So say in the Ministry of Agriculture, or why Western sanctions will benefit us
If, because of the conflict in South Ossetia, Russia would be economic isolation, then our economy is only going to help. Such a paradoxical conclusion can be drawn from the statements of the Rosselkhoznadzor. It will not be cheap imported chicken legs - will have to grow your own. Briefly tightening the belt, we are able to produce enough meat and grain. More and other remains. And on the TV, radio, and even sweat pants no isolation will not be - next to China.
- If you will run everything that can be run on agricultural production, we can feed 33 billion people, - said Thursday the deputy head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Nikolai Vlasov, speaking at a press conference on food security in Russia.
At first glance, his words seem to be a fantasy, because our dependence on imports - is colossal. The same food we have - 50% foreign. But this does not mean that it always will be. Recently, First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov announced that agriculture will come huge amount of money - up to 2012 farmers will receive an additional subsidy of 102 billion rubles. At the same time we reject the WTO requirements that have adopted unilaterally. But the import of pork and legs limit.
Who needs the WTO?
It would seem that the output of the Moscow agreements of the WTO must first strike at Russia. Say now our farmers will be more difficult to deliver their products for export. But this is not true. In the WTO, if anyone remembers, we have not yet accepted, and the conditions of the organization, we have a few years to carry out. For example, limit its support for agriculture. Or widen the door to American chicken legs. But we do not want to take.
This is roughly the same as playing football, when one of the gates boarded up. Try to break into the Western market! Local farmers are protected benefits and subsidies. And thanks to our preferential customs regime may overwhelm Russia cheap meat and pour the milk. And our have to solve not only economic problems but also social problems pile. This bad roads and the lack of "social" and the shortage of personnel. All of this is not immediately solved, but we must begin. And if the US administration, in response to Russia's actions in South Ossetia decided to "take revenge" freeze our accession to the WTO, it is possible that this is an occasion to revive agriculture?
Pumped food money
Our agriculture can not get out of the crisis. Hampered not only by general drunkenness and ignorance of farmers (that, alas, is missing), but also the objective problems. For example, the price. Since the beginning of mineral fertilizers grew by 54%, and fuels and lubricants - 37%. Is it any wonder that agriculture today is unprofitable! With such profits do not give credit. The only industry where things are more or less good - cereal production. There profitability reached 50%.
As already mentioned "Izvestia", the Government intends to allocate an additional 102 billion rubles to finance the state program of agricultural development for 2008-2012. This year, farmers will receive 39 billion rubles., Further - to 21 billion rubles. annually. Most breeders will receive. In this industry, the payback period comes to 10 years, and investors are afraid.
The peasants themselves also can not take the credit - too high interest rates. In addition, the long time it will not be given. To at least partially address this problem, the State will annually to 2, 3 billion rubles to subsidize interest rates on loans.
Such huge infusion of agriculture are necessary also because, rejecting imports, we may be faced with higher prices for products. His somehow do not produce enough. And yet sufficiently grown chickens, pigs and cows, can be formed deficit. "Tightening belts", alas, necessary cost of their own food security. If you succeed, it's not for long.
The Ministry of Agriculture has already announced that Russia intends to significantly "in the hundreds of thousands of tons of" cut import quotas for "Bush legs" and pork. This will allow our producers to expand their presence in the domestic market, and hence increase the profit which will go to the modernization of production, introduction of modern technologies.
Of course, this will not happen immediately. But once the balance of supply and demand level off - and it is the purpose of this multi-billion dollar subsidies - prices should stabilize.
Its food is tastier and safer ...
Food security - is not only the availability of food, but also its quality and safety. Get at least the same American chicken. Not only that, among these products are cases of salmonella infection, so also the manufacturing process, "Bush legs" - a mystery. They say the Russian markets is quite possible to buy a leg that had lain for 20 years in freezers American reserve in case of nuclear war. Such greetings from the past. "Leg" of the beginning of perestroika.
Overseas poultry producers use chlorine, which preserves, disinfects and gives carcasses presentation. But it is also a potent poison! And about what they eat chicken, even he does not want - various antibiotics, hormones, growth factors ... Do I regret that our market will be less than a bird?
US exporters will certainly be angry. To prove that their products are absolutely harmless and meet all conceivable standards. But it does not care about our customers, and the desire to maintain their production. If Moscow will severely restrict supply, the US poultry industry will suffer multi-million dollar losses. After all, Russia accounts for about 40% of the total overseas exports of chicken meat.
What do poor Americans? I suggest the option - to run on national television advertisements promoting the consumption of chicken. Approximately once I entered Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. Once in 2006, Rosselkhoznadzor has introduced a ban on Georgian wine, he called on his people to actively lean on alcohol. They say, has helped.
No, we will not do anything
Conceived to avenge us - please! But what the West really can we do? Enter embargo on electronics - so it has long been all going to China and other Asian countries. And these vendors are unlikely to be imposed on us any restrictions. Close We supply beef, on which we depend more than a bird - too please. Our farmers will rise, and is interrupted products from Brazil and Argentina. The irony of the situation is that any Western sanctions will only benefit us. After all, our oil and gas they will still buy (its not "grow"), and here we are without their meat can well do without. It is necessary, however, to tighten.
However, all the talk about the economic embargo - is also a bluff. Even if Western politicians decide to "punish" Russia, local manufacturers to give them a real obstruction. Trade wars are good, when they are sure of is their economic well-being of the country. For America, which is on the verge of default, this is clearly not the case. In Europe, too restless, and politicians often words are worth little.
As for consumer goods, their production - western licenses - has long been established in Russia. Most promoted foreign brands - from Marlboro to Pepsi - have long had Russian roots. It is clear that foreign investors just will not go away from Russia. Despite the ominous shouts of politicians.
PS: They have brought the country its polditikoy stupid! Put in a relationship - there are no words ....