From the Treasury of the Order "Ordo Basileus" .. ADAPTATION TO UNCERTAINTIES

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The collision with randomness and uncertainty is human experience shocking and traumatic. The natural reaction to this experience - triggering mental protection, especially their negation.

And while science is making efforts to study the patterns of occurrence of order out of chaos and transformation of the order back to the chaos (probability theory, chaos theory, synergy), people illusions ability to control their lives and to protect themselves from accidents. As a result, instead of going beyond and research new horizons, he imprisons himself in the cramped walls of monotony and imaginary reliability.

As an option, it delegates the supposed control of your life to someone or something else - the deity, fate, the government, etc. There is also a special category of romantics who dream to become all-powerful entities, controlling not only their own lives but also the world.

When the illusions and fantasies descend, comes the realization that the real work is the ability to comprehend the processes in the future, to see the possible ramifications at bifurcation points (points where further development can go to any of a variety of scenarios), make quick decisions in conditions of uncertainty and effectively in a space accident.

Problems of adaptation to the randomness and uncertainty often arise as a result of prejudice, ignorance of the objective laws of random events, the inability to predict and unprepared for abreaction unpredictable situations.

Among the common cognitive errors, leading to maladaptation:

 - Lack of understanding of the phenomenon of randomness and related mathematical laws (which includes so-called "player error" - for example, when tossing a coin repeatedly falls eagle player increases confidence in a higher probability of tails, whereas in reality the outcome of tosses are not interconnected and probably always remain the same);

 - Ignoring the phenomenon of regression to the mean (after extraordinary results is more likely the result closer to the statistical average);

 - Fundamental attribution error (for example: "I was late due to unforeseen circumstances, and my friend was late because nepunktualen"; "I succeeded because worked hard, and my neighbor was successful because he was lucky" - that is, It ignored the possible impact of the case on their own successes and failures of others);

 - Retrospective distortion (filtering of past events through a posteriori knowledge, when they seem to be more predictable than they were in reality);

 - Representativeness bias, availability, reliability, source etc .;

 - Over-confidence, and others.

After comprehending the essence of the situation naturally raises the question of how to gain the ability to focus and articulate the world of uncertainty. Perhaps the variety of approaches, and each should be to choose the one that would provide a comprehensive acting out. We can only in the most general terms, describe three steps to solving this problem.

1. Opening and critical analysis of their own prejudices. This should be approached carefully, finding examples of situations in which you have been ineffective decisions based on prejudice, and observing the process of making such decisions you and other people in real time.

2. Intensification of existential feelings of uncertainty, chance and can not be controlled. It is best to abandon the critical judgments and to entrust some aspects of his life there. It is convenient to use a lot, that can be used to make decisions on a variety of issues - on how to diversify their evenings to study the problem points in their behavior.

Another option, or transition exercise between the second and the third step may be guessing the outcomes of random events, such as drawing cards from a deck or a coin toss.

3. Work directly with decision-making under uncertainty. This step should be to consciously enter into a situation with many possible ramifications, especially in those where there is no single logical decisions, and the responsibility for the decisions made with the case of the shift. Here a judgment should work as quickly as possible and based on open-minded vision, intuition and experience "feel" accident.

The randomness and uncertainty - critical factors faced by the subject in the process of its formation and development. Ignoring this fact has obvious consequences, whereas an adequate study opens up a vast expanse of possibilities. Just stepping toward the unknown, you can open a new and reap the true gifts of Fortune!

Roman Cherevko

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