aggravation of the situation around Syria and the statements of a number of Western countries about the preparedness of the military operation against it caused a flurry of voices that Russia is now "merges" and Syria. Some, however, expressed more caution in the sense that "if the merge, then ...." Then came the conclusions amusing one another. "Putin is an agent of the State Department," "Power sells everything and everyone" and so on in the same spirit. Especially all those heart-rending cries intensified after the web and the media published a statement Minister Lavrov that because of Syria's Russian war with anyone not going.
I am absolutely not going to anyone of anything to dissuade or persuade, the more I'm not going to present to your attention a semblance of loyalty of the text, which aims to convince Russia that the coolest, and everything is done the right thing in front of us waiting resounding victory. I'm not going, because, like the vast majority of my readers do not know what it thinks of this about our government, and that she is going to take in this situation, for what reasons and for what purposes.
I only suggest to make out with calm the situation, it is known to stress to us only by an open and incomplete sources, and to consider the real possibility that, based on our view of the world, our power available. We can not know whether the government will take advantage of these opportunities, there you have it better and more efficiently, or at all, it is not going to do anything. But such a debriefing, at least allow us to get rid of unnecessary illusions and recognize the real threats that confront today's Russia.
Moreover, we will make the most detached from the government itself, as in its actions today on any subject you can see so many different contradictions that how adept it, and any opponent would find easily a thousand serious arguments in support of its position. We will look only at the global situation and Russia in it looking out of our "trench».
So there you go:
1. Why do Syria, there took destroyers?
On the subject of Syria, and potential reasons which prompted the West to let up now, and carried out by proxy, direct aggression against a sovereign and peaceful country, for the nearly three years that conducted the war, various political analysts said a lot of words and put forward many versions. I call those that seem to me the most important and rational (not related to the mysticism of various kinds):
· Syria objectively opposed to the creation of a unified Middle East Sunni Caliphate.
· Victory in Syria definitively removes Russia from the Mediterranean basin, where their important events are scheduled around the possession of Leviathan, a portion of which, incidentally, claims and Syria itself.
· After Syria lies the most convenient route of the pipeline system to pump Qatari gas to Europe. Control of Syria, it is the control of these flows.
· Syria is Iran's only major ally in the region. Moreover, the attack on Iran is physically impossible without elimination of the current government in Syria. More precisely, it is possible only from the sea and from the Persian Gulf. The war in the Gulf threatens to block oil supplies from the region, the attack only from the sea does not guarantee anything, but the attack on the Israeli side rests against air defense systems and radar to Syria that detects an attack long before the borders of Iran.
· Syria is very convenient to use, even forced, to begin the process of eliminating Israel. It is no accident Assad in response to the announcement of a possible attack on Syria first responders purposes is called Israel. Nowhere more of its missiles are not physically reach. Is that in the border regions of Turkey, that a painful reaction disparate goals.
In principle, the title enough to the West in the "Arab Spring" showed a great desire to bring "democracy to the downtrodden of the Syrian people." 2. Why Syria Russia, why do we cling so tenaciously to preserve its current government?
To understand why Syria is Russia, and why our government is so calmly reacted to the destruction of Libya, but perseveres all available means to resist a similar scenario in Syria, we should consider the overall geo-strategic concept that carries the West in the Middle East.
The ultimate goal of world behind the scenes, to move a pawn Western power lies in Russia. I will not argue that it is the aim of destroying Russia. This is just one of the options. The goal is total control of Russia with its nuclear potential. For this is the third time in our recorded history realized the same scenario - Russia hostile to cover an arc from the south. The first time it was an attempt of Alexander the Great, acting on the instructions of his teacher and one of the dark priests of Aristotle. A second attempt is made Hitler. The third is now being prepared. Why is the South so important? Repeated attempts to collide with Russia from the West failed. Dogs knights, Napoleon, Hitler, they not only suffered a defeat, but also brought our troops on a mission of vengeance on the territory of Europe itself. These painful lessons is unlikely to ever be forgotten. Of course, we try to use ports not own troops, and bought Slavs from Poland and now the Ukraine, can not be excluded, their puppeteers do not mind, but the proximity of the root of the European territory is very annoying and cool the hot heads. From the south all the easier. First, Muslims do not mind, and, as a backstage, and by Muslims, can be easily mass zombie religious precepts. Second, in contrast to the southern European destinations much more extended, and tightly cover all the borders is impossible in principle. To do this, no troops will not be enough. Third, comfortable lines of defense of the southern borders are not located on the territory of Russia proper, and on the territory of Central Asian states, which makes them an order of magnitude more permeable. As a result, potentially we can get a single arc of military confrontation on the North Caucasus (Georgia and potentially through Azerbaijan) to Pakistan. And even the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons does not guarantee an easy victory, not to mention the selection of sites on which to beat. On their own territory? According to the Central Asian States, missed the fellow from the south? Or at the very southern states? And how many of these charges need?
What does the backstage control of Russia? It is neither more nor less, gives it control of China, the last independent force on the planet, able to have their say. Until forced into submission by means of nuclear destruction. Backlash for Russian backstage do not care. Not her. If Russia, even surrounded on all sides by enemies, refuses to comply, the case will enter its plan of destruction attack from the south and a simultaneous attempt to take control of Russia's nuclear potential by the Western special forces. The result - already China's environment from all sides coercion or destruction. That is, all the same target option.
As long as the potential implementation of the plan hinders the existence of an independent and stubbornly resisted external pressure Iran, the weakness of Georgia after 888 and contradictory situation in Iraq after the collapse of mass of the American contingent. But Ruhnu Iran, all these problems are solved quickly enough. The reasons for the impossibility of an attack on Iran without the destruction of Syria, see above.
There is another argument. Prepare a serious fighter is not easy. It takes time, money and a special mentality, which has only a certain percentage of people. The more now is die in Syria, the weaker will be the case that their pressure on Russia, when before that, God forbid, come the case. That is the task Assad and performs. Performs well for the third consecutive year, the horde grinding one after another and the wind blowing in the billions invested in them.
The third reason why Russia has persistently supported Assad, this time. The longer the Assad regime is opposed to the mercenaries behind the scenes, the better she will be able to prepare Russia to its almost inevitable participation in the war at a later stage.
3. Can the Russian protect Syria?
All the screamers are screaming surrender Russia Syria is spread out on the table a large map (to see detail features) and introduce yourself the greatest military leader of all time. And try to resist aggression by using its own military force. The mere absence of common borders between Russia and Syria, making it an effective defense impossible. More precisely with the help of our deliveries of arms, a certain number of "volunteer trainers" from Russia and Iran with the Mujahideen and fragmented "wild geese", which with the world on a string typed backstage for money of Arab Sheikhs, Assad and the Syrian army and copes well. Is no longer required. But a serious war against the Western coalition he did not hold out any, or with the support of Russia and Iran in any way. And he knows it.
You can simply estimate that Russia could oppose the West militarily. Nuclear war we are not going to start, though not the edge, but otherwise we do not have many resources. Even with the collected forest of Pine with three fleet squadron can not do anything at the start of really serious conflict. More precisely can, but it is not save itself. Let's even suppose what our glorious Navy sink three times as many enemy ships than the sink itself. So, what is next? And then the West there are still dozens of ships of different classes and unlimited opportunities for their production around the world, and our combat-capable fleet already at the bottom. Then there is nothing to fight. With a fleet understood.
Now take the aircraft. The nearest potential base from which can take off our planes in Armenia to Damascus just over a thousand kilometers. Fuel in the tanks back and forth. A fight like? And shut the base in Armenia is not so difficult. Aviation disappears.
What do we have left? Infantry and armored vehicles? Well, on the ground west of Syria does not intend to go down. He was enough air. On the ground, the work will finish the mujahideen when the army bombed. With our troops or separately it does not matter. Result forecast.
To absolutely complete this topic, talk about the air defense. It is good in Syria, our modern and pretty. Is there or not the C-300, is the question of how and what should it be there in terms of strategy. An air defense victories are not achieved. Thin out enemy air enough that is. Do I have to shine the C-300, to add to the dozen or downed aircraft, but quite light the technology of interception? I have no clear answer to this. Not an expert. If there is such a risk, the Assad easier to manage additional batteries of the same Buka, good distance in the region much of anything is not affected. All the enemy base will be next.
4. What can oppose Russia in response to the aggression in Syria?
Even a cursory analysis of the situation around Syria shows that if backstage rested, entirely cease to accept arguments and attack Syria, to keep her from doing so Russia can not. Either you have to pay so much more somewhere in something else, that these options are not considered. Direct response in the form of joining the war for Russia as possible. We understand only that. What do we do? And still we search for and find any asymmetric response to these challenges. And, apparently, the options of the responses we have. Yesterday's position in terms of Brzezinski, had not seen in a pigeon's, says that is not all there is smooth and easy.
The most interesting is that it seems Russia is hinting at such options. Today's information that we can stop the supply of US rocket engines RD-170, without which no American rocket with the satellite does not fly, says a lot. Even more obvious answer is seen in the financial sector. Not even to take those unfortunate figures already drawn for Russia in the complex of Western banks. A failure to continue to fund their economies. I am sure that in this case the same godly China will support us. The result can be a powerful financial crisis, followed by a talk about the economic recovery, the exit from the crisis and the island of stability will be forgotten on the fact forever. Yes, in this case we have a hard time himself, and I'm not ready to say that such silnodeystvuyusche medicine, sending the world economy into a deep knockout, is sure to be applied in response to the attack in Syria. Painfully irrevocable step for mankind is comparable with a massive nuclear strike. But there may be other, less drastic steps in the same vein. Prohibition of transit from Afghanistan while funding "partisans" on the Pakistani transit route. What is not an option. I am sure that dozens of relevant specialists.
5. What would have to do in Iran, and the situation in Iran is different from the situation in Syria?
But in Iran, unlike Syria, we have to behave radically differently. And not only us, but apparently, and China. If we are lost, then China will not save anyone or anything. And he knows it. If Iran were to fall, then the war on our south is imminent and very close. In this situation, simply pull becoming meaningless. In Iran, we have to fight in an adult, by all means. The benefit of the common border on the Caspian Sea there. Here there and it's time to C-300, and other known and unknown public weapons systems.
6. A brief summary.
Leaving aside the emotions and attempts to form at very specific audience, or a predetermined view, we can see that Russia is doing in Syria and continues to do maxims of what is right and sensible. We can not save Syria, but we can and try to play for time. Time is a very serious factor. The crisis in the West are growing like a snowball despite all attempts to verbally confuse millions of suckers are interested in this process all over the world. How much rope does not veysya, and the end of the show is already close and even can see. So every day, the won, is already a victory. And this is how it should be treated. To be honest, I'm just amazed at how Assad managed to hold out for long. At least a year longer than I expected. It really heroism. He, his family, the Syrian army, and all the Syrian people, who refused to bow down humbly and meekly to die, as they had been ordered to the western scenario. That is they just have revealed an example of true Jihad and fight for the faith. They are not those who oppose them, under the guise of faith in Allah. Thank them and honor their dead, still alive.
And how many times over the years was rising hope that Syria stood. With a little more, and she wins. But backstage he has driven itself into a corner and can not retreat. Refuse to war in Syria, then to show their weakness, and it is immediate death. Death government forces, built on fear and death power of the dollar to hold onto power. Most likely, they will fight for their power to last. Nevertheless, the world, as opposed to already won backstage. Already forced the West to enter the war directly. And this is a sign of weakness, not strength. The West, led behind the scenes weaker and increasingly forced to rely on the phenomenon, not the latent power has been a century before. And any explicit powers, has its weak points, which can and should be beaten, destroying it completely.