Recent publications on the prospects of airships and hybrids on the basis of aerostatic transport aircraft (ATLA), in both domestic and foreign specialized publications, show continuing interest in this mode of transport. But the inconsistency of performance evaluations and use reflects the active scientific research of its developers and potential users.Alduchov Alexander.Senior auditor of internal audit Department of JSC "Aeroflot". In 1980 he graduated from RCII HA. After finishing full-time post-graduate RCII HA in 1989 he defended thesis on "Improvement of production and economic activity air traffic control GA. Worked as a researcher o'neill-7 (RCII HA), leading economist of MTS auvd, from 1990 to 1994 head of the Department of contracts and prices, the Deputy chief of service of economy and development of TSU MVS. In 1994-97 G. G. worked as a representative of the JSC "Aeroflot" in Rome, since 1997 in various positions in the financial and commercial divisions of Aeroflot. Currently holds the post of senior auditor of internal audit Department of JSC "Aeroflot". Has a scientific and methodological developments in the field of forecasting economic and financial planning, costing and pricing of air transportation, air navigation and airport services. Participated in the preparation of the concept of reforming the MGA, the creation of Rosaeronavigatsiya and settlement system on the basis of air navigation and airport charges.
Illustrative example – adopted by the government of the Ulyanovsk region with enthusiasm in 2010, a five-year program for the construction of Zeppelin-shaped with trimillennium budget entitled "Creating thermoballasted aerostatic aircraft(1). The project was presented at the MAKS-2009 lokomoskay, OAO on the basis of the development of Soviet engineers in the 80-ies. Was prepared by order of the President of the Russian Federation of 24.11.2009, the order of the government of Ulyanovsk region dated 26.02.2010, agreements, and funds allocated.
But three years later, in July 2012, its decision, the government was forced to cancel the program (2). The project contains significant technical errors. The reason can be briefly explained by the conclusions of experts about the absence in the world at that period of the implemented designs and materials, confirming the ability to create airships with lifting capacity of 600 tons and even much less.
The failure of such a large project will indicate a problem – the barrier between the scientific validity of the creation of the unit and the possibility of its industrial implementation. The question arises whether it is possible to envisage all the difficulties of operation of such large systems has reached the science level of analysis and modeling of their real control.
The degree of complexity of the task is confirmed by the absence of the practice of creating such giants in the world and, accordingly, their operating experience. Heavy lifting of ATLA in the world exist only in projects that fly, mostly, their model with the capacity to 1-2 tons.
In February 2013, in the United States were cancelled the program to build the biggest airship last time LEMV (Long Endurance Multi-Intelligence Vehicle), was performed according to the plans of the Pentagon and Northrop Grumman consumed 517 million. Officially, the reasons given technical and production problems, financial constraints (3).
With modern developments in aviation, nuclear, engineering industries, space exploration, science has faced difficulties, which seemingly were insurmountable within 30 years of the twentieth century. The record of the airship LZ 129 Hindenburg (1936-1937), which had a length of 246 m and a lifting capacity of 120 tons, modern ATLA yet to be overcome (4). However, technological solutions that period, conclude the experts of modern systems of primitive and dangerous.
Scientific and pseudo-scientific debate about the possibility of creating. superpresident 500 and 1,000 tons at conferences and on the Internet increases. The media and advertisers to confidently announce scientific-production breakthrough in this direction (5,6). Developers in search of investors, confirm the possibility of ATLA, but achievable currently level payload limit 60 tons.
As an economist-transport workers, working in aviation, I am interested in new developments and scientific and professional point of view. The problem of creation and, most importantly, the use of more efficient means of transport to our vast territories is a breakthrough and a new step of development of the aviation industry. Of practical interest is the evaluation of the economic effect of the introduction of ATLA in operation, however, under conditions of uncertainty characteristics and cost parameters, the results will be approximate. At the same time, it can be used to answer controversial from the perspective and reality of the question whether the critical lift the "heaviness" of ATLA, she the main driver of the airship or other arguments are less important?
Initially will conduct analytical comparability of apparatus lighter than air with other vehicles (vehicle) according to the parameters of its predominant performance.
The main advantages of ATLA described in sufficient amounts in the techno-economic literature on transport problems. Briefly state, in our opinion, the most important. This:
— higher energy efficiency arising due to the compensation of its own weight, at a considerable distance, compared to other aircraft types and some types of ground transportation;
— requires an order of magnitude less expensive the construction and maintenance of the ground infrastructure, including facilities for terminal transportation operations and maintenance;
— has a higher level of navigational capacity compared to other modes of transport, allowing for straightening and route optimization, delivery of goods and passengers to the desired location without additional time and economic costs of transportation;
— economic profitability of combining transport: followed by installation of oversized and heavy cargo; with the use of large interior spaces of vehicles for work, including on the subject of transportation: medical, research, control departmental, team, etc.;
— energetically less expensive implementation of the recovery, clearance to a considerable height specialized platforms industrial, research, military and other nature compared with airplane, helicopter and rocket technology.
These and other factors, the theoretical efficiency of ATLA, along with higher safety and environmental friendliness of transport, allow at least to put them on a par with other vehicles and to implement intensive research and experimental work on introduction in the transportation industry.
Departing from the analysis, adding that the interest in realizing the benefits of Express and government agencies, and private investors. Prospects of development were actively discussed at a recent international conference "logistics of oversized and heavy cargoes: Russia, Baltic countries and CIS", Moscow, 2011 (7), "Transport airship for the North" 2013, anchorage (USA) (8), etc.
The most successful projects to date have been international programs. Tested and preparing for the start of operation of the cargo airship company Lockheed Martin P-791, commissioned by the Agency of Pentagon DARPA. In 2013, the canadian firm Alberta-based Aviation Capital Enterprises of calgary, signed a contract with Lockheed Martin for delivery of commercial airships, should Fund the development, certification and production of a series of aircraft SkyTug based on the demonstrator of the hybrid airship P-791. The first flight of the P-791 took place in 2006(9). Also in production are developed in 1997 by the German firm, Luftschifftechnik GmbH & Co KG from the city of Friedrichshafen, the Zeppelin NT airships. (10) significant results in testing in 2013 reached California Corporation Aeros, USA, and British company Hybrid Air Vehicles. The important thing is that all of these companies in varying degrees of support structures (11).
In Russia in 2012 was announced two of the project. Newspaper "Vzglyad" from 05.09.2012 reported that the draft programme of the Ministry of industry "development of the aviation industry for 2013-2025" planned order, the research and development of the airship with a payload up to 10 tons, with an approximate budget of 450 billion rubles(24). Second, 19.10.2012 a resident of "SKOLKOVO" the company "design Bureau ATLANT" developing a hybrid project aerostatic transport AIRCRAFT "ATLANT" with the original stated capacity of up to 16 t, with a further increase up to 250 tons
However, to date, according to the latest draft programme of the Ministry of industry and trade is not approved, the ATLAS can be financed by the SKOLKOVO Foundation to 75%, but data on the allocation of the grant has not yet been published (25). Foreign developments in operation is also not running.
The difficulty of implementing the concept of ATLA is characterized not only by complexity of the design, but also the problems of controllability, high weather dependent navigation and a lack of elaboration of ground support. There is no clear description of what is meant by infrastructure of aeronautic devices, what requirements should be placed on the Parking locations and maintenance conditions of loading and unloading operations, fuel - filling complexes, etc.
These and other problems, primarily the lack of sustainable funding, saying that understanding and consensus, both scientifically and in the aviation community about the prospects of the domestic aeronautic transportation no. And the looming economic instability raises the questions of whether the developments themselves and the effectiveness of investment in them.
At this stage of the discussion the logic of the operator, and requires the carrier to attempt the calculation of commercial and economic characteristics of the aircraft (aircraft) on the basis of the possible demand and volume of traffic. Returning to the analysis solution of the inverse problem, the estimation of possible efficiency of operation and will try to give an idea of the prospects of ATLA as a new type of vehicle.
In the beginning of the analysis let us point out the conditions and tools of calculation.
Freight aircraft are hard to predict and less stable than passenger, so satin and lace. we will consider primarily as a passenger transport. Repeat, cargo transportation, especially of bulky, require a separate study of market demand for them.
The methodology is based on a comparison of potential yield and amount of potential operating costs for the calendar year period with the definition of economic effect.
In recent publications, the average value of a pilot of an airship with a payload of 1-3T. was called in the district $ 3 million. (12). Considering mass production, we assume that the hybrid device will cost no more than 5-6 million. otherwise, its competitiveness because of the payback and the value of depreciation is dramatically reduced. The cost is comparable in speed vehicle: helicopter 3-11 million.(13), locomotive 2-3 million.(14), a comfortable bus or van, up to $ 1 million (15). If to consider that for future batches, add R & d expenditure, the cost of a series of devices becomes critical. Next, we explain this in the structure of relations of exploitation (16).
To answer the question about the demand for transport in the ATLA set the parameters of its operation according to the following criteria:
— the attractiveness of the route and the conditions of carriage shall allow to model demand, provides passenger load factor to 70% or more throughout the year (for ease of calculation we will choose the layout with 100 passenger seats);
— the route and level of tariffs should be comparable with terrestrial means of transport, because the speed of them comparable planes due to Overspeed while out of competition;
— reality program execution must be confirmed by the presence of the airfield, the possibility and ease of loading and unloading operations at the landing sites, etc.
For clarity, assume that one of the best options is the route Moscow-Mozhaysk/Borodino-Moscow, having a length of 100-120 km, which attracts with its location, the military-historical Museum-reserve "Borodino field", a vast country land, natural recreational areas, as well as the mobility of the local population to travel to Moscow. Host to a squadron of ATLA can be a former military airfield "Kubinka".
The landing real as in the city of Mozhaisk and Borodino, and in Western or North-Western administrative districts of Moscow in the area from Rublevskoe reservoirs along the floodplain of the Moscow river to metro Tushinskaya or Kuntsevskaya.
The cost of travel by local train to the Borodino and back in 2013 amounted to RUB 430, car 600-800 RUB. (18).
Fleet (SU) conditionally define 4 of ATLA. Departure depending on demand install on both sides of the route with an hour or less interval. At a speed of 100-120 km/h one working flight with a half-hour Parking will be 3 flight hours (flight hours). In one day the sun should do the 4 flights, taking into account the approach to and from the airport, the flying time will be 13 hours for the year 4550 L. h, no 2 weeks for maintenance.
The calculation will produce in a conventional calculation unit equal to one U.S. dollar at the rate of 32.5 rubles/USD. on 01.10.2013 (19). Competitive freight cost round-trip for passengers of moderate means, in our view, will be 20.e. or 650 RUB When loaded 70%, one working the flight will give 1450.e. per day 7000.e. per year (350 days) 2 450 thousand.e.
Assume that on holidays and weekends, the price may reach 40 in.e. when loading 90%. In this case, the income will increase to 2.84 million.e. Also, in the case of unilateral domination download from Moscow, to meet the demand, the beginning of the transportation is possible with one hand, a tariff increase to 30.e. what could bring the income up to 3.0 million.e. a year for one aircraft.
The calculation of costs is made on the basis of the data published in the literature (16), the structures of the costs in operating the airlines. From publications it follows that the average ratio of expenditure in the total has the following structure: jet fuel 30%, airport, air navigation and passenger service on Board– 20(10+5+5)%, maintenance (o & m) and maintenance VS -10%, depreciation or lease payments 10%, the content of the technical flight personnel and ground staff – 30 %, administrative costs, transportation sales (excluding representative offices) and other production -10%.
For ATLA minimize the cost of the passengers on Board and airport connecting the rest redistributed in the ratio:
— aviation fuel – 35%;
THEN, amortization and air navigation fees – 20%;
Fund wages (PAYROLL), the contents of the aircraft technical and command staff – 35%;
— administrative, selling, etc. production – 10%.
Thus, having the ability to determine wages (SN) flight technical personnel, the level of expenditure on PAYROLL, and time fuel consumption, engine costs for fuel for one of ATLA, it is possible to calculate the approximate level of performance, or a more modern operating expenses of the airline (the aeronautical company) of 4 or more aircraft for the year.
Initially, calculate the PAYROLL for flight and maintenance personnel and ground staff. All amounts for labor are provisional and may change depending on specific situations. Given the night shift without transport, the experience of airlines (20), set one VS four crew 2 pilot. Per month salary of the commander on the average of 5000.e. the second pilot is 4500. To maintain one sun required 2 technicians a pay of 3500.e. In addition to the 40 person flight crew for 4 of the aircraft, for coordinating the work required Manager (4000.e.) and one expert on registration and landing at the terminal points of the transport (2000.(e.), only 12 people. the Amount of SN for year 4 of the armed forces will be 2 544 thousand.e. or 636000.e. at 1 sun.
Assume that the Executive office of the company shall be not more than 20% of workers operate. To get all PAYROLL total annual expenditure on the salary increase on the required contributions, approximately 25-27%. The total amount for the year will be for the whole airline 3 847 thousand.e.
The amount received from the total cost of administrative staff (20%) after deduction of royalties will amount to 509 thousand.e. for a year or 42.4 per thousand.e. in a month, it is about 10 -12 people.
Dividing the PAYROLL of the company on 4 VS you get to ensure that one of the armed forces during the year to FOT all professionals, including the AUP, you will need 962 thousand.e. or about one million.
The second calculation will produce a costing for fuel. Given the level of income at 1 sun to 3 million.e. a year and 35% share of fuel in the structure of all costs, we are forced to adopt a limit on fuel costs of $ 1 million.e. in the year 1 BC. Dividing it into 4550 L. h we get the maximum amount of spending per hour on aircraft 220.e.
The cost of Avia-kerosene on 01.10.2013 in the Central region accounted for 33 to 35 000 rubles/ton, conventionally about 1000.e./tons of gasoline AI-95 – 39000 rubles/t or 1180.e./so, Devro – 32000 RUB/t or 970.e./t (21). Based on these prices, fuel consumption for one of ATLA should be 220 l aviation kerosene or 185 liters of gasoline or 215 litres. Videopreteen fuel efficiency can fit a 4 piston engines LOM PRAHA M-337С 250 HP, two RED A03 / V12 diesel power-500 HP (22), etc. these examples are given to illustrate, to calculate the capacity of the power plant to the Atlantic ocean with a payload of 10-16t and install the possibility of using this waste must be experts.
To the above mandatory expenses should include depreciation, depending on the initial value of the aircraft. At a cost of ATLA 5-6 million.e. they will be around 350-400 thousand.e. in a year when they will be assigned to 6th group of fixed assets with a useful life of 15 years as an aircraft (23). However, at the moment the airships without mechanical thrust belong to the 3rd group fixed assets with a term of up to 5 years of use, greatly increasing deductions for depreciation. From the fixed asset group and the cost of the devices depends largely on the profitability of their operation.
Costs and spare parts, air navigation services and ground support, transportation sales, advertising and marketing in our calculations should not be more than 350 thousand.e. 1 aircraft per year, or 1.4 million.e. on the company. Then profit will be achieved at the level of 5-10% of the costs, which is an acceptable value for the attractiveness and ROI. However, this is a fairly intensive program.
Within the calculated values it is possible to further modeling and justified the change of ratios. However, we note that calculations only give an initial view of the capabilities in exploitation of ATLA and do not claim the only fair.
The results of this study can draw some conclusions which help to deal with the prospects of a new kind of vehicle.
First and most importantly, properly designed commercial aerostatic transport aircraft has good prospects to occupy a niche in passenger and freight transport of mass use.
Second. The calculations showed that the significant advantages of aeronautic transport over other types has not, except in the area of free land. His slow-moving does not allow you to compete with the aircraft, because it needs to be more effective in their 8-9 times that costs him 8 flight hours to overcome 900 km was less than the cost of a plane that spends this distance one hour. Land transport are less weather dependent and also, overcoming the distance with a speed of 100-150 km/HR, you lose in shipping a matter of an hour or two. Therefore, in order to win the competition, it is necessary from the beginning of the development of ATLA to lay in it solutions that increase operational efficiency and, primarily, fuel and price.
Third. Projects that restrict the use of the ATLA special cargo, patrolling, military tasks, do not allow to develop the industrial production of devices to volumes of self-sufficiency, the more coverage of R & d investment. And efficiency from minimizing ground infrastructure can be determined only when used on individual major projects or across the state, making it difficult to obtain direct investment, and it demonstrates the majority of foreign developments. You need to go from design of single machines to the programs of passenger and freight transport, understandable and attractive to private business and government agencies.
In conclusion, we note that the presentation of the giant projects are not always necessary and justified, medium and small vehicles are not less, and in some cases much greater potential.
About the enormous potential of the aeronautical assets in the modern economy and their great efficiency, the author will be outlined in the following article.
Links to sources:
1. http://lenta.ru/articles/2010/03/04/saucer/2. http://www.rg.ru/2012/07/04/reg-pfo/otmena.html3. The cancellation of the LEMV http://www.dailytechinfo.org/military/4563-otmenena-programma-po - razrabotke-voennyh-dirizhabley-lemv.html4. Hindenburg http://omop.su/article/11/518543.html5. ATLANT-Auguri loading Capac.250 t http://www.aviaport.ru/news/2013/08/09/261240.html http://rosaerosystems.ru/atlant/ NTV 25.09.2013 http://skolkovo-ru.livejournal.com/874755.html6. Investment in 1,000 t lifting capacity and 190 t in DTS-D1 investinnoprom.ru/gruzovye-dirizhabli.php7. "The logistics of oversized and heavy cargoes: Russia, Baltic countries and CIS http://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2011/11/22/225362.html8. http://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2013/07/17/259459.html Conf. in Анкоридже9. http://www.ato.ru/content/novyy-tip-letatelnogo-apparata-poluchaet-kommercheskoe-primenenie Aviation Capital Enterprises.10. http://www.zeppelinflug.de/zeppelin-nt-main-en.html Zeppelin NT11. http://www.militaryparitet.com/ttp/data/ic_ttp/3422/ a British company Hybrid Air Vehicles has created a hybrid airship Hybrid Air Vehicles 304.12. http://www.aviaport.ru/news/2013/08/09/261240.html13 http://www.neftegaz-leasing.ru/products/leasing_of_aircraft/conjuncture_russian_helicopter_market/14. http://www.npktrans.ru/Doc.aspx?docId=4247&CatalogId=65315. http://avtofura.ru/16. http://www.aex.ru/docs/2/2011/4/13/1323/ Structure cost авиабилетаrudocs.exdat.com/docs/index-418091.html?page=6annualreport2012.aeroflot.ru/financial-report/costs-of-operational-activity/17. http://www.myhelicopter.ru/forum/sales/247/www.neftegaz-leasing.ru/products/leasing_of_aircraft/conjuncture_russian_helicopter_market/18. Fares al. to Borodino http://rasp.yandex.ru/19. The ruble http://quote.rbc.ru/cur/20. Crews for 1 aircraft http://www.aviaport.ru/news/2011/04/06/213448.html21. The cost of fuel http://mg-oil.ru/nefteprodukty/aviacionnyj-kerosin-ts-1/22. Engines http://engine.aviaport.ru/issues/10/page30.htmlrt-aero.ru/index.php/dvigatel23. Classification of fixed assets http://base.garant.ru/12125271/24. http://vz.ru/economy/2012/9/5/596603.html25. http://vpk-news.ru/news/13549Александр Alduchov