L-39 Albatros, which is still taught to fly future military pilots - their engines also makes the "Motor Sich" ... Among other things, it is the "Motor Sich" main manufacturer of various kinds of aircraft auxiliary engines - air supply, power supply on-board network of aircraft, heating salons helicopters and airplanes, launching their main engines ... It seems that in the field of helicopter engines (and the aforementioned aircraft) dependence on Russian aviators Ukrainian aviamotorostroiteley critical.
Even the President of the Russian squadron - Special Flight Detachment "Russia" Office of the President (UDP) - turned out to be dependent on the Ukrainian aviation industry! In 2012-2013. Voronezh aircraft factory built under contract with the UDP two AN-148-100E - they are collected in Voronezh - a large extent from Ukrainian components. These aircraft additionally ordered (presumably as a spare) are two of the D-436-148 Zaporozhye plant "Motor Sich».
And the Russian Air Force have a vested interest in the military transport aircraft of the Kiev State Enterprise "Antonov". Of particular interest to the military - a joint serial production of AN-70 and AN-124: Russian IL-76 and its modifications this gap does not close, nothing is similar to that design "Antonovites" our aviakontserna there is not expected.
According to available information, the aviation industry Ukrainian defense industry produces much more interesting. For example, the guided air weapons: Kiev concern "Artem" produces missiles "air-air" medium-range R-27 (ER1, P1, ET1, T1) for the MiG-29, Su-27, Su-33, Su-34 and Su-35. At the moment, "Artem" - the only post-Soviet space rocket manufacturer for this class of machines. The Kyiv Central Design Bureau "Arsenal" developed infra-red (IR) homing (GOS) for the missiles R-60, R-60M, R-73 close air combat. The assets of the same "Arsenal" aircraft targeting systems (for automatic problem solving aiming machine-gun armament and precision bombing) is installed on the aircraft "MiG", "dry" helicopters "Kamov" and "Mile". There's also made helmet-mounted target designation system (NSTS), "Sch-3UM-11" - used by pilots on the aircraft such as the Su-27, MiG-29, together with the missile system R-73 and NSTS "Sura" - for the Su-30. Another Ukrainian aviation industry produces any "small things" like Parachute brake systems - for the Su-24, Su-27, MiG-29, and other actuators hydro aviasistem - for the Yak-130, Ka-52, Mi-24, MI- 28, Mi-8/17, MiG-27, MiG-29, Su-27, Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, Tu-95 and Tu-160.
Do not swim?
Another industry where do without Ukraine is possible, but extremely difficult and expensive to afford - military shipbuilding. According to the approved by the Kremlin military shipbuilding program until the end of 2020 the Russian Navy should receive 24 submarines (eight missile submarines and 16 attack submarines) and 54 surface ships of various classes. (According to others, it is about building 40 submarines - 10 nuclear submarines, 10 nuclear attack submarines and 20 non-nuclear and at least 65 surface ships.) The total amount of appropriations for the implementation of the state armaments program 2011-2020 in the part of the Navy - five trillion rubles (about 166 billion dollars), of which 47 percent will be allocated for the construction of new ships. However, at the meeting of 21 May 2013 in Sochi, Putin attacked the shipbuilders: still "remain problems with the timing and quality of execution of orders," "unreasonably prolonged construction and transfer of the Navy of a number of nuclear submarines and surface ships." In fact, it is said that the program of military shipbuilding to the brink of collapse, as plain text, and then said Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. Soon, the curators of the Russian military-industrial complex have sharply increased their activities in the Ukrainian direction, often at the Nikolayev shipyard.
Prosaic explanation for this phenomenon in December 2013 have sounded from the lips of the executive director of the Association of Shipbuilders of Ukraine "Ukrsudprom" Yuri Alexeyev, in Russia there is a lack banal construction sites. Simply put, the Russian shipbuilders are not in a position to master the immense rearmament program of its fleet. First of all, in terms of the construction of aircraft carriers, cruisers, special and auxiliary vessels - tankers, tugs and ice so on. In Ukraine there are three shipyard in Nikolayev alone, factories in Kherson, Kerch, Sevastopol. "Russia is a great program for the construction of ships and Ukraine would help its implementation, - informed the same Alekseev. - Ukrainian shipyards loaded with no more than 30 percent. " As for the construction of aircraft carriers, he said, the case is problematic situation - we need a huge investment. But, he said, the most important advantage of Ukrainian shipbuilders to Russian - the ability to build large ships of up to 180 ths. Tons, "We could offer partners build highly saturated buildings with the subsequent installation at the Russian factories of weapons and equipment with sensitive components." < br />