919
About sanity Putin
So, judging by recent events, the issue of Putin's sanity returns to the agenda. I just say: I do not think it's right when insanity is called a trivial error in the calculation or assessment of the situation.
I've already said that Chancellor Merkel's assessment of Putin's "detachment from reality" should not be interpreted literally, because, along with the long-playing foreign policy problems, GDP, has carried out the world denounced the annexation of the Crimea, received the support of domestic growth and popularity, which is simply not something to compare. That is not so simple.
But now we have received confirmation of the return. Proposals that Russia has asked Americans do not even make public, not intended for Russian domestic consumption, that is, for the zombie aggressive chauvinist propaganda of the population. Moreover, according to the urgency with which Putin was in a hurry to bring to their so-called Obama's proposals for the settlement, he begins to realize the far-reaching consequences of their expansionist and imperial policy. As well as it is close in the red line stands today the future of his country. So, would represent and the recipient of his message and his system of values.
But in the end, after a late Putin panic call to Riyadh at the emergency meeting in Paris organized by the Russians still have submitted (in writing :)) totally unacceptable, offensive and detached from real life offers that could not even be the basis for any meaningful negotiations.
I hope everyone understands what I mean. Sometimes partners sit at the table with very distant positions that are difficult to combine. Imagine that one of the parties wants for their goods 10 rubles, and the second is ready to offer five. Giant difference, but still there is a certain starting point for negotiations, and perhaps the parties agree on eight. But imagine that the "buyer" as a condition to stipulate that he underpaid, and money in the hotel room brought personally wife seller.
Well, that is, in theory it happens, for example, when the "buyer" gun seller and daughter hostage. And I would still somehow knew when to Putin showed this kind of ultimatum to the Ukrainian leadership, particularly a couple of weeks ago, when the APU frantically searched for batteries and diesel fuel to at least make the tanks. But the United States to submit such proposals, which already were not too high an opinion on the possibilities of the Russian Federation, and now, after consultation with its European partners and King Abdullah, and does have all the cards on hand - it is somehow stupid prohibitive. As climbs into any framework misunderstanding of what America by definition can not agree with any part of the annexation of the sovereign territory of Ukraine or the requirement to change its political system simply under pressure aggressor and without any justification in reality. Moreover, the position on this issue (that no harassment of Russian speakers in Ukraine is not, as the conditions for the federalization) repeatedly expressed both the US and all its allies. Yes, in fact, most of the UN General Assembly reaffirmed the international consensus on this issue.
And here the question arises: how could such a blatant bullshit thrust to the Americans, trying to prevent the tightening of international sanctions? Lavrov had hoped, stating positions that can only be successful on the Russian propagandon-TV, and Western people are embarrassing confusion - as a public picking your nose on a diplomatic dinner? Can generally considered adequate state leaders who are beginning to truly believe in the lie that quite recently they themselves had invented?
(Hide)
However, the main issue is, however, that Putin will do next. Bluffing "recognize the annexation, and not the occupation of the whole Ukraine," obviously did not work. Sanctions beat all patients, and prospects, keeping in mind the very probable decrease in oil prices and the decline in consumption of Russian gas, more and more sad. And the role of global pariah Putin was not to their liking - he did not expect such a humiliation. But the problem is that the bald rat driven itself into a corner from which an acceptable way out until it is visible. This, combined with the questionable adequacy, considerably adds anxiety: would not have done what Hitler absolutely desperate.
I would not overestimate the determination of the West. Especially, with the President of the United States. Under normal circumstances, they often tend to compromise at the expense of the weaker (or more sane, prone to reason) hand - just not to get involved in the conflict. But recall that Kennedy also was a democrat and had a reputation as an extreme liberal. Meanwhile, the Cuban missile crisis took the position extremely tough - even in the face of the conflict from escalating into a nuclear.
Obama the situation in the country is no easier. His rating has fallen sharply since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis precisely because, in the opinion of voters, indecisive and too soft, the president's position. He can no longer give in - it's too costly to his party, and the parliament will not allow. I'm pretty convinced that publicly declared by non-interference in the Ukrainian military conflict is "validity" exactly to the date on which (Allah forbid) Putin-SS to mainland Ukraine. Next in Husseynycha selection will remain (and bay is surely a privately explained).
So Putin will have to look for more creative solutions than violent federalization of Ukraine and the second state language. And under what sauce it will sell its retreat patriotic zombie community in Russia have to think for yourself.
Carl Voloh
I've already said that Chancellor Merkel's assessment of Putin's "detachment from reality" should not be interpreted literally, because, along with the long-playing foreign policy problems, GDP, has carried out the world denounced the annexation of the Crimea, received the support of domestic growth and popularity, which is simply not something to compare. That is not so simple.
But now we have received confirmation of the return. Proposals that Russia has asked Americans do not even make public, not intended for Russian domestic consumption, that is, for the zombie aggressive chauvinist propaganda of the population. Moreover, according to the urgency with which Putin was in a hurry to bring to their so-called Obama's proposals for the settlement, he begins to realize the far-reaching consequences of their expansionist and imperial policy. As well as it is close in the red line stands today the future of his country. So, would represent and the recipient of his message and his system of values.
But in the end, after a late Putin panic call to Riyadh at the emergency meeting in Paris organized by the Russians still have submitted (in writing :)) totally unacceptable, offensive and detached from real life offers that could not even be the basis for any meaningful negotiations.
I hope everyone understands what I mean. Sometimes partners sit at the table with very distant positions that are difficult to combine. Imagine that one of the parties wants for their goods 10 rubles, and the second is ready to offer five. Giant difference, but still there is a certain starting point for negotiations, and perhaps the parties agree on eight. But imagine that the "buyer" as a condition to stipulate that he underpaid, and money in the hotel room brought personally wife seller.
Well, that is, in theory it happens, for example, when the "buyer" gun seller and daughter hostage. And I would still somehow knew when to Putin showed this kind of ultimatum to the Ukrainian leadership, particularly a couple of weeks ago, when the APU frantically searched for batteries and diesel fuel to at least make the tanks. But the United States to submit such proposals, which already were not too high an opinion on the possibilities of the Russian Federation, and now, after consultation with its European partners and King Abdullah, and does have all the cards on hand - it is somehow stupid prohibitive. As climbs into any framework misunderstanding of what America by definition can not agree with any part of the annexation of the sovereign territory of Ukraine or the requirement to change its political system simply under pressure aggressor and without any justification in reality. Moreover, the position on this issue (that no harassment of Russian speakers in Ukraine is not, as the conditions for the federalization) repeatedly expressed both the US and all its allies. Yes, in fact, most of the UN General Assembly reaffirmed the international consensus on this issue.
And here the question arises: how could such a blatant bullshit thrust to the Americans, trying to prevent the tightening of international sanctions? Lavrov had hoped, stating positions that can only be successful on the Russian propagandon-TV, and Western people are embarrassing confusion - as a public picking your nose on a diplomatic dinner? Can generally considered adequate state leaders who are beginning to truly believe in the lie that quite recently they themselves had invented?
(Hide)
However, the main issue is, however, that Putin will do next. Bluffing "recognize the annexation, and not the occupation of the whole Ukraine," obviously did not work. Sanctions beat all patients, and prospects, keeping in mind the very probable decrease in oil prices and the decline in consumption of Russian gas, more and more sad. And the role of global pariah Putin was not to their liking - he did not expect such a humiliation. But the problem is that the bald rat driven itself into a corner from which an acceptable way out until it is visible. This, combined with the questionable adequacy, considerably adds anxiety: would not have done what Hitler absolutely desperate.
I would not overestimate the determination of the West. Especially, with the President of the United States. Under normal circumstances, they often tend to compromise at the expense of the weaker (or more sane, prone to reason) hand - just not to get involved in the conflict. But recall that Kennedy also was a democrat and had a reputation as an extreme liberal. Meanwhile, the Cuban missile crisis took the position extremely tough - even in the face of the conflict from escalating into a nuclear.
Obama the situation in the country is no easier. His rating has fallen sharply since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis precisely because, in the opinion of voters, indecisive and too soft, the president's position. He can no longer give in - it's too costly to his party, and the parliament will not allow. I'm pretty convinced that publicly declared by non-interference in the Ukrainian military conflict is "validity" exactly to the date on which (Allah forbid) Putin-SS to mainland Ukraine. Next in Husseynycha selection will remain (and bay is surely a privately explained).
So Putin will have to look for more creative solutions than violent federalization of Ukraine and the second state language. And under what sauce it will sell its retreat patriotic zombie community in Russia have to think for yourself.
Carl Voloh
