Will robots cause global unemployment? Bashny.Net

Once the idea of ​​robots, firmly entered our lives, breathtaking and promised unimaginable accomplishments. "Forgotten chores, stopped running." We dreamland brave new world in which robots are faithful servants, and people enjoying the fruits of his scientific achievements.

However, in recent years, the increasing introduction of robots makes a sign to rethink this phenomenon. "Inject robots, not people." And this is just what the root of the imminent large-scale drama. And man what? Do not inject, and - not earning. Increasingly, there are voices that the development and reduce the cost of robots will soon make unprofitable work of people in many professions. And make no mistake, businessmen make a clear choice in favor of the robots. It means that many people will have to find a new job, to retrain for other professions, falling well-being, social tensions, rising crime and the list goes on.

Are we to expect a bleak future robotic? Let's discuss.

Previously, people had to hunt to survive, or to engage in gathering. But people were too lazy and smart enough, why they invent tools that facilitate their work. The development of tools has allowed to release the vast majority of the population from direct food production: in 1790 it employed about 90% of the population, in 1900 - about 35% in 2010 - 2-3%. At the same time, we still live in a grocery abundance, and about 30% of produced food does not reach the shelves, rot and deteriorate.

All this is true not only for agriculture. For thousands of years we have created all the new tools to facilitate any kind of physical labor. Tools and machinery - is our mechanical muscles stronger, reliable and tireless. The use of these tools has allowed billions of people to specialize in something one, that was the key to economic growth and quality of life. Some specialize in programming and engineering, creating artificial intelligence. And as a "mechanical muscles" did less physical labor demand, and artificial intelligence to make less popular work of man. That is the work of our brain.

We stand on the threshold of a new economic revolution. And if you think that this had once been, you're wrong. This time it's different.

Physical labor h4> When it comes to automation, many represents a huge, custom-made, expensive, efficient, but blind to the world around robots designed to perform only certain of one or more transactions.

However, this is an outdated approach to automation. A few years ago there was a robot Baxter, capable of self-learning activities, which previously did not commit.

Unlike specialized industrial robots, requiring for its operation of specially trained operators, technicians and cash injections, Baxter can simply observe the actions of man, and then repeat them. And its value is less than the average salary of a worker in a developed country. Baxter was one of the first general-purpose robots.

There comes to mind a comparison with computers. At the beginning of their history, they also were large, expensive and highly specialized. But once appeared compact mainframe computers, and soon they were able to do anything. And thanks to the applicability in almost all spheres of life and industries, computers do not cease to increase its power and cheaper.

Now Baxter can be compared to a general purpose computer of the 1980s. Even despite its slowness, the hour of his work costs a penny thanks to low energy consumption. While the biological competitors have to pay the minimum wage. And even when 10 times slower, it is more beneficial if the cost of its operation will be 100 times lower than that of a worker. However, he is quite able to carry out many actions that do not require high skills.

Already have an example of how robots are much less advanced than Baxter, can take the place of the person. Some new supermarkets in the US have used robotic cash.

Another illustration: Now under threat are hundreds of thousands of baristas worldwide. Of course, expertly prepared coffee man can not be compared with the selected on-screen coffee machine. But most people do not need gourmet delights.

Most recent example of the onset of robots and much more difficult profession than making coffee: aviation. No, it's not about the autopilot system, and about the full self-control aircraft, from takeoff and landing ending. Meet - PIBOT, it has recently demonstrated at the International Conference Intelligent Robots and Systems. This is a slightly modified very cheap robot Bioloid Premium is powered by Robotics.

As you'll see from the video below, it is capable of without the help of a man, with mechanical controls to perform takeoff and flight route in the simulator. Landing procedure still requires human help, but developers argue that they are almost close to solving the problem of self-boarding. The robot is guided in the image on the screen using the contour recognition algorithm. PIBOT authors claim that it is already possible satisfy a number of requirements prescribed in lёtnom guidance from the US Federal Aviation Administration.



In the near future, the developers promise to publish the video of the robot controls are no longer virtual aircraft and radio-controlled models.

Luddism h4> At the beginning of 1900 began active development of vehicles. From the point of view of the horses, it was a great trend: do not need to languish in the hard work in the fields are exhausted when delivering mail to bear riders into combat. Today's proponents of the widespread introduction of robots claim that people liberated mechanical helpers from many activities, will gain a new profession, have not even started. But the example of the same horses we know that it is self-deception. Are there many horses found new, unprecedented applications in the past 100 years?

There is no economic law, according to which new technologies create more new problems for the horses. It is not even to say aloud a bit awkward. But it is necessary to replace the "horses" to "people" as the phrase reason for the majority ceases to be absurd. But this is only the denial of the obvious. As cars at one time made unnecessary horses and robots will make people redundant. Not immediately and not everywhere, but in a fairly large scale and rather quickly. And if we do not prepare, it will result in huge problems. Maybe you just think that something really your profession robots do not replace. But technologies are becoming better, cheaper and more productive. A striking example is all the same cars.

Cars h4>
 Self-cars from fiction has turned into reality. Not already quite capable on their own to navigate on the roads. The question no longer is whether they will replace conventional cars, and how soon it will happen. And for that they need not go perfectly, just to be better than living drivers. In the United States alone die every year in car accidents around 40 000 people in Russia about 15,000 . Self-cars do not fall asleep do not move, do not write an SMS, do not drive drunk and do not have a driver's brainlessness attacks. In fact, they are already better than us.

Actually, calling them "car" is wrong. It is as if the first cars were called mechanical horses. Perhaps in the future there will be any new term and the word "car" will be used only in relation to the vehicle managed by man. Now imagine how many drivers and trucks municipal lose their jobs due to the introduction of self-cars?

Hope for unity and union protection is not necessary. History knows many examples where representatives of various professions in every way obstructed the automation of their work. But technology always wins, because it was cost-effective. For example, for the same wage fund transportation companies can reach a third of the total costs. At the same time truck drivers have every few hours to take a break to rest, and the time and money. Except for periodic crashes. A low self-car accident instantly attract to their side the insurance companies.

So robotic machines probably will be the first example of how robots are changing society. And we can feel it quite soon, within the next ten years. Elon Musk, founder of Tesla Motors and SpaceX, said that in the period of 6 years will be able to submit a fully autonomous electric.

Why all goes h4> For example, Baxter and guglomobilya can think about how new technologies are always destroy most low-skilled occupations. People have to be retrained, raise their level. And we have come to expect big problems of forced re-education of hundreds of millions of people have lost their jobs. "White-collar" also can not consider himself safe today. The work of many office workers around the world today can carry out special programs. But by software robots much faster and cheaper full of robots. Also, one robot can replace several workers, and the return is higher than the automation of low-skilled jobs. This further increases the potential attractiveness of the bots.

And there will be particularly useful for self-learning ability. Why make a very intelligent robot specialized for each profession, if you can make a learning program? For millions of people would be black the day will create a program that you do not have to learn to do something, and that is enough to show that something done right, and she figured out how to come.

Botha to replace the office staff h4> By the way, the securities market has long been dominated by specialized software. In most cases, it boots that are "learned" to trade on the exchange with others, too samoobuchivshimisya, bots. These programs do not comply with the orders of the people, they make decisions to buy or sell shares.

Already there are bots who write texts for the media. Most often, for newspapers. There are companies that specialize in training bots journalists. For example, Automated Insights, which helps the Associated Press to introduce an automatic service that can generate up to 4,400 Profit-party companies in the quarter. According to the AP, people-journalists during this time created only about 300 articles. This sounded good purpose implementation boat service - to release the journalist will be able to concentrate on the reports, analytics, identifying trends and seeking exclusive stories.

"Working with papers, decision-making, writing texts" - many professions fall under these definitions. And specialized bots in the future be able to replace humans in most of these professions. For example, lawyers. Most of their work is reduced to the preparation of documents and find specific information in piles of papers, such as strange or suspicious transactions matches. All this is a real job for the bot. And the search for data in many companies have already entrusted to the bots. They scan millions of e-mails, notes, and documents in a matter of hours rather than weeks. Their advantage is not only in speed, but also in accuracy.

That is far more complex example. The program of artificial intelligence IBM Watson had to cope with the challenges of the diagnosis on the level of medical students. As in the case of self-administered cars, robots need not be perfect doctors enough to be in the best people. The share of erroneous diagnoses in modern medicine is still appalling. In addition, the robots will never forget and do not mess with drugs, and their mutual influence. Medical robots will be able to share each other's experiences and knowledge, to keep abreast of the latest research. They will be able to continuously collect and analyze health statistics of all his patients. Of course, the robots can not replace all doctors, but a number of specializations - completely.

Botha to replace creative people h4> If your work is connected with the work, then surely you consider yourself a "invulnerable" for robots. Perhaps this is only partly true.

The creative process many compare to something magical, but it's still wrong. The brain - a very complex structure, perhaps the most difficult in the universe. But that does not stop us from trying to simulate it.

And if we manage to do this, we create a tool that will make it unnecessary to our ability to think. He argued that laid robots boring routine, mankind together will be engaged in creative work in all its manifestations. Alas, but hundreds of millions of artists, sculptors, photographers, writers, poets, actors, directors, singers, musicians and other creative people are not wanted. Their actual number is already very low. Their income depends on popularity and demand, so the number of people in any society are always slightly. There is an economy based on drawing or writing.

Returning to the bots - they are already writing music. Boat named Emily Howel per day can generate a huge amount of content. And when blind testing few people can distinguish "it" works written by man. Naturally, this is not out of the question about the full creativity of artificial intelligence. The task of creating a mechanical mind still seems excessive. However, the above example already shows that the idea of ​​algorithms to collect from some basic components of the finished "product", quite viable. It is possible that in the medium term there will be a program that can create a picture quite tolerable. The first steps in this direction have already been made:

// player.vimeo.com/video/101281188 video>

Although the literature in the foreseeable future, robots are unlikely to reach any heights. Despite advances in the creation of newspaper articles, for informed and valuable in terms of art of folding words into sentences need a full-fledged intelligence, even artificial. At least it hopefully.

Alas, in some areas in the future we will be a force to automate the creative process. Let no one on the level of a masterpiece, but in the framework of mass pop culture - quite.

Psychological aspects h4> It is unlikely that the introduction of robots will be imposed solely by corporations. A recent study by experts at MIT gave surprising results: people-workers often prefer that their immediate superiors were ... robots, not people. As noted by researchers under the supervision of experimental robots work efficiently and more expressed satisfaction.



It's hard to say why people chose to obey the machine. About the underlying mechanisms better tell psychologists, but it can be assumed for several reasons. For example, it is a kind of rest from need to maintain social contacts. After all, every day we are confronted with dozens or hundreds of people, and we somehow have to communicate with them, from peresёkshihsya views in the subway to the close cooperation on business issues. Not surprisingly, so popular for many people, the desire to go on a vacation where found as little fellow biological species. The second reason why the robot is "better" man is no need to establish personal relationships, trying to please the boss, endure his unpleasant attitude. Although MIT experts believe that the reason for higher efficiency ligament "robot man" is the ability to quickly develop robot guidance "on the fly».
There is another possible reason for the favor of robots. We are talking about the personification of machines endowed with their traits of humans or animals. It is generally typical for a man many of us refer to their cars or computers not just as a mechanism, even give them names. This trend for robots confirm the results of a study conducted among American soldiers using military robots.

At the household level, we also surely will gladly welcome the entry of robots into our lives, and with pleasure will begin to shift to their small business and care.







This is not true.