The Russian budget may be short of taxes for the black gold due to mass transfer West to bisbenzene car for years 2025-2035. The energy center business school SKOLKOVO predicts drop in oil demand in the world market to 2035 to the level of 2012, and the growth of gas demand. These findings made the authors of the study "Electric car: a toy for the rich or revolution in oil consumption?".
According to analysts "SKOLKOVO", in the most optimistic scenario of growth in global demand for electric vehicles resulting from more careful attention to the ecology and growth of prices for hydrocarbons, oil demand by 2035 will fall to 74.5 million barrels per day, 27.7 million barrels less than the forecast of the International energy Agency (101.4 million barrels).
This will increase gas consumption that will be needed for the development of new electrical power and oil as an alternative gas engine fuel for transport. In fact, world oil consumption in this case will fall to 1.35 billion tons of oil per year.
The Russian domestic market, these trends will affect to a lesser extent, however they can not be ignored, because the revenues from oil and gas exports in the country's Treasury today make up 60% of budget revenues.
As noted in the study, the market for electric vehicles could grow far more rapidly than expected current conservative estimates of oil and consulting companies. Amid serious concerns of energy security in Europe, as well as the increasing diversity of models of electric cars and reduce the cost of batteries for them, the production of electric vehicles in the world increased c 240 thousand in 2013 to 400 million in 2014.
The international energy Agency jointly with the Electric Vehicle Initiative and the Clean Energy Ministerial as the most aggressive scenario in 2020, predicts the total fleet of electric vehicles in the world 24 million units (2.2% of the market) and sales of new electric vehicles 7.2 million units (8.0 percent of world sales). In the world of 2013 there were 900 million vehicles, the vast majority with traditional internal combustion engines.
In the three scenarios considered the power center "SKOLKOVO" for the development of the electric car market in the world consumption of oil will either fall by 2035 to the level of 2012 (after a slight increase until 2030), or will start to fall much earlier. In the most optimistic market scenario, electric cars Electric cars the oil consumption is reduced from 87.4 million barrels./day. in 2012 to 74.2 million barrels./day. in the year 2035.
This will happen provided the increase in the share of electric cars in the global sales of new cars up to 90% in 2025 and maintaining this share by 2035.
The "Baseline" scenario, the increase in the share of electric cars in the global sales volume of new cars will be 50% by 2031.
And by 2035 in the General Park of cars number of cars running on electric accumulators or from the outlet will reach 40%. In this case, the demand for oil may fall to 82.7 million barrels./day.
In the least optimistic scenario "Hybrids" — the uniform use of electric cars and petrol cars the demand for oil will grow by 2030 to 90 million bbl./day. together with the overall growth of the fleet. Then by 2035, it will drop to the level of 2012. The script "Hybrids" based on the forecast of structure of sales of new cars offered by the company BP.
The total share of full and mild hybrids in sales by 2035, will reach two-thirds of sales (67%), the share of electric vehicles will account for just 6.4%. In such a scenario, by 2035 the General Park of cars the number of electric vehicles will be only 4.7 percent.
The share of vehicles running on gas fuel also multiples will increase compared to 2013. For the needs of electric cars will need to build additional power of electrogeneration that will lead to growth in gas consumption in the world at 0.8-1.12 trillion cubic meters, depending on the scenario.
According to experts of the energy centre SKOLKOVO, such a scenario is unreasonably ignored, and oil and gas companies, and the government of the Russian Federation in the development of the Energy strategy.
— Potential lack of growth in oil demand may lead to a severe drop in fuel prices that may adversely affect the economic attractiveness of high-cost projects, such as the development of the Arctic shelf. While this may increase the need for new projects in gas production and alternative energy sources, — said the Director of energy center SKOLKOVO Grigory Vygon.
According to the head of "Research", energy center SKOLKOVO Elena Savchik, in Russia, the demand for electric vehicles is far behind the world.
— Market electric vehicles in Russia. Last year, the country sold a total of 290 electric cars. Officially the total number of electric cars in Russia at the end of 2013 did not exceed 1 thousand units (compared to 170 518 in the USA) built a small number of charging stations.
Even after the zeroing of import duties on electric cars the difference in cost of the electric vehicle and the vehicle c by an internal combustion engine is too high to attract Russian buyers.
For the development of electric vehicles in our country requires active support.
Today Moscow and the Moscow region is the only promising region for electric vehicles. Here are concentrated charging stations, and, according to polls, more than half of Muscovites are ready to consider the electric car as a potential purchase.
The average modern electric car is able to travel without recharging up to 150 km, sums up the expert.