Future. Darwin Awards we do not need

Still around is changing rapidly. The world is rapidly rebuilt and decide how to respond to changing realities associated with the victory of the uprising in Ukraine and the Russian military incursion into the Crimea. And of course hard to build any long-term forecasts, and understand the essence of what is happening, too, it is not easy, because of the proximity Gumilev aberrations (at least the first time I met this term at ENU).

A few of these things are obvious:
1. Ukraine away from Russia forever, burying the eternal itch in the ass at the Russian rulers called "Russian World", "Russian project" and "panslavyanizm." Even unrealistic, but the possibility of occupation has not change this fait accompli. Is that a little stretch of time the process. From the Slavs, who still ready to co-exist with the Russian in their illusory "Russian world", still remain in Belarus. And I'm afraid that this is also a matter of time. All other Slavs, or the EU, or candidate members of the EU.

2. This "itchy ass" rulers of Russia, unfortunately, Framed Russia and Russians. Crimea to Russia turned out to be a trap. Now a few of the top five countries (the US, EU and UK) will obviously be disassembled Russia. It is unlikely that active hostilities, because "high risk", and there is a whole arsenal of other weapons. And it is unlikely this operation will "pryamschas." It will take some time. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Reagan announced the war, calling the Soviet Union an "evil empire" in 1983, I think. It took 8 years, and the Soviet Union, the state is immeasurably more powerful than the present Russian Federation, ceased to exist.
A deal will be primarily because of the unpredictability in international politics - this is the most terrible sin. Especially unpredictable nuclear arsenal, while not being in the top three of the first countries in the world. Putin may not want this action looked like a challenge to the strongest powers of the world (it may well be that there were "certain agreement", which confused the maidan), but it was to crank out so clumsily that the whole world knew it as a challenge. And this kind of "presenting" the first not to respond can not be, otherwise they will not be the first.
3. In the near future, the Russian Federation is waiting for the "iron curtain", light version. Just because of the self-preservation of the king and his entourage. That involves improving the blunt weapons of Russian propaganda. Not exactly dull. Still, internal promotion is successful enough, about its lack of Russians reflektsii, and social primitiveness of Russian society. Western society is arranged much more difficult, so there is much propaganda sleeker and more sophisticated, the Russian 'scrap' is not working. But Russian boobies in the Internet will be oh how much. Unless of course the Russian Federation will not be able to shut in his some "Rusnet 'or' Pravoslav-HETE" as it could do in the DPRK. In short, Pelevin Russian Federation turns into Sorokin of Russia.

4. What will happen to Ukraine - do not know. We're still at the point of bifurcation. It may be all right, maybe it's bad, but can be "no." Much depends on us. But if we have a third option proebёm, we have received over the last 30 years, Ukraine can be safely prescribe Darwin Award.

Source npubop.livejournal.com/