That will transport the independent Crimea?

Maybe someone knows, but to work on the Internet in various forms - by the optimizer, marketing managers, and so on - I did awhile career railwayman. Actually, my only higher education - a movement control engineer on the railroad, and the largest number of entries in the workbook devoted to the work of the head of the different stations and units slightly higher. My job is to transport occurred in the period 1996-2002 - that is, I began to study the case in the Soviet Union, and worked in the troubled 90th. By the way, the experience of other countries, I also got to know quite intensively.

In short, I decided this morning practicing a little memory on "The Office of the Crimea, and what's left of transport" and try to present the result of this process. I must say that does not pretend to be a complete understanding of the complexity of processes - there are lots of people who remember the relevant events of the mid 90's a lot better than mine. But to a first approximation, it seems to me, is enough.

Thus, we assume that tomorrow is independent of the Crimea in Ukraine. It seems quite clear that in this status it will be unrecognized territory all countries, except the Russian Federation (Nauru and Nicaragua, too, can not be considered). What awaits transport industry-Union resorts?

Let's start with the simplest - air transport. There are two options. Or air service is not at all with anyone. As in Abkhazia, whose blue sky once a week dissecting single AN-2 "Abkhazian Airlines" flying from Sukhumi in one of the villages. There do not fly even Russian airlines - as the flight on unrecognized Member States IATA territory could lead to sanctions in relation to the airline. Or simply be too expensive - 100% of the aircraft of Russian airlines insured or reinsured in the western insurers, and those flights or even overflight unrecognized territories is a basis for termination of the contract, or the basis for the application almost prohibitive tariff.

The second option - when air traffic is only with Russia. Repeats the situation with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Is there any of the flights should be made only from airports in Turkey or at least pre-aircraft must land in one of them. However, it is worth considering that Turkey will not quarrel so cool with the surrounding reality. I, frankly, do not know whether it is possible to IATA rules prohibit flights to Europe aircraft landed in Simferopol, but it "neotvergaemo." In the best case - any flight overseas residents to determine the Crimea will have to carry through Moscow, and not the fact that in a straight line rather than skirting the territory of Ukraine.

The second type of transport - rail. Here the process does not depend on the recognition of the territory, by the way. I will say briefly - with the experience of separation of railways of Ukraine and Russia, it is easy to imagine the process of separating the Crimea in this regard.

First of all - Railway deadlock in the Crimea and the connection with the rest of the world is only through the joints with the Ukrainian railways. Ferry "Crimea-Caucasus" seriously can not be seen - its turnover is insignificant and haul passenger trains ferries nobody will.

I repeat - we have already passed in the '90s, so it is clear about what might happen. All - absolutely all - freight and passenger traffic will have to stop for inspection immediately after crossing the border of the Crimea. More precisely, it will have to do twice - to the border for inspection in the Crimea and after for inspection in Ukraine. I believe, no one seriously start talking now about the harmonization and simplification of border procedures, what could lead to an acceleration of the process? Here is good, if not at least some processes will take place. And they will be difficult to pass - including because there is nowhere to stop convoys. Play-station - or rather, those who will be forced to butt - is the usual intermediate stations with one or two of receiving and departure paths, one or two passenger platforms, the absolute lack of specific platforms for inspecting freight trains, the same lack of infrastructure for border guards and customs - in short , there is nothing at all. There is not even a very large current flow stop nowhere - i.e. on the side of the path to take and give an hour, at least for its processing. And what happens in the summer? The answer is - nothing will happen. By calculating the estimated capacity at the border, refuse to accept any additional trains.

I should add that cars do not drive themselves. This requires locomotives. In Crimea, they are, that's just here's the thing - it now Simferopol depot locomotives hauling passenger trains sometimes right up to the Kharkiv. What happens when two-thirds or even more than the length of the locomotive have flights to the territory of a foreign state? In addition, the last few years the road is quite optimized train operation and as a result some depot specialize in freight trains, some on passenger - and if the scale of the Dnieper road complex the job is closed, the individual two depots (Simferopol and Dzhankoi) unlikely to be able to provide all the work. For example, export freight trains electric traction (ie, from Simferopol and further from Dzhankoi on the main course at Melitopol) will be nobody and nothing. A train service to establish an interstate scale - it's not five minutes. Let's take as an example - the process of resolving such issues between Ukraine and Russia took five or six years, and it is provided that the parties would agree, until 1 January 1992 to work as a structure and the state border novovoznikshie approximately coincide with the boundaries of the railways. Where such happiness did not happen - for example, on the Ukrainian-Moldovan border - the settlement process demanded interstate agreements, transfer of business from one state to another and stretched out for a long time - for example, Reni station and station Kuchurgan Ukraine took to his 2000.

The most likely outcome - a sharp decrease in bandwidth butt sections, and, consequently, the entire route. That is - translating into understandable language - a sharp decrease in the number of passenger trains and increasing the time they appear.

There are still here what problem - in the Crimea is no separate enterprise "Railway". Crimea Crimean Directorate served plus linear transport companies - depot distance path and so on. Directorate - a rather modest enterprise engaged in transportation management and plant management. Depot, permanent way, communication and other things - they are separate organizations that depend heavily on the respective service and in general from the railway. I do not know how many of them are self-supporting, but small. And definitely money they do not have to self-financing. And, as the region unloading (ie the volume of the discharge volume loading above), most of the money comes from the railroad in Dnepropetrovsk - that is, they are not even with a gun to gather in the Crimea, they are physically located beyond. That is, there just is not any complete infrastructure or organizationally or financially. The same applies to the supply of capital and work - in the Crimea, no audio track machine station, which is engaged in overhaul of ways, for example, the nearest is based in Novoalekseevka, just behind Chongarsky isthmus. Two-thirds of the way areas - diesel, means for shunting of trains and will need plenty of diesel fuel. In short, the probability that all this economy stake will rise very high.

I would not rely on Kerch and there the crossing. Firstly, now 50 cars smuggled well and there is no passenger rail service. Secondly, from Kerch to the rest of the Crimea - in the transport plan - almost 200 km single-track electrified sectors. That is, even if by magic suddenly arise railway bridge with two routes between Taman and Kerch - which have not even begun to build - bandwidth is still God forbid the train 12-15 per day, which at times less possibilities of joints with Ukraine.

Finally, maritime transport. In Crimea, there are 5 commercial seaports. Something tells me that they will fall in turnover is quite strong. Firstly, if the railway does not bring and will take away, the ports as transshipment point of the cars in the ship and back, have a special work will not. Why bring the railroad and will take away a lot less, we have already considered.

Secondly, with ships about the same story as with the aircraft - they are insured. And very often - in Western companies. And these companies are not particularly welcome Motorboats objects of their responsibility in the hot spots of the unrecognized territories. And why, if you drop off freight cars at any other port in Ukraine and make the ship go?

As for passenger transport by sea - absolutely do not see, and it did not work without boundaries.

What we have left of transport? Suburban transport, ie trains and diesel trains. He will remain, although diesel train may suffer from a lack of diesel fuel. And the car - how much is enough gasoline.

And note - there is not a single word meant any blockade. As no discussion of how transportation will be unprofitable as a result of the peninsula. No, this is simply an attempt to list all the difficulties that arise in any case, simply on the fact of the presence of the border in a certain place.

I would be glad if correct me - yet I have not followed the work of transport and some things can not be ignored.
Source blognot.co/11741