< Fedor Krasheninnikov
Most of us are far from the military affairs of people living legacy and romanticized view of war.
Model war, opened a series of military conflicts of our time - the Gulf War in 1991. Here is a brief and clear about it in Wikipedia -http: //ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyna_v_Persidskom_zalive. Read it, those who do not remember the situation. Pay special attention to the list of members of the coalition. The history of Iraq is also important because Hussein, apparently, was convinced that the world is too dependent on Iraqi oil and he get away with it. This is the answer to those who already started arrogant smile and talk about "our gas».
Then, in the early '90s, and was born the system to solve the conflict, and it has since been used repeatedly.
So we can assume that in regard to Russia will be organized something like that - if it's over now applying the brake.
Let's try to imagine how the "Second Crimean War" may look at the worst the situation around the Crimea.
I have to say that a nuclear conflict, I do not feel real, it is not beneficial to anyone - and especially Russia. One against all other nuclear powers - is a direct path into a radioactive desert.
Firstly, in the present conditions themselves military conflicts take little time, compared with a long preparation thereto. It is necessary to consider all those who think that everything will start a few days ago and will end quickly. In 1990-1991, from Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait to the expulsion of Iraqi forces from it took half a year.
Secondly, the civilian population suffers the most is not from war, but from the economic sanctions, which are introduced at an early stage and, as was the case with Iraq and Serbia, canceled only after the change of power in the country. In the situation of Iraqi process took 12 years and what it was all over for Iraka- you yourself know, there is no longer a country. That is, the end of hostilities in the outbreak of the conflict (in our case - this is, unfortunately, a blooming spring and summer Crimea) does not automatically mean the end of trouble for the Russian population.
Important note for those who are convinced that "no one will be due to the Ukraine to look for trouble." The point is not only in Ukraine, no matter what the propagandists. In fact, the whole system into question of international treaties in the modern world, the whole system of collective security, in which the sovereignty and territorial integrity of some countries is guaranteed by others. After all, if Russia can take and do not care about the treaty, which are the guarantors of the United States and Britain and her for it will be nothing, then the same can be done and someone else. Are the US and NATO to ensure that they stop believing and stop being afraid? I doubt that is the foundation of the modern world and its economy, even if someone does not like it.
So, how can all grow in the current situation
First stage: preliminary consultations - it goes now. Everyone is trying to dissuade Putin's adventures along the way in preparation for other options. At this stage, interested parties should finally admit to ourselves and to each other that the world situation is not resolved. Once it is finished, will
Second stage: the isolation of the aggressor. Russia has publicly declared the aggressor begins the formation of the coalition forces assistance to Ukraine. This process can take many months - but where someone hurry? Time is working against the aggressor, especially given the economic factor. In the first stage simply strengthen border of Ukraine and Crimea occupied block.
Third stage: the sanctions regime. This is the most unpleasant for us ordinary citizens. The arrest of accounts and business bosses of the Russian Federation - it is certainly nice, but exclusively in moral terms. The imposition of sanctions is always hurts ordinary people, and most of all - the poorest. It is now, in a burst of chauvinistic, it is easy to argue that "dispense". Anyone who is even slightly aware of the structure of the Russian economy, well ponimaaet: economic sanctions hurl it in a few months. There will be no banks, no goods or services. From service and Master cards Visa, ending with internet (which shut off our own heads). Medication, habitual food, spare parts for appliances - this is not a complete list. All this will destroy a lot of businesses in Russia, leaving the work of our fellow citizens. War - it is a cynical business and whatever was said that the sanctions are not against the people, it's all a lie or half-truth. The true goal of any sanctions - to make life unbearable citizens, that sooner or later cause hatred of his own power, even in the most desperate chauvinists. The main factor here - time. I have described the phenomenon will not come at once, dying economy from sanctions will take several months or even years - but then again, what's the hurry and to whom? On the contrary, move on to the stage of active action makes sense at a time when most people already feel the charm of all situations. It is possible that there will be a subversive activity and - in war as in war. So that mobile communication and in general all kinds of communications in Russia can be destroyed or very badly to work (communication can cut off our, knocking enemies).
Fourth stage: power. It took half a year, declared the aggressor Russia live in the sanctions regime and clock chauvinist hysteria. Economy died in stores small items, many shops and restaurant are closed, inflation, restrictions or a ban on the circulation of currency. Many banks simply collapse together with the contributions. Also - unemployment and informational isolation. All this time around Crimea is the concentration of the armed forces. What's going on inside - referendums, new governments and other miracles - it's not interesting since the second stage. Crimea is considered occupied territory. Finally, in "X hour" takes the very thing that so coveted chauvinists: War with the shooting. But, of course, it's not like in the movies - it's not going to attack systems caricature "Pindos" and "Bandera", which cut the cabbage miracle heroes. See how the operation was in Kuwait and Serbia: the maximum damage was done drones, missiles and all the rest. First soldiers "defenders" of the Crimea will see only after the military infrastructure of the peninsula (and possibly the surrounding areas of the Russian Federation, which houses military obektv) will suffer the maximum damage and coming forces that threaten small (again, recall meaningful promises fans Hussein and Milosevic - drones is garbage, we have the same tanks and millions of the world's best infantry, only sun'te! As we remember, the enemies still snooping, there was already no tanks, no organized infantry, read details themselves. The Serbs also have long boasted that Berdan rifle shot down from a Stealth - only that it gave them? Where is Milosevic and Kosovo? That's it). Perhaps at this stage and there will be a certain heroism and some meaningless feats, but one end: Crimea or so and nache Strip by Russian troops and all those who have not actively cooperated with them - this is war, it must be understood. This is not good, but that practice.
Fifth stage: after the military catastrophe inevitable suffering of ordinary citizens Russia will not end. Then broken off, and those who will be waiting for the arrival of the liberators: no force mezhdunarozhnye not pass the border of Russia - in fact it will only go to the Crimea. When you have finished with it (and incidentally the most destroying all military and economic infrastructure, which is only possible on the whole territory of Russia), the acute phase of the conflict is over and everything will return to the third stage. And it will last as long as the Russian Federation or does not recognize his defeat and the Ukrainian border, or if our Fuhrer will persist as long as he will remain in power. Again, Iraq lived in a nightmare of 12 years and with the fall of the Hussein regime was gone and Iraq.
That's such a sad story. I understand that chauvinists any arguments did not repent and addresses mainly to normal people: nothing good waits for no one, sanctions will be bad for everyone, and to vent anger will be upon us all.
I hope very much that still do without sanctions and war.
Note about China, and that the topic is often raised.
Incidentally, China has a very tough stance on separatists - because they have to deal with them in Tibet and Xinjiang, and consider Taiwan in China, captured the separatists. And why would they suddenly encourage separatism? China, by the way, does not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
This card for those who somehow believe in the unity of the Russian-Chinese interests. Yes, in any place, they are not one of these interests.
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