Oil Rossiya.Chto expect in the near future

Not all the figures given by the author, to be taken literally. Exaggerating certain points it is also done for a relief of painting. The rest - the readers to judge.

As has already been determined, the colony - there are countries involved in unequal economic exchange with the mother country. The main features of the following:
 - If a country exports to the metropolis more than it receives in return - a colony.
 - The system of foreign economic relations is imposed. The very tools of coercion is quite wide: from direct military attack to "peaceful" means financial and political terror.
 - Colonia, even formally being a monopolist supplies to foreign markets of a product does not control the market itself and, consequently, the price of the product.
 - At the head of every colony it is always the colonial export-oriented elite, indirectly controlled by the metropolis. The colony does not have political sovereignty.

As you can see, the Russian Federation - the absolute colony in the modern sense of the word. Well, of course, there is such a frostbitten zaputensky propagandon Kohl Starikov (nstarikov), who never regained consciousness, carries nonsense in that spirit that the Great Puten controls the world oil prices, milking the West, and with the money of the West successfully raise Russia from its knees world behind the scenes out of spite. For evidence, he climbs into his pocket, saying, look, when in power in Russia in 1998 were liberasty-young reformers, oil prices dropped to $ 9 per barrel. He came to power Puten - they began to grow rapidly, reaching a peak in 2008 at $ 140. However, when Putena replaced Bear, they slipped to 100 dollars per barrel, but, thank God, was then prime minister, again, great Puten which did not allow treacherous Mr. dropping prices to "fair" they think $ 20. The secret to the success of this moron is very simple - it is the most incredible any bears her with such fanaticism that stupid hamster in it begins to fervently believe. But we are in the context of today's topic old man's rut ​​is in no way interesting.

Many readers are categorically unwilling to understand that such an unequal exchange, and how it differs from the equivalent. Let me explain this simple example. There are two countries - and Bartofaniya Bananostan. Between them there is an active trade: the first country supplies Bananostan potatoes for 100 million dollars, and that it is shipping bananas to the same 100 million. Whether such an exchange of equal value? It all depends on how the fair price. If potatoes are a dollar per hundredweight, and bananas for a dollar per kilogram, in what place there is hidden justice? At these prices, even if Kartofaniya will export potatoes to 100 million, and the import of bananas for 200 Lyamov, anyway it will be plundered. A fair exchange - this is when you get in return for their supplies on caloric equivalent volume of products. This is certainly a simplified scheme, but the principle is, I hope, is clear?

If you talk about industrial goods, the equivalent of a fair exchange can be, for example, the number of used physical resources + volume of conventional energy + man-hours of work that went into its production. And that in fact "market prices" - a tricky thing. It's not the invisible hand of the market sets, and participants. For example, Vova Puten so kind uncle that the Chinese oil sells today for $ 60 a barrel. And who would dare to say that this is a non-market price? The seller and the buyer so decide, then the market. If necessary, Kohl Starikov right now justify the greatness and wisdom of the only true Putena oil policy.

So we have to state that surplus trade balance is expressed in monetary terms, it is not in itself an indicator of the extent of its colonial dependence. To feel the depth of colonial degradation of Raska, we must consider the nature of its exports and imports. To do this, you must enter into our equation indicators such as value-added products. For example, if a country is passed a certain product for a million dollars, where 50% - the share of value added, but instead acquires resource Papua women feedstock for the same million, but with the added value of 10%, in fact it turns out that the Papuans such an exchange is not advantageous, it expressed in numerical disparity ratio of 5/1.

Conclusion: equal exchange - when a certain amount of materialized labor is changed to equal the amount of labor. Not that I'm a priori think all readers morons who do not know what the added value of not able to figure it out, but only because the generation of the exam has lost the habit of mental stress, I'll talk to very basic level, calculated on the average rossiyanskih graduate high school. People are smart as you read my mind can complicate the circuit to a high degree of abstraction. I only show the essence.

Thus, we assume that the value of all goods destined for the foreign exchange generated by the formula X + Y, where X - the value of natural resources spent in its production, and Y - the cost of labor (roughly speaking, the salary paid to the employee). We assume that in this scheme up to the limit primitivized Y - this is the value added. The benefits of foreign trade exchange is determined not bare figures sold / purchased, namely in what the balance of the value added in this exchange. You should not rely on this indicator casuistical as profitability, even though profitability desperately drochat liberasty - she have something like the main fetish.

For example, if the cost of production and transportation of crude oil per barrel and $ 30 selling price of its $ 100, it turns out that gesheft Seller is 70%. Is it advantageous to change the oil cost $ 10 thousand. In the car of the same price that the manufacturer sells at a premium of 5% of the cost? From the position is welded to the export-import operations grabbers is spectacularly profitable, but from the standpoint of society as an economic entity, it is a crime. Why? Because for the production of 100 barrels of oil involved, let's say, 5 people, the cost of the actual volume of work in production and transportation of oil by $ 10 thousand. Insignificant, say, 5%, the rest - the deadweight costs of energy and other natural resources. But the need for the production of car for 40 people, and share their work in the final product up to 90%. Thus, although exports of vehicles does not give excessive profits to the owner of production (capitalist), he feeds the 40 workers, that is, car exports from society as a whole gets a lot more than on the export of resources.

After all, if the country exported 100 million of oil and imported the same amount of consumer goods, who will buy it, if the money is only for oil? In this case, and imports in such quantities is not needed. Now I understand why the flight of capital from Russia is not stopped any presidential decrees, and even complete eradication of corruption and the creation of hothouse business climate will not turn back the financial river? Here is the fundamental reason for the surplus of foreign trade. Here is the clue terrible secret: why "rich" oil countries are almost entirely undeveloped colonies. Because in terms of profitability to grow unprofitable. What the capitalist will invest in Automobile, if it will pay for itself after 20 years of commercials, and will bring in the best 5% of the profit when enough to drill a well and get gesheft 70% in a few months?

Formulate another postulate profitable export products a high degree of redistribution. I explain, as usual, on the fingers, what it is: iron ore - is the product of the first redistribution. The cost per tonne of ore mined 99% - energy and resource consumption, and 1% - the share of miners. Ore in order to increase the iron content in it - this is the second repartition. Ore is enriched at the GOK, by dropping out of waste material in order to reduce the costs of transportation and disposal of slag at a metallurgical plant in steelmaking. The second raises the redistribution of the share of labor cost up to 3%. On metllurgicheskom plant comes third repartition - of alluvial rock melted semi-finished product - after the removal of slag from the iron in the form to receive ferroosplav caked lumps of iron. Semi-finished product is sent to the mill, where the fourth redistribution already obtained steel ingots. These pigs by the finer manufacturing operations in the fifth repartition are converted into high-quality steel billets relevant dimensions and compositions. Sixth repartition - steel discs machined parts. Seventh repartition - assembly of finished parts of the tractor.

So, in the cost of the tractor, the share of human labor is increasing, for example, up to 80%, with each subsequent redistribution requires more skilled labor and the expansion of the number involved in the production chain specialists. After all, over the tractor work not only for workers, Tochal detail, but also designers, technologists, programmers, and system administrators who service computers, which employ engineers. To prepare engineers, programmers and system administrators, university professors are needed and school teachers.

That is why the export of high value added products is more profitable for the economy - it stimulates it to all levels of the production chain and related industries, creating thousands of jobs and, therefore, provides a livelihood thousands. Now imagine what would happen if the country will not produce the tractor and begins to blunt unsupplemented sell iron ore. I do not argue that the business itself can be a cost-effective and beneficial to those involved in it, but for society as a whole scheme of "raw materials in exchange for beads" - the fastest way to degradation. Any kind of Dolby-commies or debilo-natsionalyugi easily explain cattle, which is enough to eliminate the bourgeois version commies, or Jews, parasites canon Natsik (as an option - to stop feeding the Caucasus), "fair" to redistribute income from exports, and all at once there will come a magical Happiness. I hope the example above scheme even able to understand the victim's exam handicap of poor slogans.

I repeat what I said a hundred times: it does not matter, capitalism or socialism will be in Russia, will be a democracy or a dictatorship, the Jamahiriya, or caliphate, important economic paradigm - either in its basis is profitability, as is the case with today's colonial Putinomics or - meeting the needs of society by the society itself. If placed at the center of the profitability, the Raska, in principle, is not able to overcome their colonial resource status.

Incidentally, in this regard, curious to see the problem of corruption. Win in the current Russian corruption is impossible in principle, because corruption - an organic part of the economic system. See what's happening: oil is sold abroad and about 80% of revenues from hydrocarbon exports is taken by the state in the form of taxes to the treasury. In fact it is the state apparatus - the main vygodopreobretatel on exports, and not the oligarchs. They only performers with their protsentik, but the lion's share of the rent goes to managers of the budget. Yes, richer oligarchs officials, but the oligarchs - a few hundred, but officials - millions, and it should be taken into account. At the disposal of the state apparatus receives hundreds of billions of dollars that officials from the known master-raspilingovo otkatingovo-offshoringovym schemes. And as long as sverhrentabelnye oil export revenues will be at the disposal of officials, corruption is ineradicable in principle, no matter what he sang his clown oval roundnose flock.

Conversely, if the economy is tuned for the production of high value added products and not on the export of raw materials, the official shall lose its role as manager of the multibillion-dollar rental income. Above, I described a chain of seven stages, resulting in iron-containing rock is converted into a tractor. Try pofantazirovt, as in this production chain can profit thieves elite? It is essentially impossible, because all the transformation of raw materials into the final product take place without the participation of officials, bureaucracy is no longer a subject of the economy, it remains a purely administrative function. Ideally, and export of raw materials becomes not necessary, because it makes no sense to export crude oil and to buy a tractor if the tractor, as well as everything else we do ourselves.

In the case of products of high yield, even if they turn out more expensive than their foreign counterparts, the import will be beneficial ... do not fall off the chair, but it will be profitable even if the trade at prices below cost. I explain again on his fingers: a complete self-sufficiency of the country is impossible, if only because that stupid population is not enough to produce a whole range of essential consumer goods. Again, bananas and Siberia can grow if in greenhouses, but a kilo of bananas will cost under 30 dollars per kilo, with the lion's share of the cost of the final product takes the resource and energy component. And the cost of bananas in Ecuador - $ 0, 1 kg. In this case, producing a tractor cost $ 10 thousand. When the market price of $ 9 thousand. We can well afford to sell it Ecuadorians even $ 8 thousand., As the share of labor in its production costs of 80%, and the money to buy bananas for $ 1 per kilo, to sell them domestically at $ 10, but by margins of 90% to compensate for losses that arise in the sale of tractors by 20% below cost. It is a hundred times already explained Milov, Parshev, Mukhin, et al., And I have often depict this scheme.

Such an exchange is not hard to notice at first, beneficial to both parties - both Russia and Ecuador as goods with high labor invested both parties exchange transactions for products with approximately the same share of labor input. That is, in fact, there is an exchange of equal amounts of labor. Secondly, from the settlement of foreign trade can safely exclude foreign currency and then the imbalance in foreign trade here in principle does not occur. But for this, I repeat, it is necessary to change the paradigm of the economy.

What product has the greatest value added? Of course, a product of the intellectual. For example, to create a computer program requires a negligible amount of resources - desk, computer and electric power consumption of a computer, and the rest - the work of the programmer, but the program itself can be worth a million. Moreover, replicating the program in contrast to the replication of the same tractor at all costs at virtually no cost - even a billion copies sell, costs are incurred only for the transmission of user code on the Internet, the physical media has become maloaktualny. The economy, based on creating intellectual product, whether it be the creation of computer operating systems and architectural design, the most profitable, but, of course, no country has a monopoly in this area because of the enormous competition. Although the country's metropolitan furiously trying to impose Colon exchange scheme «Windows in exchange for oil».

For example, one of the major export sectors of the United States - the film industry. Do not be fooled by crafty criteria for "profitability" when a blockbuster budget of $ 10 billion. Delivers charges just $ 10, 5 billion (5% margin). What are the physical resources required to create box office hits? Film and little electricity. Today, even splurge on expensive decorations do not need any ambiance is created on your computer. Therefore, 99% of the budget of the film - is the cost of its advertising fees of stars, writers, directors, fees geniuses of computer special effects, and other specialists, that is the lion's share of expenses - a wage filmmakers. Now let's imagine that the investor invested in the film project $ 10 billion. And the world rolled brought him only $ 9 billion. Yes, this particular investor has suffered a loss, but American society as a whole received a "pure" income of $ 8, 9 billion in the resource and energy costs in the $ 100 million. Properly Understand the spoken here, and you will understand why Russia is profitable to produce for domestic consumption that seems to be cheaper to buy from the Chinese.

For those who are not accustomed to think too abstract categories, draw a picture: Peter made a ton of cucumbers, Bob - a ton of potatoes, and Fyodor got a ton of oil that has been consumed for the production of agricultural products and private consumption. After Bob and Peter gave a third of its crop to one another, and a third - Fede. As a result, everyone has cucumbers and potatoes.

Another option: Fyodor sold for dollars three tons of oil, and bought 5 tons of cheap Chinese cucumbers and 5 tons of cheap Egyptian potatoes.


See also

New and interesting