The acute phase of the Ukrainian crisis has passed. The main question - whether Putin dares to send troops to the east of Ukraine decided not dare. Although the military-economic and geo-strategic logic directly required input. An irrigation canal, electricity, raw materials for industry and the export of manufactured products - all this dictates the need to take control of the infrastructure surrounding areas. Otherwise, Crimea - the besieged enclave. Weak port terminals is certainly not ready to accept the increased flow of goods, so the tales of supply by sea, as well as the construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait (at least 3-4 years) - an idle propaganda. In addition there is a factor of Transnistria, which was in the grip of an unfriendly between Moldova and even more unfriendly (now) Ukraine. So land corridor Lugansk, Odessa, up to the border with Transnistria - necessary from a tactical point of view of the thing.
However, the military is opposed to the logic of the logic of politics. The Kremlin did not expect such a unity of the West. It was supposed to shut up and make some noise - both from Georgia. But the prospect of sanctions third degree appeared very real - and sober reasoning, the regime can not sustain them. Secondly, every missed day increases the readiness of the Ukrainian army - it's what she did there. Without accurate shooting will not do, and the collective Putin does not want to zinc coffins and the glory of the initiator of the fratricidal war in the opponent's territory. Third, strategists have miscalculated the assessment of social support. Kiev authorities and zapadentsev in the East do not like - but this is not enough to happily welcome the little green men unmarked. Especially if you are going to shoot. A shoot - See above. - Have. East of Ukraine, of course, would like greater autonomy and independence. That is why he is not ready to replace Kiev recklessly go under Moscow. Instead, aware of the weakness of the current Kiev authorities, the eastern regions is more favorable wage bargaining to raise the status just to them, but not with no alternative Kremlin.
Confirmation of the Kremlin's unwillingness to escalate Corporation was the acquisition of Sechin fallen in price after the Anschluss Crimean shares of "Rosneft" 1 billion. Rubles. Sechin perfectly informed, and if he had waited aggravation, to hold off a week or two, until the course does not fail even lower - which inevitably would happen after the invasion. So, I do not expect. The question is, where in his pocket at the right time there was an extra billion, leave aside.
Night calling Putin to Obama and the subsequent reversal of the aircraft J. Kerry for the Paris meeting with Lavrov, was a clear signal of the desire to discuss the conditions of retreat in exchange for unlocking Transnistria and "federalization" of Ukraine. The Americans, in spite of sincere faith patriotic public are not fools. Read the signal as it should read: Kremlin fears to tread.
One can only sympathize with Minister Lavrov. He dropped out to defend positions which hold basically impossible. He did everything he could, with grief running before meeting a bunch of tall tales about Transnistria "Right Sector" and snipers. Not for Kerry, of course - and podstelit straw patriotic public. To her it was chewed, when you have nothing to say. But the policy of the rules - if the partner is clear in advance that you have weighed the pros and cons of the invasion and realized that ass naderut too painful, silly demand that the reward for taking care of your own ass you even took away the diplomatic carrots. Therefore, Mr. Kerry showed predictable intransigence: one, ladies and gentlemen, you are not lugging Crimean mousetrap. So eat a free lunch, telling supporters that pinched tail does not hurt. US dry insist on connecting the Kiev government to negotiate - the same about the illegitimacy of that loud talk in the Kremlin. And yet, it seems, will have to agree - as long as hopes of destabilizing the breakaway and Eastern Ukraine are not met.
Weigh the dry residue. The story begins with ambitious promises to return to Ukraine (all entirely!) In the sphere of influence of Moscow, embedding it in the Customs Union and the Eurasian system of values. This maximum program. She obviously failed. It is the turn of the minimum program - take under his wing even though the East of Ukraine, together with Crimea. In the language of the Corporation is indicated by the code word "federalization". First this wonderful idea even during the Orange Revolution of 2004 announced the director of the Institute of CIS countries K.F.Zatulin. Then he put it boldly, and interpreted the "federalization" as an invitation to the West Ukrainian failing in its Europe and East to return to Russia's sphere of influence. The difference between the then corporate notions of "federalization" lay in the illusion that East default includes Kiev. Today, ambitions are reduced: we hear passionate speeches about "our" Donbass and Kharkiv; less about Odessa. Kiev 10 years polegonku migrated to the West - the natural result of the greater attractiveness of European system of values in comparison with the patriotic tales Corporation.
It is useful to bear in mind that the term "federalization" in the mouths of Angela Merkel and other European politicians means something quite different - a purely internal status relationship between the Earth and the federal government under a single sovereign state. Approximately in federal Germany, or in federal US. Most likely, the redistribution of the territorial status of Ukraine is still not escape - but she really try to do in this case without the fraternal assistance of the Kremlin.
March 30, it became clear that the minimum program, too, failed. Collective Putin is forced to be satisfied with the symbolic victory in the Crimea, which responds to short-term surge in popularity and long-term financial and economic difficulties of the content of subsidized enclave in the troubled neighborhood. Plus growing international isolation. Plus the expected blockade of Transnistria - and what you expected? Plus the expected actions of the West in the oil and gas area. Victory fanfare otzvuchat, and the problems remain.
To disrupt the elections of the new president of Ukraine can not. Although attempts will undoubtedly continue. Republican elites (yet?) Demonstrate the ability to compromise and form a sane electoral alliances. At the same time the candidates from the East will be hard priori: Yanukovych gracefully withdrew millions of disillusioned voters of the electorate of the Party of Regions. Putin is not less graceful swing subtracted another 1.5 million Crimean votes. So that the new president will soon Kiev than Donetsk. Moscow somehow have to deal with it - in a much less comfortable conditions than six months ago, when the Kremlin only brewing porridge with deceit Ukraine.
It is not difficult to foresee the future course of events. Compensating for gaps in the Ukrainian and international front, the Corporation will have to focus on tightening the nuts in domestic politics. Plugging the last independent media through which seeps objective assessment of management actions to deal with the Internet, the voice of a "fifth column" and complain about the imperialist encirclement. What other reaction from the nearest neighbors (Baltic States, Finland, Georgia, Moldova ...) you are pleased to expect from kondachka introducing troops into the territory of an independent state? Who and what, besides NATO can guarantee the security and sovereignty of these countries, where also live Russian people that the Kremlin suddenly want to protect?
With the transition of the Ukrainian crisis in long-term cold phase that is crucial soft power, the European system will continue to gradually strengthen its social and economic benefits to which to respond to the Kremlin nothing. Unless, of course, it does not take the answer green men unmarked and squealing Rashi Tudeyan, which has long been overlooked - it does not pay to talk TASS, who has always been authorized to declare something exotic.
West hurry. It feels good, gradually climbing out of the economic crisis in the wake of new technological solutions. Including energy. But about Putin's Empire of the pipeline does not say. Those who compares Putin's actions in Crimea with the actions of Hitler in Austria and the Sudetenland, overlook the important fact. Hitler turned expansionary program against the background of strong economic growth associated with the release of a global depression 30s and the beginning of a new long Kondratieff cycle. Economic wind blew in the sails of the reptile.
Putin desperately grabbed the Crimea on a background of clear recession in our economy - hoping to cover up the painful failure of the Customs Union. If you remove the tambourines TV shamans enjoy absolutely nothing. Convince yourself that 2 million citizens of the Crimea is more and better than remaining on irritated Ukraine 43 million - a task not for the average mind. I'm afraid even the incomparable D.Kiselev will not with the necessary pressure of blowing (or what he was doing) evidence against the wind.
The weather is clear: the trap shut. Free TV cheese over half a year, if not sooner. Pipeline Corporation remains the only topyrit fingers through the bars behind her quietly overtaking the developed countries. The Corporation does not mind - it is the place in the zoo. Pity those who devour or crush it in his cage before the die from the underfeeding of the well-known pattern. Russia is a pity that once again comes to the stormy, prolonged applause and cheers.
"Isolation", a word to which Russians have to get used soon. May God grant to 5 years, no more. Maybe for these 5 years are well equip Crimea, make him the pearl of the Black Sea, the better for us. When Crimea will return, it will be more beautiful than when we have overcome, hehe
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