417
The fall of the interim government
So, I promised to tell you why the "provisional government" will fall. And, inevitably will fall in the near future.
As Marxist science tells us, any political processes find their reflection in the economy, so we will speak in the language of economics.
Fundamentals for the current situation were laid a few years ago, and for the understanding of all the processes necessary to make a little history.
Until 2008, the economy is not that developed, rather it can be called a stalemate, but at least she was balanced. In 2008 there was the second coming of Tymoshenko for prime minister - and away we go downhill.
Continued under the cut ...
Tymoshenko made the economy the two scary shit:
a) it is in the short term external debt of Ukraine has doubled, increasing it to 14, $ 5 billion (at that point he held for ten years, since 1998 exactly) to 32 billion dollars. Moreover, a penny of that money was not spent on development. Where have they all gone - it is unclear. Whether populist "Yulia's thousand", or simply been stolen (or two). As a result, debt service began to spend much more money, destabilizing the budget and reducing the cost of something useful (development or social programs).
b) ensure that Tymoshenko became corporate debt state guarantees. As a result, the oligarchs gained in the west of huge loans, which significantly worsened the macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine, increased the total public debt (and the specific gravity of the guaranteed debt), as well as efforts oligarchy.
Azarov's government debt continued to gain (though already much slower), and for three years has brought the value of public debt to 58 billion dollars. The total debt of Ukraine at the same time exceeded $ 130 billion, and actually exceeded the GDP.
But it would not be fatal, if not another factor - the trade deficit. Back in 2005 it was even positive (about $ 800 million plus), then there was a little less (but in a reasonable and controlled limits).
And with the start of "European integration," the last two or three years, he left abruptly in the negative, amounting in 2011 to about 9 billion, and in 2012-13 had about $ 15 billion deficit.
If some "experts" will get you to rub that "blame the negative market conditions" or such nonsense - boldly spit them shameless eyes. Only one reason: because of the "European integration" process export to Russia and other countries of the Customs Union is rapidly decreased over the two years from 34 billion in 2011 to 19 billion in 2013 (all figures in the public domain, as many check). That is exactly $ 15 billion, which is not enough.
Output can make even a second-grader: if the Ukrainian leadership is not broken to the quick economic ties with the countries of the Customs Union (primarily Russia), there are no problems in the economy simply would not exist.
Moreover, prisoners at the end of last year the contracts in aircraft, automotive and shipbuilding, space industry and the military industrial complex, as well as obtained a substantial discount on gas Ukraine gave a powerful impetus to the development of the likes of which she did not have 23 years of independence.
Here is what on this occasion Finance Minister Siluanov: "We are in December last year bought a loan Ukrainian Eurobonds amounting to US $ 3 billion, with bought on preferential terms, the coupon rate was five per cent, redemption at par. That is, in such a way to support the economy and finances of the Ukrainian side. It should be noted that the price at which we bought was underestimated and reduced, as the price of securities quoted entirely different quotes, and we bought at a reasonable price for Ukraine. This allowed the return confidence in the Ukrainian securities and trust in Ukrainian bonds at the time. And so we have helped Ukraine to finance the budget deficit. "
I will tell you in plain text: Russia tried, like a dolphin, drowning push Ukraine to the surface. In fact, in a loss (only on gas would wipe several billion dollars).
But someone very much do not need a strong and prosperous Ukraine. And they stirred up euromaidan used for this pro-Western fifth column nurtured in the multibillion-dollar grants - mercenaries and professional sellers homeland. And cynically deceiving the masses. And, having seized power, they began to deliberately destroy Ukraine.
Let's analyze the actions of a "provisional government." Immediately, as soon as the "temporary" came to power, they canceled the law on languages (causing a confrontation in the country), DISCLAIM discounts on gas (who in their right mind would do such a thing?), Makes protective tariffs to protect domestic producers , introduce new taxes (worsening business climate), bring down the national currency (artificially action Stepan Kubiv repeatedly deciphered me and other experts). So could act only outspoken enemies of Ukraine, even at such stupidity can not be attributed.
Furthermore, they tear the remaining trade relations with Russia, which even more worsens the trade balance (potential hole of more than $ 35 billion). They also want to break the industrial contracts with Russia, but, fortunately, did not control the situation in the industrial south-east of Ukraine - therefore extremely large number of people continue to work and receive wages.
At the same time all the talk that the signing of the association agreement with the EU will improve the economic situation - a cynical lie. The EU recently voiced the possible growth of Ukrainian exports to the EU - not more than a billion a year. That is, we lose 35 to receive one (1!)? What is this "benefit" this ?!
At least someone I can name at least one article on which we are profitable to spoil relations with the countries of the Customs Union and to get into the loop constraints of the Association Agreement with the EU? I do not know of and I suspect that these simply do not exist.
I finally found the answer to the question "what was euromaidan?". For the destruction of Ukraine! And it is 100% correct answer, others simply do not exist.
As for the "war" with Russia.
Energy Minister noted that "even at reduced rates, which were used until recently, Ukraine has not paid off in March, that is, it is, frankly, a complete disgrace. At the same time we understand that it is, ultimately, generates the total volume of debt of Ukraine. I remind you that today is 3 billion referred to by the Minister of Finance, that is, the amount of the bond issue, the accumulated debt for gas in the amount of 2 billion more than 200 million dollars, and what we see as unearned Russian budget revenue associated with denunciation of Kharkov agreements. In total, it is about 11 billion 400 million dollars. That is a total debt burden, which could be required to collect, is 16 billion 600 million dollars. It's a lot of money. "
If there really was a war, then these amounts for a long time would be raised from the Ukraine, accelerating its default. If there was a war, the Energy Minister of Ukraine did not lead to talks with Russia on gas prices, but the finance minister is not begging to Russia has one more tranche of three billion. And finally, let's be realistic, if there was a war, it would have already ended, and polite people have been patrolling the streets of the city.
Temporary occupation government headed by Turchynov Yatsenyuk and lying, lying and lying. The only truthful message voiced by them at all during their stay in power - it's a message that will be even worse.
They talk about "bad and good Russian Europe", but in practice it's absolutely out vice versa. As the "great and terrible" Putin: "The situation is, to put it mildly, strange because, as you know, our partners in Europe, recognize the legitimacy of today's Kiev authorities, but do nothing to support Ukraine, not a single dollar, not one euro. The Russian Federation does not recognize the legitimacy of the authorities in Kiev, but continues to provide economic support and subsidize the Ukrainian economy hundreds of millions and billions of dollars so far. "
That is the whole "war" only occurs in the information field - in the oligarch-owned media and in the minds of some very suggestible people who are unable to perceive the information critically.
And now we move to declared at the beginning of the text explaining why the "provisional government" will fall.
As we all can see, galloping inflation in Ukraine. Prices are rising on a daily basis over the past two weeks they have grown by 20-30% (and in some areas, such as drugs - and 50%). The dollar is growing around the hryvnia per day, similar to the euro.
"Naftogaz" to pay for gas more than 2, 2 billion, and if the "Gazprom" will decide on the transition to the advance payment (as provided for in the existing treaties with the late payment) - something else not less than $ 800 million. Yatsenyuk said that they would receive gas reversal from Slovakia and Hungary, but the Slovaks have already said they will require payment of advance or guarantee by the EU (and the European Union, of course, is in no hurry to give them).
"We do not have Pan Otaman of gold reserves, and the boys began to disperse." Undying classics. Taxes are not collected, especially in the "subsidy" (as the propaganda broadcasts Maidan) Southeast Region. But they pulled it on a "flourishing" Center and the West.
It is about this situation, I wrote when describing the Kapp Putsch in Germany. When amateurs come to power, did not know how to, and do not understand in the government, they do not even have overthrown - after a sufficiently short time they lose the power automatically. But here the situation is even exacerbated by their idiotic and Russophobia, when they go into conflict with the only potential source of help.
For loans of the European Union will only then, someday, more "after two weeks" can be. And, as is evident to anyone skilled in tranche two to three billion do not improve the situation. No two or ten or even twenty-five. Is that delay the agony for a week. How can we improve the situation and to save Ukraine?
1. Expel all Russophobian politicians from the government (and the best of the country).
2. Disband all ultra-right gangs.
3. Prohibit the party "Freedom" and its "ochilnikov" to prosecute (Articles weight).
4. Punish the real perpetrators of the mass executions of people in Kiev and other criminal offenses.
5. Lyustrirovat liberal media, and a liar "journalists" involved in deliberately false propaganda to ban for life on the job profile.
6. give the Russian language the status of state, and for trying to arguments about the "titular nations" - entered the prosecution. All citizens of Ukraine should be equal in rights.
7. After that, to make peace with Russia, to negotiate discounts for the restoration of gas and trade relations, as well as soon as possible to integrate into the Customs Union (it can be strengthened, having the appropriate national referendum, which will consolidate the status of the contract).
This is the only way to keep Ukraine in general, and in its current borders, in particular.
Source.
Source:
As Marxist science tells us, any political processes find their reflection in the economy, so we will speak in the language of economics.
Fundamentals for the current situation were laid a few years ago, and for the understanding of all the processes necessary to make a little history.
Until 2008, the economy is not that developed, rather it can be called a stalemate, but at least she was balanced. In 2008 there was the second coming of Tymoshenko for prime minister - and away we go downhill.
Continued under the cut ...
Tymoshenko made the economy the two scary shit:
a) it is in the short term external debt of Ukraine has doubled, increasing it to 14, $ 5 billion (at that point he held for ten years, since 1998 exactly) to 32 billion dollars. Moreover, a penny of that money was not spent on development. Where have they all gone - it is unclear. Whether populist "Yulia's thousand", or simply been stolen (or two). As a result, debt service began to spend much more money, destabilizing the budget and reducing the cost of something useful (development or social programs).
b) ensure that Tymoshenko became corporate debt state guarantees. As a result, the oligarchs gained in the west of huge loans, which significantly worsened the macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine, increased the total public debt (and the specific gravity of the guaranteed debt), as well as efforts oligarchy.
Azarov's government debt continued to gain (though already much slower), and for three years has brought the value of public debt to 58 billion dollars. The total debt of Ukraine at the same time exceeded $ 130 billion, and actually exceeded the GDP.
But it would not be fatal, if not another factor - the trade deficit. Back in 2005 it was even positive (about $ 800 million plus), then there was a little less (but in a reasonable and controlled limits).
And with the start of "European integration," the last two or three years, he left abruptly in the negative, amounting in 2011 to about 9 billion, and in 2012-13 had about $ 15 billion deficit.
If some "experts" will get you to rub that "blame the negative market conditions" or such nonsense - boldly spit them shameless eyes. Only one reason: because of the "European integration" process export to Russia and other countries of the Customs Union is rapidly decreased over the two years from 34 billion in 2011 to 19 billion in 2013 (all figures in the public domain, as many check). That is exactly $ 15 billion, which is not enough.
Output can make even a second-grader: if the Ukrainian leadership is not broken to the quick economic ties with the countries of the Customs Union (primarily Russia), there are no problems in the economy simply would not exist.
Moreover, prisoners at the end of last year the contracts in aircraft, automotive and shipbuilding, space industry and the military industrial complex, as well as obtained a substantial discount on gas Ukraine gave a powerful impetus to the development of the likes of which she did not have 23 years of independence.
Here is what on this occasion Finance Minister Siluanov: "We are in December last year bought a loan Ukrainian Eurobonds amounting to US $ 3 billion, with bought on preferential terms, the coupon rate was five per cent, redemption at par. That is, in such a way to support the economy and finances of the Ukrainian side. It should be noted that the price at which we bought was underestimated and reduced, as the price of securities quoted entirely different quotes, and we bought at a reasonable price for Ukraine. This allowed the return confidence in the Ukrainian securities and trust in Ukrainian bonds at the time. And so we have helped Ukraine to finance the budget deficit. "
I will tell you in plain text: Russia tried, like a dolphin, drowning push Ukraine to the surface. In fact, in a loss (only on gas would wipe several billion dollars).
But someone very much do not need a strong and prosperous Ukraine. And they stirred up euromaidan used for this pro-Western fifth column nurtured in the multibillion-dollar grants - mercenaries and professional sellers homeland. And cynically deceiving the masses. And, having seized power, they began to deliberately destroy Ukraine.
Let's analyze the actions of a "provisional government." Immediately, as soon as the "temporary" came to power, they canceled the law on languages (causing a confrontation in the country), DISCLAIM discounts on gas (who in their right mind would do such a thing?), Makes protective tariffs to protect domestic producers , introduce new taxes (worsening business climate), bring down the national currency (artificially action Stepan Kubiv repeatedly deciphered me and other experts). So could act only outspoken enemies of Ukraine, even at such stupidity can not be attributed.
Furthermore, they tear the remaining trade relations with Russia, which even more worsens the trade balance (potential hole of more than $ 35 billion). They also want to break the industrial contracts with Russia, but, fortunately, did not control the situation in the industrial south-east of Ukraine - therefore extremely large number of people continue to work and receive wages.
At the same time all the talk that the signing of the association agreement with the EU will improve the economic situation - a cynical lie. The EU recently voiced the possible growth of Ukrainian exports to the EU - not more than a billion a year. That is, we lose 35 to receive one (1!)? What is this "benefit" this ?!
At least someone I can name at least one article on which we are profitable to spoil relations with the countries of the Customs Union and to get into the loop constraints of the Association Agreement with the EU? I do not know of and I suspect that these simply do not exist.
I finally found the answer to the question "what was euromaidan?". For the destruction of Ukraine! And it is 100% correct answer, others simply do not exist.
As for the "war" with Russia.
Energy Minister noted that "even at reduced rates, which were used until recently, Ukraine has not paid off in March, that is, it is, frankly, a complete disgrace. At the same time we understand that it is, ultimately, generates the total volume of debt of Ukraine. I remind you that today is 3 billion referred to by the Minister of Finance, that is, the amount of the bond issue, the accumulated debt for gas in the amount of 2 billion more than 200 million dollars, and what we see as unearned Russian budget revenue associated with denunciation of Kharkov agreements. In total, it is about 11 billion 400 million dollars. That is a total debt burden, which could be required to collect, is 16 billion 600 million dollars. It's a lot of money. "
If there really was a war, then these amounts for a long time would be raised from the Ukraine, accelerating its default. If there was a war, the Energy Minister of Ukraine did not lead to talks with Russia on gas prices, but the finance minister is not begging to Russia has one more tranche of three billion. And finally, let's be realistic, if there was a war, it would have already ended, and polite people have been patrolling the streets of the city.
Temporary occupation government headed by Turchynov Yatsenyuk and lying, lying and lying. The only truthful message voiced by them at all during their stay in power - it's a message that will be even worse.
They talk about "bad and good Russian Europe", but in practice it's absolutely out vice versa. As the "great and terrible" Putin: "The situation is, to put it mildly, strange because, as you know, our partners in Europe, recognize the legitimacy of today's Kiev authorities, but do nothing to support Ukraine, not a single dollar, not one euro. The Russian Federation does not recognize the legitimacy of the authorities in Kiev, but continues to provide economic support and subsidize the Ukrainian economy hundreds of millions and billions of dollars so far. "
That is the whole "war" only occurs in the information field - in the oligarch-owned media and in the minds of some very suggestible people who are unable to perceive the information critically.
And now we move to declared at the beginning of the text explaining why the "provisional government" will fall.
As we all can see, galloping inflation in Ukraine. Prices are rising on a daily basis over the past two weeks they have grown by 20-30% (and in some areas, such as drugs - and 50%). The dollar is growing around the hryvnia per day, similar to the euro.
"Naftogaz" to pay for gas more than 2, 2 billion, and if the "Gazprom" will decide on the transition to the advance payment (as provided for in the existing treaties with the late payment) - something else not less than $ 800 million. Yatsenyuk said that they would receive gas reversal from Slovakia and Hungary, but the Slovaks have already said they will require payment of advance or guarantee by the EU (and the European Union, of course, is in no hurry to give them).
"We do not have Pan Otaman of gold reserves, and the boys began to disperse." Undying classics. Taxes are not collected, especially in the "subsidy" (as the propaganda broadcasts Maidan) Southeast Region. But they pulled it on a "flourishing" Center and the West.
It is about this situation, I wrote when describing the Kapp Putsch in Germany. When amateurs come to power, did not know how to, and do not understand in the government, they do not even have overthrown - after a sufficiently short time they lose the power automatically. But here the situation is even exacerbated by their idiotic and Russophobia, when they go into conflict with the only potential source of help.
For loans of the European Union will only then, someday, more "after two weeks" can be. And, as is evident to anyone skilled in tranche two to three billion do not improve the situation. No two or ten or even twenty-five. Is that delay the agony for a week. How can we improve the situation and to save Ukraine?
1. Expel all Russophobian politicians from the government (and the best of the country).
2. Disband all ultra-right gangs.
3. Prohibit the party "Freedom" and its "ochilnikov" to prosecute (Articles weight).
4. Punish the real perpetrators of the mass executions of people in Kiev and other criminal offenses.
5. Lyustrirovat liberal media, and a liar "journalists" involved in deliberately false propaganda to ban for life on the job profile.
6. give the Russian language the status of state, and for trying to arguments about the "titular nations" - entered the prosecution. All citizens of Ukraine should be equal in rights.
7. After that, to make peace with Russia, to negotiate discounts for the restoration of gas and trade relations, as well as soon as possible to integrate into the Customs Union (it can be strengthened, having the appropriate national referendum, which will consolidate the status of the contract).
This is the only way to keep Ukraine in general, and in its current borders, in particular.
Source.
Source:
