Neprognoz. As technological progress bury Putin's Russia




I know for sure: at a loss to predict the future, but carefully observe the present extremely profitable. Because it becomes clear many important things that can not win even a united front to Putin, Mizulina, Gundyaeva and Chikatilo - because with progress can fight, you can even stop. But it can not be beat.

My long deceased grandmother said "demands bіlsh Chitat, if tіkati dwellers nobility." She was a member of the CPSU (b) since '18 and twice met with Lenin (once at a volunteer!), But the entire family survived the thirties intact - every three years, moved from place to place.

And many years ago I decided to work on the exchange. On the Russian stock exchange, I tried to predict the future - and lost a lot of money. But around the same time for the next presentation Jobs introduced the Apple iPhone. I looked at it as interfeysnik said "yeah, very interesting" and went to open an account on Nasdaq. Earned + 150%, and if it had not closed the account (urgently need money) would earn + 440%

Since then, I do know - at a loss to predict the future, but carefully observe the present extremely profitable. For example, because it becomes clear many important things - who can not win even a united front to Putin, Mizulina, Gundyaeva and Chikatilo - because with the progress you can fight, you can even stop - but it can not be beat.

In this post - to collect a certain number of observations of interest to all living (yet) in Russia. Some of these observations may be flawed, but their general direction shows quite a few strong trends.

It turned out that almost none of my friends about these things do not know, nor should not interested - but as you know, ignorance of the laws of physics are not exempt from their implementation. So I decided to do political education because of the modest forces. Text compiled without reference to sources that do not pollute. A little later, as the hands reach, I will do a series of notes with links to sources, detail reveals some themes.

Well, perhaps, it is important to add that I am not a fan of the Putin / milonovsko / gundyaevskogo obscurantism, but as a citizen of a foreign country do not feel them nothing but curiosity entomologist. So I look a little bit from the side, and with humor.

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I'll start with interesting antiques.

In the mid-16th century Spain start to import huge amounts of silver deposits in Latin America. Suddenly it became clear that we should not work, do not raise the grain stitch boots - because everything can be bought. In the 17th century there was a saying, "In Spain, everything is expensive than silver».

Silver Trading was the monopoly of the crown and the main income settled in private royal treasury - and spend big on military campaigns and inhuman luxury courtyard. Doing business became unprofitable - but why? Activities of the people it was easier to go to the security forces and cling to the Royal Silver rain. And, of course, with the constant inflow of money into the country, inflation beat all records, and manual labor has lost all respect.

In parallel, the Habsburg kings on the background of silver poisoning of the brain occurred fantasies about how should be organized in Spain and Europe entirely - the struggle with the Reformation, the Habsburg expansion throughout Europe, discrimination and the subsequent expulsion of the main Spanish merchants and artisans (Jews and Moriscos ) appeared lyutuyuschaya Inquisition imposed censorship, banning students from leaving the country and the ban on the importation of books.

At the same time, in countries traded and fought with Spain (England, France, Netherlands) cases an economic and social revolution - in some moments of Spain was ready to buy a lot and greatly increased production in other moments and Spain fought simply to restrain Spanish military power, with limited resources (that have sold - and then earned), had a very strong spin.

In general, in Spain incentives for the development of human capital disappeared, and in the rest of Europe repeatedly reinforced.

In Spain, the imperial model was developed, based on military force, and in northern Europe - built on law and economics. Catholic Spain was giving money to the Christ and this was the result of a miracle, and in Protestant England (and Northern Europe in general), the highest valor was their honestly earned.

What happened next is well seen on the анимированной map

By the early 19th century, the Spanish Empire had already lost nearly all their possessions, and the British almost to the middle of the 20th continued growth.

Of course, we are interested in what will happen with the other empire, marked on the map in purple - Russian.

To understand this well know to start (or to repeat to those who already know) a few important things.

- 50% of budget revenues Russia - is the income from the sale of oil and gas.

- In the rating business conditions Russia stands just behind Barbados on 92 place (Georgia, for example, 8), spending on science in relation to GDP by 32 site (1, 16%, close to Hungary and Tunisia) and the military budget at the same place on 3 in the world (20% more than in the UK).

- Officials in Russia - 6 million people. Their average salary is 60 TR (The national average - 33 TR) About the effectiveness of these officials and extent of cutting talk is not necessary - you can only laugh: in the budget 2014-2016 22% of the costs for housing classified

- In general it is not surprising that graduates of Russian universities most want to work in the civil service (or in Gazprom, which is the same), and least of all sellers want to work (where your income depends primarily on you). That is, the increased generation that believes that you can not work, and will give all the oil. And raised a huge army of people who are used to getting paid for sitting out in goskabinetah pants. Unfortunately, history shows that explain to them that now all need to begin to work hard will be very difficult.

- Finally reached the scale inefficiency of the economy, according to the Russian Minister of Economic Development Ulyukaeva is stagnation (at the time, as the US economy is gradually recovering and Europe).

- Budget 2014-16 made assuming a minimum oil price $ 93 (now $ 111) - and if the price drops, you have to climb to the Stabilization Fund (NWF, reserve, gold reserves) - and even if they do not soon cut (which is not difficult assume - forbes.ru), then enough of their year and a half or two.

In general, if briefly - if the world price of oil will fall, Russia will begin merry carnival. (And this time, it will organize not Kapkov.)

It is important to understand that Russia is the only way to impact on the price of oil - pray (now we know the real reason for the rise of the ROC!). Therefore, in order to understand what will happen to the price of oil (and as a consequence - to Russia), it is necessary to see what happens in the meantime in the world.

A world that's what happens:

Elon Musk (the man who made PayPal and launched a private spaceship), opened the company to produce electric Tesla. Three years they produced expensive supercars (200 km / h, acceleration to 100 km / h in 4.2s) and debug technology. Supercars quite successful - they are all great. With all public benefits, electric cars cost 100 thousand dollars on the total cost of ownership comparable to, sorry, Toyota Corolla.

At the Detroit Motor Show in February, Tesla promises to present a budget model E (estimated price of 40 thousand). 40,000 - which means very cheap (at TCO), very reliable and very fast car.

By the end of 2015 all of America (98% of the population), southern Canada and much of Europe will be covered with a network of petrol stations, in which the car can be recharged in 20 minutes FREE or 2 minutes for the money. Just another business Mask - a solar battery (about it later) and most of the dressings on them and running.

At the same time, Google, finally debugged your unmanned car, he drove autonomously without accidents has more than a million kilometers. In three states Google issued a permit for the use robomobilya on public roads - including in California.

In the fall of Google has invested $ 250 million in Uber (analogue and GetTaxi Yandeks.Taksi) and part of this agreement is that it will launch the 2500 Uber automated unmanned taxi (probably in San Francisco and Los Angeles). In general, the future has come - calls on the iPhone taxi, it comes, you say where to go, taxi rides on the lanes to public transport, unload and catches the next passenger, and at night she goes to town on parking - charge, read success reports in the press and devour Christian infants.

Of course, the rednecks in Texas and will continue to ride on their Truckee (let's not forget they are horses still go), but the robotic vehicles able to cover all urban agglomerations - and for several years to own a car in the city will become unprofitable - fee parking has not been canceled. It is important to understand that Google will not require the creation of special vehicles - it is mounted on a standard or you can always pick up the driver's control - that is, the technology provided for easy entry into the market and under it is not required to convert the entire road network. Laser scanner required for this system yet expensive (70,000) - but in mass production, its price will fall to 10 thousand.

Google predicts that the introduction of this system will reduce by 90%: Number of cars in cities, the amount of energy, time, the driver behind the wheel and the number of accidents. About 90% sure they lie - but even these figures change to 50% perepashet entire car market.

In response Tesla promised after 3 years to roll out its unmanned systems and launched the construction of a robotic plant producing batteries for electric vehicles - with the volume of production comparable to all manufacturing production Li-Ion in the world. If the mask (people build and launch a spacecraft) is not lying, it will produce 800 thousand fast, beautiful and cheap to operate electric vehicles a year.

At the same time there are rumors that Tesla (which is worth 18 billion now) has his eye GeneralMotors (55 billion), after the crisis, bankruptcy and nationalization of 2008 to restore and returned to first place in the production of automobiles in the United States and the world.

Alterations to the production of electric conveyor takes about 20 months (Tesla for this term has converted conveyor Toyota). What happens if GM really buy Tesla, submit easily. What happens if they do not buy GM too easy - then it will buy Toyota or Daimler, who already own shares. And if the mask would be agile weasel and maintain control over themselves, everything just happens for a year and a half later, and he will be even richer (which I wish him and)

In addition, the family Elon Musk has another business - the company Solar City. If you have a house in the United States in the appropriate climate zone, you call them and get in line. They come in a couple of months (long queue already) and is mounted on a free rooftop solar panels. Solar panels are handed a ten-year lease (hire-purchase). As a result, the landlord does not do anything at all, except for phone calls - but begins to pay for batteries less than he paid for electricity, completely closes its electricity needs more and giving it to the network (and if you want a tattoo on his forehead makes GreenPeace).

Evil tongues say that the business profits by grants from the state. But the development of solar cells also do not stand still - and by the time they will grow even more efficiency and production, cheaper at SolarCity is already a huge market and customer base.

Why all this is important.

America - the main consumer of oil in the world (20% of total world consumption). Half of the oil consumed in the US is processed into gasoline.

That is, only American cars consume 10% of all of the world's oil.

Efficiency of 25-30% of the gasoline engine, diesel - up to 50%, electrical - greater than 90%. Well, it is equally important that the power supply for electric perfect nuclear and hydroelectric power plants.

You say, "Well, that - under the threat of a 10% market share. And there is still billions in China and India, and their long motorization will feed oil market! ».

At this point it is worth recalling two stories.

1) When India was ripe to telecommunications, suddenly became clear that the worldwide wired telephony dies - India crown scratched and covered the entire country at once wireless networks.

2) Subject Lebedev in a recent report from the trip to China, wrote that Chinese road is now completely silent. Just because all move on Powered Scooters. This happened a few years.

What's to stop China from whom

a) there is almost no oil and gas,

b) have the largest deposits of lithium and graphite (needed for li-ion batteries) and existing factories and expertise for the production of batteries,

a) the world's largest hydroelectric power,

g) governing elite whose last 10 years constantly argue about the dangers of dependence on energy imports,

d) have a successful business, able to hold back engineering and organize production,

In general, what is to prevent China skip petrol cars and go directly to the electric - personally, I do not know. (It is the same with India, of course)

Also very interesting is happening in the gas market. Everybody has heard about shale gas, but few understand what it means. In fact it is just a new technology that allows to extract gas from the fields, of which before was impossible to get anything - before gas is able to only download from the underground "tanks", as new technology allows to produce gas from the fields where it is mixed with the rock.

To do this, a few small holes are drilled, the water is pumped back to the chemicals and tearing pressure subterranean formation - gas is going and coming to the surface (this is a very primitive description, of course). There are people who believe that it is not very environmentally friendly technology - say, to spoil all the water in the world. But so far no harm from production of shale could not prove.

Can not say that shale - a cheaper technology. But we can say that the technology of shale gas do two things: 1) limit the upper level of gas prices, 2) has opened the possibility of gas production in regions where as previously thought, it was not.

Well, the technology is certainly cheaper with experience.

For example, it is believed that the rich deposits of oil shale has Poland (and Ukraine - and its development will provide a large part of Europe's gas needs. Poles can not possibly begin to produce it - because of the bureaucratic chaos, greed and corruption (hello, brothers-Slavs! ). But as we have seen, European bureaucrats, when needed, to successfully sboroli Spain and Greece - probably will sborot and Poland. Because when you have someone to buy gas, not less important than the price, is how the seller is willing p̶s̶i̶h̶ guarantee stability and reasonable prices.

And of course, the flagship production of shale - this is America. Just because there are no licenses for mining. Bought a piece of land and dig even to the core.

As a result, gas prices in the US have collapsed due to oversupply, and gas companies to urgently re-equipped gas terminals (calculated on the import and regasification) - a gas exports. (In China, Japan and South Korea gas now costs 3-5 times more expensive than in the US).

That is, the production of electricity in America is now significantly cheaper (final consumer electricity costs in Massachusetts are now cheaper than in Moscow).

Gas directly is less important for the Russian budget revenues than oil (why - another story), but indirectly cheapest gas pressure on oil prices down, as in many applications of gas and oil are interchangeable.

There is another important trend - moving production from China to America and other countries of the first world. A simple example - start Musk giant battery production, which I wrote above, and transfer production Apple MacPro back to America. Also of interest is the translation production iPhones Foxconn (the world's largest electronics manufacturer) from China to Taiwan.

Combine all these examples one - instead of cheap Chinese workers in these industries are very cheap and work much more efficient robots (the Foxconn factory will stand half a million robots). In general, this trend is called robotization of production.

And last, but not least

List of the top 15 oil exporters, sorted by volume of deliveries:

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, UAE, Norway, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, Canada, the Netherlands, Venezuela, Angola, Algeria, Libya

Discard

- Norway: oil supplies to the European market and has a population of 5 million, and for such a huge population stash.

- Netherlands: the re-exporter, its oil they do not, the population is small.



















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