Is there a chance the Eurozone?

In Europe, formed the "revolutionary situation" when people got into debt countries can no longer live in a tight economy, and a population of more prosperous countries of Europe does not want to pay for debts "wimps».
Last chance to rectify the situation got into debt European countries fell on the European Central Bank (ECB) by saving the largest economies in Europe.
Mario Draghi on Thursday took up the matter and told markets, how the ECB will save Italy and Spain, and improve the monetary situation in the EU. Draghi finally sent the markets a clear message: the eurozone is ready to fight for their future. But also stressed that the future is not only in the hands of the ECB, but in the hands of national governments. They will not get a penny from the regulator and the anti-crisis fund, if you do not start to economic reforms, especially fiscal and budget.

The work of the ECB will allow the euro to survive this year, but what will be the situation in the coming years?
The single European currency will survive successfully in 2012, while Spain will require financial assistance over the next 12 months, while Italy will avoid this fate, according to the results of an international survey of investors, traders and analysts conducted by Bloomberg, writes "Interfax-Ukraine».
The debt crisis in Europe, apparently, will be delayed for the fourth year, the survey participants say almost three years after the first signs of crisis tendencies in the region.
The idea that Spain will seek external assistance and receive such assistance in the next 12 months, supported by 85% of the 847 respondents. At the same time 59% believe that Italy will cope on their own.
"The need for funding in Spain is much higher than that of Italy. Spain is much worse to cope with the budget deficit, "- said the head of currency strategy at Commerzbank in Frankfurt Lihtman Ulrich, who participated in the survey.
Currently Spain is going through for the second recession in three years and holds the European record unemployment - almost 25%. In 2012, Madrid plans to cut the budget deficit to 6, 3-6, 4% of GDP to 8, 9% of GDP in 2011, but the rate will continue to exceed the standards of the EU more than doubled.
Italian budget deficit will be about 2% of GDP this year, although the country also observed recession.
Almost half of the experts surveyed by Bloomberg - 47% - expect a default of Spain in the foreseeable future, it was about the same number of pessimists on the results of the May survey. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds are now close to 7%, and aid to Greece, Portugal and Ireland needed after it sustained excess of this threshold.

About half of the respondents also expect the bankruptcy of Portugal, but this share is the lowest since January 2011. Ireland defaulted predict only 21% of respondents, which is the lowest level since June 2010. In this case, in default of Greece in the next 12 months are sure 92% of the respondents, 56% believe that the country out of the euro zone until the end of 2013. The share of those who see Greece out of the euro zone at the end of 2014 was 69%. In the financial stability of Germany believe 98% of respondents, France - 89%.
Investors and analysts have expressed optimism about a more explicit forecasts the crisis: 27% - 10 percentage points more than in May - believe that the worst is behind us. 69% believe that the signs of stabilization are temporary, but in May there were even more - 80%.

The other day, the international rating agency Moody's lowered the credit rating outlook of the European Union from stable to "negative". Negative outlook, analysts said the agency is due to the fact that earlier in this way were evaluated prospects of the EU's largest economies - Germany, Britain, France and the Netherlands. According to the rate of the international site Intrade, the probability of collapse of the euro zone, which is defined as the output of combining at least one of the Member States, to December 31, 2013 is 53, 5% (

Stabilization mechanism ESM is designed for 700 billion euros. At the moment it is only 250 billion euros, but the money is not enough to rescue the euro zone from the financial crisis (


See also

New and interesting