400 million electric vehicles will make unnecessary 14 million barrels of oil Bashny.Net

The recent presentation of the Tesla Model 3, after which the demand for the electric car took off to the skies, has proven: the question is not whether there will a massive electrification of transportation world, the question is when it will happen

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Experts predict an annual 50 percent increase in sales of electric vehicles in the period to 2020, after which the first demand to slow to 30% per year (until 2030), and then - up to 15% per year (2040 th). However, it will increase the number of electric vehicles on the roads all over the world from the current 1 million to 8 million in 2020 to 105 million by 2030, and up to 424 million - by 2040 th

. Accordingly, it is easy to calculate what happens when one of these electric vehicles will replace one car with a gasoline or diesel engine. Demand for oil will drop to 0, 3 million barrels per day in 2020, on 3, 4 million - by 2030, and by 13, 8 million barrels per day - by 2040 th

. The fact that electrification of transport will not increase the consumption of electricity is so much to heat thermal power plants burned all the barrels that do not burn in the engines of conventional machines. After all, electric cars use about a third of the energy that produce internal combustion engines.

In addition, keep in mind that oil accounts for only 5% of global power generation. With the help of coal in the world produces about 39% of electricity, natural gas for 22%, hydro - 17%, nuclear power plants - 11%, and renewables - 7%

. And coal will soon begin to take their positions because of the firm intention of the majority of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But this does not mean that coal will be displaced from power generation by oil. Rusty starts the share of natural gas and, to a large extent due to LNG.

Experts believe that electrification of transport will lead to increased demand for liquefied natural gas on the 5, 6 million metric tons a year by 2020, 47, 2 million - by 2030, and by 191, 5 million tons per year - by 2040 year. So hundreds of millions of electric cars could become real saviors of the LNG market, which is currently experiencing serious difficulties due to global oversupply.

To a lesser extent the electrification of transportation will help the sector of renewable energy, because it is not the cheapest way to produce electricity, and it is certainly not cheaper than gas generation. And the oil industry, most likely, do not get nothing but losses from electric sales growth. And she should take this into account in its calculations for the long term.

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