Boris Nemtsov: Crimean outcome

Let us objectively. And without much emotion. Putin won tactically.
After what he had the main goal? Protect Russian in Crimea? No, of course. They are there no one has touched. Protect the Black Sea Fleet? No, of course. He did not threaten anyone, and the lease was valid until 2042. Prevent Ukraine into NATO? So now the chances of joining the alliance only grown.

The main objective was Putin to consolidate his power. And she achieved. Rating exceeded 80%. Opposition in the paddock of repression and isolation. Rallies probably quite soon banned. Censorship has captured not only the TV, but the internet. Duma voted unanimously governors hand, though regions in poverty. Elections? You what? About corruption, kickbacks and cuts somehow forgotten. Now Putin is doing nephew.

But he lost strategically. All in net. Russia gave China. Selecting this and harmful and unnatural. Europeans step by step, not immediately of course, and leave from Gazprom and oil dependence from Putin. China will remain. In May, Putin is likely to sign an extortionate agreement on gas supply to China. The price will be less than $ 300. The Chinese know how to twist arms, especially when they know that they have no alternative. Gas pipeline from Yakutia and Irkutsk region in Siberia, China-Force will cost 50 billion dollars - one more Olympics. Part of the money will be given in exchange for the Chinese price decline. But most chastzaplatim we are due to an increase in tariffs. The rising cost of gas is higher prices for everything, and communal, and products, and gasoline. The Ministry of Finance has acknowledged that without an increase in the retirement age pension system will not survive. 200 billion per year for the maintenance of the Crimea will pay a small business. The tax burden on it will double. Friendship with the Chinese people will pay off.

In addition, the inevitable arms race. Surrounded by enemies! Even friends of the Chinese also strive to chop off Siberia and the Far East. Russia's economy is 12 times smaller than European and American, and 4 times less than the Chinese. On the right? Nadorvemsya? Due to what will fund the army and the military industrial complex? Right. Health, education, pensions. Children, the elderly. And even at the expense of cheap labor from Central Asia. Cool, is not it?
But our Crimea! Thus here!


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