State - a gang. That control some territory and resources on it with the help of the classical three branches of government. Can control mediated and other areas with resources which hosted the gang weaker. Vassals.
Gangs in their territories come into some public treaty relationships with people through institutions. These contractual relationships differ from despotism to almost direct democracy, where the control over the observance of the members of the gang of "concepts" of the people is much higher.
Gangs with each other too murchat on "concepts", which are called the system of international contractual relationship. Political, diplomatic, trade, military and so on., Subject to a certain hierarchy according to their abilities and impact on the world in general, each gang.
< What happened.
One of the gang, which is in the top 10 in the world (for me so now occupies 5-6 th) decided to take advantage of a strong right and in violation of the concepts of (international contractual relations) to overcome part of the gang in smaller weakened after a domestic crisis. That successfully did.
But in the eyes of the rest of the gang, and the strengths and weaknesses, it was "not on concepts," and is seen as a challenge to the world looking for (say top 3 bands). Moreover, this fact violates all conceptuality relationship gangs in different parts of the world, which can result in some time for a general stabbing here and there.
Weak bands now watching the situation, because this is seen as a challenge looking to present, such as "short, now I'm looking and concepts we change." If looking not react to spin territory, they would agree with this stated.
But gangster logic, and according to the same precedent in the history of the world, a sign of weakness leads to a loss of influence and, ultimately, the loss of the status of the beholder. And this is unacceptable.
Since watching - democratic countries, and the immediate punishment of disturber neproschityvaemymi fraught with consequences, but now they are engaged in an active formation of public opinion in their territories, and the formation of opinion among the vassals.
Then will be reviewed and evaluated the impact of the tools on the troublemaker. A lot of them really, economic, political, diplomatic, informational, civic, community. War - it is the last tool, and in our time it is not particularly necessary. It is clear only one troublemaker will eventually revealing punished after a while, because otherwise suffer watching and more.
And here, it seems, will work different classifications. Both economic (reduction of income from the resource base disturber, embargo, blockade), diplomatic (isolation of both the state and citizens) and to create opportunities for change that gang bosses (terrorism, civil war, separatism), and possibly the dismemberment of the gang for a few smaller gangs.
Therefore, in the short and medium term, regardless of how much Ukraine continue to suffer from the Russian Federation, we are afraid to see a lot wrong with the Russian Federation itself. Will download bubble Caucasian terrorists and Tartar / Buryat / Siberian separatists. And a lot of work to replace the Russian hydrocarbons other sources. And perhaps just dogovornyak a sharp decline in their prices with Saud, Iran and Venezuela same / Nigeria. The economic blockade of persons close to the bosses, as well as related market segments.
It is clear that the whole world will be in relation to the Russian Federation imposed the label "bad guy" (a holy struggle against the Evil Empire requires compromise, even such things as "income" and "share of the profits"). Will involve all "moles" who slept until the time of the "X" to start working to destabilize and dismantle the current state.
Consider that Putin's "era of stability" over the Crimea. And most likely it will lead to a split or RF or civil conflicts in the country, which I would not like. For as usual because of idiots suffer a lot of good people. While it may all end Maidan in Red Square, with a minimum number of victims, and this will be the best option for the Russians. But the territory, which will oversee Moscow, in any case reduced.
Perhaps Ukraine propetlyaet all these layouts without any loss, but most likely not. Because as a quick reaction to punish the offender looking not yet ready. But Putin seems to now have to squeeze as much territory and, more importantly, resources. And here in Ukraine has a choice - to become or Czechoslovakia or Finland late 30s.
Alas, this is one of the most likely scenarios. Short Second Cold War, which seems to get the most benefit China.
Upd. Cherry. Motivation Putin mouth Belkovsky. "The kid wants respect»
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