According to the Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the Association of European Businesses in the Russian Federation, for the first 9 months of 2007 the market grew by 63%: in the last year during which time it sold 699,474 passenger cars of foreign manufacture, in this - already 1 137 238. In the light of new cars Russian production was sold 1.675 million. This is 31, 4% more than in the same period last year.
According to forecasts of agency "AUTOSTAT", in 2007 the total sales of new cars in Russia will amount to 2.28 million units, of which 680,000 are domestic brands, and increase in fleet cars for the year 2007 will be 1, 5-1, 7 million units (25, 8%) - next year it could rise to 2 million units. The agency noted that the monthly volume of new car sales in Russia in the last three months consistently exceed the mark of 200 thousand units.
According to various estimates, the growth of the Russian car market will continue for at least the next six years, an average of about 25% per year. According to the experts of "AUTOSTAT", at current rates of growth and changes in the structure of the vehicle fleet in the next few years, the number of cars and Russian models will be equal in 2012. By the time registered in the Russian traffic police will be of the order of 36-38 million cars, including 18-19 million cars and the same number of Russian models.
The main reason why the Russians are buying more cars - the overall growth of the economy. Sales growth will prevail in the B- and C-classes, as well as in the segment of luxury. Leaders in the near future is likely to remain the same until: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota, mainly due to the launch assembly plants in Russia. Launch of competitive models Asian brands, which are more rapidly respond to market demand, will lead to strong growth in sales of Chinese cars. Analysts expect sales of Chinese cars in Russia by 2012 will rise to 300 000 and more, so the market share of Asian manufacturers in 2015 may exceed all other brands. While the share of Lada year will decline by about 10%.
Russia's role in the context of the global automotive industry will only grow stronger.
According to the forecast of PricewaterhouseCoopers in the ninth annual "International financial review, the automotive industry" (Global Automotive Financial Review), by 2014 the global volume of the assembly of passenger cars will increase by 19% - from 65, 2 million 77, 6 million cars. However, the economy and production in Europe and America in the near future will be in recession. At the forefront of the BRIC countries, which include Brazil, Russia, India and China and other developing countries. The volume of car assembly in the BRIC countries in 2006 amounted to 16% of the world, it is projected that in 2014, will rise to 23%.
According to Ernst & Young in the review "The Russian automotive market" in 2007 (The Russian Automotive Market), the volume of production of the Chinese auto industry has entered the 3rd place in the world after the US and Japan. Russia is in 8th place, but by 2010 should reach the level of Germany (3, 5 million vehicles a year), which now occupies the 4th place after the United States, Japan and China. In the Japanese market, the most mature in the Asia-Pacific region during this period the volume of car assembly will remain relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 250 thousand. Cars (2%).
The experts unanimously tipped powerful and stable development of the auto industry in Russia in the near future due to the new car assembly plants, noting that the investments that were made last year, automakers will be more than justified. Now in Russia successfully operate seven assembly plants, providing more than 30% of the total volume produced cars. According to the forecast of Ernst & Young, to the end of 2007, production capacity of foreign cars in Russia will amount to 600 thousand cars a year, and by 2010 they will grow up to 800-900 thousand. Cars a year.
Analysts say that the turning point for the Russian automobile industry began in 2006, when investors seemed to look at it with different eyes and for the first time in a long time, began to invest. This immediately led to the development of the most related industries, which will also develop in the near future - is the production of components and logistics. Over the past two years, there were about 40 new companies for the production of automotive components in 14 regions of Russia. Continue improving supply chains, automotive enterprises in the new study will interact with each other, will develop the transport infrastructure to continue the expansion of producers and dealers in the regions.
It is hoped that by 2012 the Russian car industry will not last minor "screwdriver appendage" of the global automotive industry, and a major industrial area and a full-fledged sector of the Russian economy ...