A long ice age will begin in 2014

One of the leading Russian astrophysicists Khabibullo Abdusamatov manages the project "Astrometry", which is the study of the behavior of the Sun affecting the climate on our planet, says Corrado Front in the material published in the newspaper Legno storto.

"Head of sector for space research of the Sun the Main (Pulkovo) Observatory of RAS, doctor of physico-mathematical Sciences Khabibullo Abdusamatov says: 2014 on Earth will begin the next two centuries of the cooling cycle", — writes the edition.

"Professor Abdusamatov manages the project "Astrometry", which is the study of the behavior of the Sun. There are several cycles of the behavior of the Sun: 11-year-old, characterized by the appearance of different numbers of sunspots. Currently nearing completion of the 24-th cycle characterized by a sharp decrease of solar activity. In addition, there is a 200-year period: in 1990 it is nearing the end. Abdusamatov connects these cycles with the diameter of the Sun.

The size of the diameter depends on TSI, total solar radiation determines the temperature on Earth. The frequency of these changes allows us to speak about the ice ages in the past and predict future ice ages. According to Professor Abdusamatova, we are at the beginning of the glacial period, the maximum of which will be in 2055. This is the year the ardent supporters of the theory of global warming is expected that the Earth will boil over, if we do not implement their proposed "green economy," writes the author.

"Changes on Earth occur with some delay compared with changes of solar activity because of the thermal inertia of the Earth, which greatly contribute to the oceans. "Thanks to the continuous observations will be possible to make long-term forecasts on the scale of future climate change. Since the beginning of 90-ies we observed a 200-year reduction in solar radiation", — said the Professor. In the current situation, the Earth has absorbed the maximum amount of heat, and it can be compared with a pan and removed from heat. And now it will only be cooled, in other words, "from this moment on, the heat balance will be negative, and this will lead to lower temperatures while the low will be in 2055," predicts scientist.

"So, we expect in the twenty-first century little ice age will be the fifth after periods, named Wolf (XIII century), Sporer (XV century), Maunder (XVII century) and Dalton (XIX century). But the definition of "small" should not lead us to underestimate the complexity of the situation: the consequences can be extremely serious, as evidenced by previous experience, marked by crop failures, epidemics, mortality, led to a reduction in numbers of some people, mass movements," writes the author.



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