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Scientists are predicting a new Little Ice Age in the 2030s
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new physical model of the Sun by astrophysicists from the University of Northumbria a very good description of the behavior of light, including the famous 11-year-old the cycles of solar activity. One of the predictions of this model says that in 2030-ies should expect record-low activity of our star, which could lead to a new "Little Ice Age».
Observations of the Sun are people from ancient times. The beginning of scientific research in the modern sense can be considered as 1610, when the era of instrumental studies of the sun. The great Galileo invented the telescope, not only, but also its special kind to observe the sun - helioscope. This allowed him and his other colleagues detail the sunspots. That Galileo first among researchers found a part of the solar spots structure.
From 1645 to 1715 there were long-term decrease in the number of sunspots. This period was called the "Maunder Minimum" after the English astronomer Edward Walter Maunder, who discovered this phenomenon when studying archives observations of the sun. By the way, it is amusing that the period of decreasing solar activity rather precisely coincided with the reign of "Sun King" Louis XIV (1643-1715).
According to estimates Maunder, during this period the number of sunspots fell a thousand times. Later, the fall in solar activity was confirmed by analysis of carbon-14, as well as some other isotopes such as beryllium-10 in glaciers and trees. This analysis revealed 18 minima of solar activity over the past 8,000 years, including at least Shpёrera (1450-1540) and a minimum of Dalton (1790-1820).
Fluctuations in solar activity / Wikipedia i>
Maunder Minimum coincides with the coldest phase of global cooling, celebrated during the XIV-XIX centuries (the same Little Ice Age).
Of course, not all scientists are convinced that it is the minimum solar activity was the cause of this long cold spell. Among other possible causes of the researchers call:
increased activity of volcanic ash which eclipsed the sunlight; a slowdown or even a complete stop thermohaline circulation of ocean waters slowing of the Gulf Stream around 1300, which was the beginning of large-scale climate changes cessation of mass burning of forests by Native Americans, who massively went extinct as a result of infection by the Europeans after the discovery of America by Columbus
And yet, one can not deny the enormous influence of the Sun on the Earth's life processes.
Astrophysicists, led by Professor Valentina Zharkova were able to build a model of the behavior of the Sun, rather accurately predict the cycles of its activity. For several hundred years we know that the periods of solar activity and, accordingly, the number of spots on it have a cyclical nature. The length of the cycle is on average 11 years old, although it can vary from 7 to 17 years.
Physicists have long suspected that this is related to the cyclical effects of the dynamo, which are due to convective processes inside stars. Convection can be explained if we consider the motion of one relative to the other layers. Zharkov companions came up to consider the motion of two independent layers, one of which is closer to the surface of the star. As a result, their model was to give very accurate predictions.
"We found that the components of the magnetic waves appear in pairs, and come from two different layers inside the sun. Both layers have a period of about 11 years, but together they are a little different - explained Zharkov. - During the cycle wave range between the northern and southern hemispheres of the sun. Combining the calculated data and comparing them with the real observations, we found that our predictions coincide with reality with a precision of 97%. " These observations were obtained from the Observatory. Wilcox, owned by Stanford University.
Cycle of solar activity made to attribute the serial numbers from the selected conditional first cycle, the maximum of which was in 1761. According to the predictions of the model, in the 25th cycle, the peak of which will be in 2022, starts out of sync the two layers of the sun. And in the 26 th cycle, in 2030-2040, respectively, as explained by Zharkov, magnetic waves in general will be in opposition and will offset each other. As a result, solar activity has declined by as much as 60%.
The theory of the Little Ice Age - the strongest argument of opponents of the concept of global warming and the greenhouse effect caused by man. They argue that the current warming - it's a natural way out of the Little Ice Age XIV-XIX centuries, which may lead to the recovery of higher temperatures. According to them, at the beginning of the XXI century the average temperature regularly exceeds the "climate normal" just because "climate normals" were written under the standards for cold XIX century.
We are with you remains to wait only 15 years, and then we will be able to on their own experience to know which of the scientists is right. Who knows, maybe then we urgently need technology to emissions into the atmosphere more greenhouse gases, to somehow keep warm.
Source: geektimes.ru/post/253410/
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