Neprognoz


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My long-deceased grandmother saying "It takes bіlsh Chitat, if tіkati dwellers nobility." She was a member of the CPSU (b) 18 years and twice met with Lenin (once at a volunteer!), But the thirties whole family survived intact - every three years, moved from place to place.

And I long ago decided to work on the exchange. In the Russian stock exchange, I tried to predict the future - and lost a lot of money. But around the same time on another presentation Jobs introduced the Apple iPhone. I looked at it as interfeysnik said "yeah, very interesting" and went to open the account on Nasdaq. Earned +150%, and if not covered by (urgently need money) would have earned + 440%

Since then I know for sure - a loss to predict the future, but the closely watched very profitable now. For example, because it becomes clear many important things - that can not win even a united front of Putin Mizulina, Gundyaeva and Chikatilo - because with the progress you can fight, you can even stop - but it can not win.

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In this post - to collect a certain number of observations that are of interest to all living (yet) in Russia. Some of these observations may be flawed, but their general direction shows quite a few strong trends.

It turned out that almost none of my friends about these things does not know, he does not follow and is not interested - but as you know, ignorance of the laws of physics are not exempt from their implementation. So I decided to take up political education due to the modest forces. The text drawn up without reference to the source, not to litter. A little later, as the arms reach, I will make a series of notes with links to sources, revealing in detail some topics.

And, probably, it is important to add that I am not a fan of the Putin / milonovsko / gundyaevskogo obscurantism, but as a citizen of a foreign country do not feel them nothing but curiosity entomologist. Therefore, I look a little bit from the side and with humor.

Enjoy!

I'll start with interesting antiquities.

In the mid-16th century Spain start to import huge amounts of silver from deposits in Latin America. Suddenly it became clear that we should not work, do not raise the grain, stitch boots - because everything can be bought. In the 17th century there was a saying, "In Spain, everything is expensive, in addition to silver».

Trading silver has been the monopoly of the crown and the basic personal income settled in the royal treasury - and spend a major military campaign and inhuman luxury courtyard. Doing business became unprofitable - and why? Activities of the people it was easier to go to the security forces and cling to the Royal Silver Rain. And, of course, with the constant inflow of money into the country, inflation beat all records, and manual labor has lost all respect.

In parallel, the reigning Habsburgs against the background of silver poisoning brain occurred imagination about how to be arranged in Spain and Europe entirely - the struggle with the Reformation, the expansion of the Habsburgs throughout Europe, discrimination and the subsequent expulsion of the main Spanish merchants and artisans (Jews and Moriscos ) appeared lyutuyuschaya Inquisition, imposed censorship, travel ban students from the country and a ban on the importation of books.

At the same time, in countries traded and fought with Spain (England, France, the Netherlands) there was a economic and social revolution - in some moments of Spain was ready a lot of buying and greatly increased production at other Spain fought simply to deter Spanish military power, with limited resources (which is sold - and then earned), had very twisted.

In general, in Spain the incentives for the development of human capital lost, but in the rest of Europe have increased many times.

In Spain, the imperial model was developed, based on military force, and in northern Europe - was built on the right and the economy. Catholic Spain gave money A̶l̶l̶a̶h̶ Christ, and this was the result of a miracle, and in Protestant England (and even Northern Europe) was the highest valor of their honestly earned.

What happened next is well seen in an animated map
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By the early 19th century, the Spanish Empire had lost almost all their possessions and British almost to the middle of the 20th continued growth.

Of course, we are interested in what will happen with the other empire, marked on the map in purple - Russian.

To understand this well to begin to know (or to repeat to those who already know) a few important things.
- 50% of Russian budget revenues - it proceeds from the sale of oil and gas.

- In the ranking of business environment, Russia is just behind Barbados on 92 place (Georgia, for example, 8), spending on science in relation to GDP in the 32 place (1, 16%, close to Hungary and Tunisia) and the military budget at the same time on 3rd place in the world (20% more than in the UK).

- Officials in Russia - 6 million people. Their average salary is 60 tr (national average - 33 TR) about the effectiveness of these officials and the extent of the cut is not necessary to speak - you can only laugh: the budget 2014-2016 22% of the cost of utilities classified

- In general it is not surprising that the graduates of Russian universities most want to work in the civil service (or in Gazprom, which is the same), and least of all vendors want to work (where your earnings depends primarily on you). That has grown a generation that believes that you can not work, and all will A̶l̶l̶a̶h̶ oil. And raised a huge army of people who are accustomed to getting money for prosizhivanie in goskabinetah pants. Unfortunately, history shows that to explain to them that now all have to work hard to start will be very difficult.

- As a result of the inefficiency of the economy of scale achieved, according to the Russian Minister of Economic Development Ulyukayev is stagnant (at that time, the US economy is gradually recovering and Europe).

- Budget 2014-16 made assuming the minimum price of oil $ 93 (currently $ 111) - and if the price falls, you have to climb to the Stabilization Fund (NWF, reserve, foreign exchange reserves) - and even if they do not soon cut (it is difficult to suggest - www.forbes.ru/mneniya-column/vertik...ckoro-budet-nec ), Then enough of their year and a half or two

In general, if brief - if the world price of oil will fall in Russia will begin a cheerful carnival. (And this time it will be organized not Kapkov.)

It is important to understand that Russia is the only way to impact on the price of oil - to pray (now we know the real reason for the rise of the Russian Orthodox Church!). Therefore, in order to understand what will happen to the price of oil (and hence with Russia), it is necessary to see what happens in the meantime the world.

And the world is what is happening:

Elon Musk (the man who made PayPal and launched a private spacecraft) opened the company to produce electric Tesla. For three years they produced expensive supercars (200 km / h, acceleration to 100 km / h in 4.2s) and debug technology. Supercars quite successful - they are all great. With all public benefits, electric cars cost 100 thousand dollars for the total cost of ownership comparable to, sorry, Toyota Corolla.

At the Detroit Auto Show in February, Tesla promises to submit budget model E (estimated price of 40 thousand). 40 thousand - it means very cheap (for the total cost of ownership), very reliable and very fast car.

By the end of 2015 the whole of America (98% of the population), southern Canada and most of Europe will be covered with a network of petrol stations, in which the car can be recharged in 20 minutes for free or for 2 minutes for the money. Mask Just another business - this is solar panels (described later) and most of the gas stations and they work.

At the same time, Google has finally debugged your unmanned vehicle autonomously he drove without accident for more than a million kilometers. The three states will Google permission to use robomobilya on public roads - including in California.

In the autumn of Google has invested $ 250 million in the Uber (analogue and GetTaxi Yandeks.Taksi) and a part of this agreement is that it will launch the 2500 Uber automated unmanned taxi (probably in San Francisco and Los Angeles). In general, the future has come - calls on the iPhone taxi it arrives, you say where to go, taxi rides on the lanes to public transport, unload and catches the next passenger, and at night she goes out of town to the parking lot - charging, read triumphant in the press and devour the Christian babies.

Of course, the rednecks in Texas and will continue to drive their Truckee (let's not forget, they are horses still ride), but the robotic cars can cover all urban agglomerations - and for some years to own a car in the city will be unprofitable - fee parking has not been canceled. It is important to understand that, Google does not require a special car - it is mounted on the serial model and can at any time take control of the driver - that is for the technology provided an easy entry into the market and under it is not required to convert the entire road network. The laser scanner is required for this system is that the roads (70 000) - but in mass production the price will drop to 10 thousand.

Google predicts that the introduction of this system will reduce by 90%: the number of cars in cities, the amount of energy, time, the driver behind the wheel and the number of accidents. About 90% of likely lie - but even change these parameters by 50% perepashet entire automotive market.

In response, Tesla promised 3 years to roll out its unmanned systems and launched the construction of a robotic plant producing batteries for electric vehicles - with a production capacity comparable to the entire industry producing Li-Ion IN THE WORLD. If the mask (people build and launch a spacecraft) is not lying, it will produce 800 thousand fast, beautiful and cheap to operate electric vehicles a year.

At the same time there are rumors that Tesla (which is currently 18 billion) has his eye GeneralMotors (55 billion), after the crisis, bankruptcy and nationalization of 2008, recovered and returned to first place in the production of cars in the United States and the world.

Conversion assembly line for the production of electric cars takes about 20 months (Tesla for this term has converted conveyor Toyota). What will happen if GM really easy to buy a Tesla present. What happens if they do not buy GM also easily - then it will buy Toyota or Daimler, who already own shares. And if the mask will be nimble weasel, and keep control over themselves, everything just happened a year and a half later, and he will be even richer than (what I told him and I wish)

In addition, the family Elon Musk has another business - the company Solar City. If you have a home in the United States in a suitable climatic area, you call them and get in line. They come in a couple of months (all already long) and free mounted on the roof solar panels. Solar panels are handed a ten-year lease (hire-purchase). As a result, the landlord does not do anything other than a phone call - but begins to pay for the batteries is less than he paid for electricity, completely covers its needs for electricity is also giving it to the network (and, if desired, make on her forehead tattooed GreenPeace)

Evil tongues say that the business profits at the expense of subsidies from the state. But the development of solar cells also did not stand still - and by the time their efficiency will grow even more and reduce the cost of production, it has been SolarCity is a huge market and customer base.

Why is all this important.
America - the main oil consumer in the world (20% of global consumption). Half of the oil consumed in the US is processed into gasoline.
That is, only American cars consume 10% of all of the world's oil.

Efficiency of 25-30% of the gasoline engine, diesel - up to 50%, electrical - greater than 90%. Well, it is equally important that the electric power are excellent nuclear and hydroelectric power plants.

You say, "Well, that - under the threat of a 10% market share. And there is still billions in China and India and motorization will feed the oil market for a long time! ».
At this point, it is worth remembering two stories.
1) When India was ripe to telecommunications, suddenly it became clear that the world wired telephony dies - India scratched the crown and covered the entire country once wireless networks.
2) The theme of Lebedev in a recent report from a trip to China, wrote that the Chinese road is now completely silent. Just because all move on elektroskuter. This happened a few years.

What's to stop China, which
a) there is almost no oil and gas,
b) has the largest deposits of lithium and graphite (necessary for li-ion batteries) and existing plants and expertise for the production of batteries
c) the world's largest hydroelectric power
d) the ruling elite that the past 10 years consistently say about the dangers of dependence on energy imports
d) have a successful business, able to hold back engineering and set up production
In general, what is to prevent China skip petrol cars and go directly to the electrical personally, I do not know. (It is the same with India, of course)

Also very interesting is happening in the gas market. Everyone has heard about the shale gas, but few people understand what it means. In fact it is just a new technology that allows to extract gas from the fields, of which previously did get was impossible - before the gas is able to pump out only from the underground "tank", as new technology allows to extract gas from the fields where it is mixed with the rock.
To this end, a number of small holes are drilled, pumped to the water with chemicals and tear subterranean formation pressure - gas is collected and comes to the surface (this is a very primitive description, of course). There are people who believe that it is not very environmentally friendly technology - say, spoil the whole water world. But so far no harm from the extraction of shale failed to prove.

We can not say that shale - a cheap technology. But we can say that the technology of shale gas will do two things: 1) limited the upper level of gas prices 2) opened up the possibility of gas production in the regions where it was thought before, it was not.
Well, the technology is, of course, cheaper with experience.

For example, it is believed that the rich deposits of shale has Poland (and Ukraine - and its development will provide most of the needs of Europe's gas. The Poles can not begin to extract it - because of bureaucratic chaos, greed and corruption (hello, brothers-Slavs! ). But as we have seen, European bureaucrats when needed successfully sboroli Spain and Greece - must be able to sborot and Poland. Because when you have someone to buy gas, not less important, than the price is as dealer p̶s̶i̶h̶ ready to guarantee stability and reasonable prices .

And of course, the flagship production of shale - is America. Just because there are no licenses for the extraction of minerals. I bought a piece of land, and even dig to the core.
As a result, gas prices in America collapsed because of oversupply and gas companies to urgently re-equipped gas terminals (designed for the import and regasification) - a gas exports. (In China, Japan and South Korea is now the gas is 3-5 times more expensive than in the US).
That is, the production of electricity in America is now much cheaper (to the final consumer in Massachusetts electricity is currently cheaper than in Moscow).

Gas directly as important for Russian budget revenues than oil (why is another story), but indirectly the cheapest gas pressure on oil prices down, as in many applications interchangeable gas and oil.

There is another important trend - moving production from China to the United States and other countries of the first world. From simple examples - starting Mask giant battery production, about which I wrote above, and the transfer of production of Apple MacPro back to America. Also of interest is the production of iPhones translation Foxconn (the world's largest electronics) from China to Taiwan.
Combine all of these examples one - instead of cheap Chinese workers in these industries will work very cheap and much more effective robots (Foxconn's factory will be half a million robots). In general, this trend is called robotics manufacturing.

And last, but not least
List of the top 15 oil exporters sorted shipments:
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, UAE, Norway, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, Canada, the Netherlands, Venezuela, Angola, Algeria, Libya

Discard
- Norway: oil supplies to the European market and has a population of 5 million, and for such a huge population stash.
- Netherlands: re-exporter, its oil they do not have a small population.
- Canada: Americans and supplies has a diversified economy.

The remaining 12 countries. I do not know who in the world is now profitable, so they have a lot of money.
For example, Iran's ayatollahs crazy
In Venezuela, where one crazy socialist shifted to another lowering prices in the supermarket using submachine











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