The 2008 crisis: How deep will Ass !?

Well, today the seven fat years come to an end, and Russia overtook worldwide Ass. Outside the window is about to end another "Black Tuesday." More specifically, the stock markets have fallen (to 2005 levels), and the oil price has broken through the $ 90 mark and, apparently, will continue to decline further.

Trading on the Russian stock exchanges - RTS and MICEX, the fall in which today is almost 10%, stopped due to the special order of the Federal Service for Financial Markets to 12.10 Moscow time.

After that, if you look, is a ass? Ass can be schematically represented in the form of financial scissors. One blade - this is our income. The second blade - our costs. Between these two blades are suspended our eggs.

When it is the financial crisis, our earnings sharply reduced and sharpened blade is dangerously close to the sensitivity of the skin. If we are able to reduce costs or to slow down the progress of the blade of credit - it's all right. Our eggs are safe. But if the costs can not be reduced, and credit, we have no one gives something ... schёlk! There is pretty much what we saw in 1998. When their debts could not pay first, the Russian Federation, and behind her, and a huge number of commercial organizations.

What is the difference Crisis 2008 Crisis of 1998? The fact that Russia is today a huge cash cushion (popularly known as the Stabilization Fund). Dolgov also from Russia, on the contrary, a relatively sparsely. Consequently, the financial ominous scissors we will not get any: even if oil falls to $ 8 per barrel (which is very unlikely), we just we shall take out the necessary amount of money from the stock. That is, the rate rublin not fall and, consequently, the dollar debts of the enterprises do not grow simultaneously several times, like ten years ago.

Real problems could theoretically be only the owners of apartments and mortgage kreditomobiley. If they are fired from their jobs, to give credit to them will be nothing, and therefore, they fall into those same scissors.

But in practice, I think, mass layoffs can be expected. The shortage in the market now a monstrous, and hope to eliminate this deficit crisis smaller, IMHO, is naive. I think, will be a little easier to find a qualified employee, that's all.
For reference: "What do the RTS and the MICEX?»

The RTS and MICEX is the average change in prices of shares of the largest Russian companies, such as Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank (the so-called "blue chips»)


Many of us Ssali in his ears from the TV screen, magazines, newspapers, called home ... like buy mutual funds, stocks, everything will zashib ... now remember the faces of our best analysts (who at the beginning of the year gave forecasts for the RTS) and do not believe they never ...


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