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Independent trucks smear our society on the asphalt
It is urgent to introduce the absolute income in view of the coming future robomobileyV us last year with a friend drove by car from New Orleans (Louisiana), Orlando (Florida), and passing town after town, we talked about the potential effect that robomobili will not only truckers, but for the rest of the local economy, which depends on their wages. And when you begin to think about the consequences of such a blow in the stomach for America, you know that the future is not so rosy.
we did not know such turmoil since built a system of highways Interstate - Economy small towns significantly prosyadut. If you think I exaggerate - let me tell you this:
on the map marked with the most popular professions in 2014
And it should immediately tell you how much the US economy depends on truckers. According to the American Association of Power (ATA), in the US they work 3, 5 million and another 5, 2 million people working in the transportation industry is not behind the wheel. In sum, we get 8, 7 million people whose work is connected with the trucks.
But the income received by these millions, create jobs for other people. 3, 5 million truckers stop to eat, drink, rest and sleep. Around them were built entire businesses. Restaurants and motels - just two examples. That is, there are still millions of people who depend on whether the work of truckers. But that's not all.
Workers in restaurants and motels - this is also buyers in their local economies. The waiters and maids, too, spend their income, with the result that once again creates jobs - that is, we now have not only the millions of people who depend on truckers, but also the whole of the city, depending on all these people. All these economies will shrink significantly while reducing expenses.
Another important detail - it's a good salary at the drivers. About 40 000 dollars a year. This is more than 46% of taxpayers. In addition, it is almost the last work in the country that will provide you the salary of the middle class in the absence of higher education. Truckers - the last representatives of a population driven to poverty, which previously worked on the production. But now the entire production displayed in other countries.
We get about 10 million working Americans and their families, whose income, partially or directly dependent on the work of truckers.
It turns out that while a truck is all right, and we will be all right, is not it?
Short-term prospects for American workers dalnoboyschikaIndustriya freight predicts an increase in the number of jobs by 21% by 2020. They also predict an increase in the lack of drivers - opened more than 100,000 vacancies they can not fill. High demand leads to an increase in salaries, so for the next five years will be good drivers. The only thing that can stop it -. It if the need for drivers, so to speak, move down a cliff
A cliff will auto truck.
All the necessary technologies have already been developed. Google recently impressed everyone by announcing that his robomobili traveled 100,000 miles without a single accident. Now they naezdili 1, 7 million miles hitting only 11 accidents, all of which occurred through the fault of the people. And it is mainly in the cities.
In the opinion of the developers of the system, on the highway accident rate is much lower, "As expected, the city accidents happen more often than on the highway - during a trip to the city we hit 8 times", - said Chris Urmson, director robomobiley development at Google. Therefore, driving outside the towns still less technologically complex, and unmanned vehicles, dissecting highways are significantly closer to us. But how close? Yes, they have go.
Robogruzovik first went on the road May 6, 2015.
This is not the future but the present. According to Daimler company, the trucks will be tested for 10 years, and hit more than a million miles before they become commercially available. But this technology is not in itself new. There's not even a lidar, like Google's machines - conventional radars and cameras. Iron there is absolutely nothing new. Daimler just first put it on trucks and allowing the driver to relax on the seat until the truck drives itself.
If he needs help, he will warn the driver. If he does not answer, the truck stops slowly and wait for instructions. And this is not fiction, not gruzovikovy version of KITT from the TV series Knight Rider. This is just an example of how the company and the state government did not interfere with the technology to do that for which it is designed - to allow people to achieve more with less. If robogruzovikov one of the advantages is to reduce the number of accidents
In 2012, the United States took part in the accident 330 000 trucks, and 4,000 people were killed -. Mainly passengers of cars. 90% of the accidents occurred due voditeley.Roboty errors will kill far fewer people, because the machine does not get tired, do not get distracted, do not look to your phone while driving, do not drink, do not use drugs, etc. Similarly, drivers quickly eliminated from the cockpit. The man is dangerous behind the wheel of a vehicle you want.
And robots do not need the salary - growing due to the fact that fewer and fewer people want to be truck drivers. The company buys robogruzovikov park and will not pay people for driving, only for car service. No insurance, no stops to rest -. Travel time will be reduced
It turns out that the replacement of the drivers is inevitable - it is not a question of "if" but "when." And what will happen to these millions of drivers who lost their jobs, and with all the other people?
Long-term prospects of American workers dalnoboyschikaRassmotrim robomobiley chart appearance. Tesla has released a software update that allows them to drive their own car. Tesla drivers can not yet do not control them, but very soon there will be also such vehicles, and the relevant laws.
The Morgan Stanley believe that fully autonomous cars will appear by 2022, by 2026 they will make a strong entry into the market, and 20 years from conventional cars just disappear.
Yes, of course, this is only estimations. But you still forecasts:
we did not know such turmoil since built a system of highways Interstate - Economy small towns significantly prosyadut. If you think I exaggerate - let me tell you this:
on the map marked with the most popular professions in 2014
And it should immediately tell you how much the US economy depends on truckers. According to the American Association of Power (ATA), in the US they work 3, 5 million and another 5, 2 million people working in the transportation industry is not behind the wheel. In sum, we get 8, 7 million people whose work is connected with the trucks.
But the income received by these millions, create jobs for other people. 3, 5 million truckers stop to eat, drink, rest and sleep. Around them were built entire businesses. Restaurants and motels - just two examples. That is, there are still millions of people who depend on whether the work of truckers. But that's not all.
Workers in restaurants and motels - this is also buyers in their local economies. The waiters and maids, too, spend their income, with the result that once again creates jobs - that is, we now have not only the millions of people who depend on truckers, but also the whole of the city, depending on all these people. All these economies will shrink significantly while reducing expenses.
Another important detail - it's a good salary at the drivers. About 40 000 dollars a year. This is more than 46% of taxpayers. In addition, it is almost the last work in the country that will provide you the salary of the middle class in the absence of higher education. Truckers - the last representatives of a population driven to poverty, which previously worked on the production. But now the entire production displayed in other countries.
We get about 10 million working Americans and their families, whose income, partially or directly dependent on the work of truckers.
It turns out that while a truck is all right, and we will be all right, is not it?
Short-term prospects for American workers dalnoboyschikaIndustriya freight predicts an increase in the number of jobs by 21% by 2020. They also predict an increase in the lack of drivers - opened more than 100,000 vacancies they can not fill. High demand leads to an increase in salaries, so for the next five years will be good drivers. The only thing that can stop it -. It if the need for drivers, so to speak, move down a cliff
A cliff will auto truck.
All the necessary technologies have already been developed. Google recently impressed everyone by announcing that his robomobili traveled 100,000 miles without a single accident. Now they naezdili 1, 7 million miles hitting only 11 accidents, all of which occurred through the fault of the people. And it is mainly in the cities.
In the opinion of the developers of the system, on the highway accident rate is much lower, "As expected, the city accidents happen more often than on the highway - during a trip to the city we hit 8 times", - said Chris Urmson, director robomobiley development at Google. Therefore, driving outside the towns still less technologically complex, and unmanned vehicles, dissecting highways are significantly closer to us. But how close? Yes, they have go.
Robogruzovik first went on the road May 6, 2015.
This is not the future but the present. According to Daimler company, the trucks will be tested for 10 years, and hit more than a million miles before they become commercially available. But this technology is not in itself new. There's not even a lidar, like Google's machines - conventional radars and cameras. Iron there is absolutely nothing new. Daimler just first put it on trucks and allowing the driver to relax on the seat until the truck drives itself.
If he needs help, he will warn the driver. If he does not answer, the truck stops slowly and wait for instructions. And this is not fiction, not gruzovikovy version of KITT from the TV series Knight Rider. This is just an example of how the company and the state government did not interfere with the technology to do that for which it is designed - to allow people to achieve more with less. If robogruzovikov one of the advantages is to reduce the number of accidents
In 2012, the United States took part in the accident 330 000 trucks, and 4,000 people were killed -. Mainly passengers of cars. 90% of the accidents occurred due voditeley.Roboty errors will kill far fewer people, because the machine does not get tired, do not get distracted, do not look to your phone while driving, do not drink, do not use drugs, etc. Similarly, drivers quickly eliminated from the cockpit. The man is dangerous behind the wheel of a vehicle you want.
And robots do not need the salary - growing due to the fact that fewer and fewer people want to be truck drivers. The company buys robogruzovikov park and will not pay people for driving, only for car service. No insurance, no stops to rest -. Travel time will be reduced
It turns out that the replacement of the drivers is inevitable - it is not a question of "if" but "when." And what will happen to these millions of drivers who lost their jobs, and with all the other people?
Long-term prospects of American workers dalnoboyschikaRassmotrim robomobiley chart appearance. Tesla has released a software update that allows them to drive their own car. Tesla drivers can not yet do not control them, but very soon there will be also such vehicles, and the relevant laws.
The Morgan Stanley believe that fully autonomous cars will appear by 2022, by 2026 they will make a strong entry into the market, and 20 years from conventional cars just disappear.
Yes, of course, this is only estimations. But you still forecasts:
- Navigant Research: 2035 robomobiley sales will reach 95, 4 million annually, and will take 75% of the market cars
- IHS Automotive : by 2035 the world will be about 54 million robomobiley
- ABI Research: half of all new cars sold in North America, will be the autopilot by 2032
- Nissan: 2020 for vehicles more autonomy elements will appear. This process will be evolutionary, and 2020 stand-alone capabilities really begin to appear in production cars
Putting it all and get a box of ten years, from 2020 to 2030 year.
Do not move out will not work with this break. What you need to market it and get - capitalism and competition. And this is not confined to Tesla and Google. Company Veeo Systems develops any robomobili from double cars are up to 70-seater buses, their testing in 30 US cities will begin to the end of 2016. year.
Uber is also working on developing its robomobilya, and, in addition, wants to eliminate the concept of the car owner as a relic of the 20th century. How to describe the situation CEO and founder of Uber Travis Kalanick, service customers pay not only for the car, but also for the driver. As for the driver will not have to pay a trip to anywhere Uber become cheaper owning a car, and as a result of owning a car is no longer needed.
Such potential robomobiley - the extinction of ownership institute car. And along with it die all the industries related to this field - mechanics, car, parking, valet parking service, repairs, rent, insurance, loans, etc., etc. ... Even public transport can be replaced with robotic cars - and with it, . all work associated with its creation and support
well, what is it about our trucks will take a realistic forecasts for passenger robomobiley, and slide projections appearance robogruzovikov closer to this - after all trucks need to travel without a driver only on the highway. Autonomy "from the warehouse to the store," it is not necessary -. Enough "from city to city" Moreover, since the trucks owned by the company, any opportunity to save money by removing them from the drivers, will be found.
Already tested convoys of trucks in which the first person leads and the rest are moving him automatically. This not only saves fuel, but reduces the number of drivers required. This technology is already working.
In general, the main barrier is now - a legal, rather than technical or economic. Most US states have to enact laws providing job robogruzovikam. According to Sergey Brin predicts it could happen as early as 2017. Therefore, the question "when" robogruzoviki vedut in our economy, the answer is. "At any time»
In anticipation of the social and economic kataklizmovEkonomika American heartland has suffered over the past decade and continues to suffer. Production moved overseas, where labor is cheaper, because life is cheaper. Companies like Walmart stores everywhere are building, which to service the same number of people need far less staff than small family shops. Amazon is working to eliminate all shops, leaving only fully automated warehouses and deliver the goods to the house buyer, thereby further reducing the number of jobs.
Remains are fewer jobs and commerce is concentrated geographically and access to the money goes from the lower and middle classes and focuses on top.
That's what happens when a lost well-paying jobs, and the money was not spent on salaries, and remain in the pockets of business owners, or spent on lower salaries. Inequality is increasing, and land of opportunity disappears. The economy is slowing down.
That is the situation we are now witnessing the rapid approach of 3 million unemployed truckers and many millions of unemployed serving their services.
Care work with truckers will have the same effect on today's city, which had the construction of the highway system Interstate bypass cities. When this system is replaced by Route 66, and the drivers are no longer to call them, which flourished before the city turned into a ghost, like Glenroy in Texas.
A robomobili robogruzoviki and lead to the fact that even those people who travel in cars will pass by the cities, because they do not have to stop for the night, it will be possible to sleep in the car. And this time appears the new highway, which would move entrepreneurs. At this time, the need will disappear in as many cities.
Last remaining dorogaVsego 10 years technology will destroy the economy familiar to us with ever increasing speed. Human labor will be less necessary and more unfavorable compared to the machines work. With this we will also insist that to get money to buy what we make machines. It's time to figure out how to provide themselves with money.
Without the "technological dividends" throughout society, our economy will fall asleep in paralysis, or we will fight to progress as such, become something of a Luddite, destroys the machine, have stripped their work. Without the income that is not tied to work, we have to resist ochayanno ensure that we do not replace the car, which we had built it to replace us.
Just like the roads in ten years will drive cars without drivers, and the economy of the 21st century will consist of people-customers, not people-workers, and they need purchasing power. If we do not provide for themselves in a short time the absolute income, the future will crash into us like a truck. The truck, which we are sent over ...
To allow such an outcome would be very silly - after all, does not need technology to give us a chance to get what we want? We should not be afraid of losing their jobs, we should welcome this opportunity. We should not be asking - what do we do when computers will take away our jobs. We must ask what we will get when we will be free of them.
Source: geektimes.ru/post/276262/
