Georgian-Ossetian conflict will change the future of the international Kiev and Moscow
So, what all have been told it happened. Georgian armed forces stormed South Ossetia. On Wednesday, August 6, it seemed that in the border area of the unrecognized republic going ordinary skirmish that has become commonplace in the last 3-4 years.
By the evening of August 8 the capital of South Ossetia Tskhinvali practically destroyed and on fire. 150 Georgian soldiers were wounded, killed 15 civilians. Russia imposed on Georgian territory their tanks, Tbilisi, in turn, accuses Moscow of aggression and promise to declare war. Before large-scale fighting between the two countries was one step.
The course of events depends on Ukraine and Russia. The latter, due to the Olympic Games in 2014, can not disobey without regard world opinion which calls on Russia not to interfere in the conflict. But at the same time, Russia can not give up his supporters in South Ossetia, otherwise lose Caucasus.
By the evening of the second day of fighting in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, fighting continued. The Georgian army controls almost half of the city and its suburbs. At the same time, the city entered a column of Russian armored vehicles that could get on the territory of South Ossetia as a result of the counteroffensive South Ossetians and unlock the Zar road. According to the Russian Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation to South Ossetia has sent military equipment to help the Russian peacekeepers who were killed at this time more than 10, and about 30 were wounded.
As a result of the two-day bombardment of the capital of South Ossetia practically destroyed and on fire. Lights every second house. Civilians morning hiding from bullets in the basements of houses. From 15:00 to 18:00, Georgian forces stopped shelling Tskhinvali. so that civilians could leave the city. Take the refugees from South Ossetia is ready to Chechnya.
Besides Russian tanks crossed the state border of Georgia's Russian fighters. According to Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgian forces shot down two aircraft.
Despite the threat of Russia to declare war on Georgia if Russian troops enter the territory of South Ossetia, Tbilisi has not made an official statement. At the same time Georgia is withdrawing its troops from Iraq: "One brigade of Georgian armed forces located in Iraq. Tomorrow we will withdraw them back. This is against the background of Russia started from an open military aggression against Georgia, "- Saakashvili said.
South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali destroyed. Refugees ready to accept Chechnya.
Recall: August 6, Georgia launched a massive bombardment of the South Ossetian fighting systems "Grad", howitzers and mortars. Artillery from the air covers aviation. Georgian peacekeepers came from the authority of staff of joint forces for maintaining peace in the conflict zone.
Russia: the inevitable decision
The official position of Russia in the South Ossetian conflict is not known. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev after the morning vaguely stated that impunity will not allow the death of their compatriots in South Ossetia is no longer made any statements. Against the background of the presence of Russian armed forces in South Ossetia, the Kremlin is trying to pretend that is not involved in the conflict.
This behavior of the Russian Federation due to the fact that the world community has rejected the idea of Moscow by Russian forces to resolve the conflict. Representatives of the European Union, the White House, the UN and NATO called on Georgia and Tskhinvali to cease confrontation, but Russia to withdraw troops from the border with Georgia and not to send its volunteers.
Ignore the statement of the Russian Federation without regard can not be. When Russia occupied Georgia, it will drive itself, if not in the camp of marginalized countries, precisely in the ranks of those in the international community have a serious problem.
2014 to be held in Sochi Olympics. The military involvement of Russia in the Caucasus may lead to the fact that the Russian Federation will lose the license to carry it out and, by the way, Georgia provides electricity to Sochi.
The most advantageous position for the Russian Federation is now expectant. The Kremlin wants Georgia declared war on Russia. But she is also in no hurry to do so. If this happens, it will be the aggressor, Georgia, and Tbilisi diplomats convince the world that are not offensive and defensive tactics.
If Russia declares war on Georgia, she can take the Winter Olympics.
Ukraine: a strategic choice
Viktor Yushchenko, whose family ties linked with Saakashvili, not in a hurry to make any unnecessary movements in the direction of the South Ossetian conflict. The President sent a messenger in Tbilisi represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Konstantin Yeliseyev.
According to the director of the International Institute for Democracy (Ukraine) Sergey Taran, our country should be directly involved in the conflict resolution. In addition to the friendly relations, Ukraine, the Caucasus is important geopolitically.
In the first place, Ukraine is not a stranger to the population of the Caucasus, and it is perceived in some way as usual. We can take advantage of, and get in this region a significant international influence.
The international community will only support Ukraine on this path, as in the Caucasus is a political crossroads. Russia aims to have a monopoly in this region is the impact that the international community is not well accepted. The emergence of Ukraine as a political player in the Caucasus, would dilute the influence of Russia.
Internet newspaper "NOW" Taran said that in light of current events in South Ossetia Ukraine is obliged to help Georgia with food, weapons and send its peacekeepers. The silence of official Kiev can be explained by the fact that Ukraine is waiting for the blessing of the world organization in the direction of peacekeepers in Georgia. It is important that peacekeeping forces in Ukraine have an international mandate. If it exists, we will represent the position of the largest countries in the world, not your personal.
The inevitable future
Russian-Ukrainian relations because of the Ossetian conflict, experts believe the Internet newspaper "NOW" is not worse, as they have long razlazheny.
Leader of "Brotherhood" Dmitry Korchinskiy who participated in the 90's in the Abkhazian-Georgian conflict, believes that Ukraine is obliged to help Georgia defend its territorial integrity for the sake of their future.
If Ukraine does not want to be in front of the Crimea, it must support the front with Russia in the Caucasus - Korchinskiy.
"There is no point, in order not to spoil relations with either Russia or Georgia. We must realize that if we do not want to have the edge in the Crimea, we have to maintain a Russian front in the Caucasus ».
Despite the military intrigue, one thing is clear: neither Russia nor Georgia can not afford to retreat. The Kremlin can not leave his people in a hot spot. Georgia, stepping back, lose not only South Ossetia but other unrecognized states - Abkhazia.
This is war, whatever it is over, ushered in a new era of Georgia. Unwind situation and try to restore the old Georgian-Ossetian-Russian relations will never succeed.