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Predictions of the near future, which turned out to be the most incorrect
Description: This article will talk about the brightest unfulfilled forecasts to show how difficult it is to look into the future. The author analyzes the causes of errors and explains why even the most authoritative experts may not take into account all the factors of the development of society and technology. See more details in the first comment.
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Predictions of the near future, which turned out to be the most incorrect
Introduction
Humanity has been trying to look beyond the time horizon. We create schematics, formulas, and algorithms to predict what the world of tomorrow will look like. However, throughout history, you can find a huge number of grandiose predictions that never came true. Why is this happening? Perhaps the future is too complex a category, depending on a huge number of factors: from scientific and technological breakthroughs to unforeseen geopolitical or socio-economic changes.
Modern futurists often warn us that any forecast is based on our current view of the world. The most difficult task is to have the maximum picture. As soon as we allow distortions due to subjective experience or lack of information, our predictions begin to follow the path of incorrect assumptions. The result is colorful but unrealistic scenarios that often make us smile and sometimes shudder when we realize how much we have overestimated progress or underestimated the human factor.
Why it is difficult to predict the future
There are several key reasons why people regularly fail to predict:
- Data limitations. We know only part of the totality of facts affecting the development of society and technology.
- Human distortion. Cognitive errors, bias, and limited understanding of political and economic dynamics.
- Complexity of the system. The modern world is a gigantic web of interconnections and influences, where a single change can cause a cascade of unintended consequences.
- The unpredictability of innovation. A scientific breakthrough can happen at the most unexpected moment, radically changing the picture of the world.
The loudest false predictions
In history, there are many erroneous predictions, where scientists, entrepreneurs or statesmen, fully convinced of their rightness, were far from reality. Let's look at some of them.
Computers will not have much commercial value.
In the mid-twentieth century, many influential experts believed that counting machines were more of a luxury for large universities and defense laboratories. According to the popular misconception of those years, the global industry needs only a few computing centers to meet any needs. Reality proved the opposite: personal computers and then smartphones became an integral part of everyday life, forming new industries.
The Myth of the Paperless Office
In the 1970s-1980s, when computer document management was just beginning to develop, many experts predicted a complete departure from paper media. It was assumed that by the second half of the twenty-first century we would not use printed texts, forms and reports at all. But, contrary to expectations, offices are still actively using paper in large quantities. Yes, digital technology has reduced the burden on printing, but the end of paper has never come, and it is unlikely to happen definitively in the foreseeable future.
Optimistic predictions about flying cars
The idea of a “city of the future” with flying cars has been capturing minds for decades. “Soon,” said popular magazines and science fiction writers, “people will move through the air without traffic jams and traffic lights.” We have seen similar hopes in science fiction, but the mass transition to flying transport never happened. Yes, there are prototypes of airplanes, and large corporations are investing in research. But infrastructure and economic barriers have not yet allowed this mode of transport to become familiar, like airplanes or conventional cars.
Failure of predictions in robotics
Many futurists swear that robots by now will do almost everything for us – from cleaning the house to deep scientific analysis. Undoubtedly, artificial intelligence and industrial robotization have made a huge leap, but we are still far from the universal “robotization of everyday life” described in utopian scenarios. The human factor, the complexity of routine tasks, and sometimes the elementary economic disadvantage prevent the widespread adoption of fully autonomous robots in every sphere of life.
Reassessing the ease of space exploration
In the first half of the twentieth century, enthusiasm for space travel peaked. Many scientists and engineers assumed that the near future will bring not only flights to distant planets, but also full-fledged colonies on Mars or the moon. In fact, space travel was much more expensive and risky than expected. Today, space exploration is developing, but mass travel to distant planets associated with the permanent residence of people, we are still very far away.
Why do we keep making mistakes?
Human error. But why do we underestimate or overestimate the potential of things to come? There are several reasons:
- Reflection effect: People tend to project their views and desires into the future. We often try to make it wishful thinking.
- Complexity of systems: Any attempt to simplify reality leads to an incorrect forecast, as unstable links constantly appear in the ecosystem of social, economic and technological factors.
- Incomplete information: No matter how hard we try, we are always dealing with fragments of knowledge. Today, it is not known in what direction a major breakthrough will occur tomorrow.
- Political and economic interests: Some forecasts are custom made to influence public opinion or investors. This can mislead both experts and the general public.
Objective picture of the world: are there chances?
To make accurate predictions for the century ahead, we must have fullest understanding of current processes. However, this task is comparable to a puzzle of billions of pieces, many of which are still unknown or inaccessible.
In fact, even the world’s best think tanks can’t see all the correlations. Statistical approaches, of course, help build probabilistic scenarios, but their accuracy is often limited to decades. When the planning horizon shifts by a hundred years, factors of exponential growth or global crisis are included, which can mix all the cards.
According to a number of studies (for example, the works on futurology mentioned in Wikipedia), the closest to reality are found to be humble Forecasts that focus not only on technology but also on socio-cultural transformation. Such forecasts take into account that people do not change instantly under the influence of technical innovations, and maintain a habitual way of life and thinking sometimes longer than optimists expect.
Conclusion
History tells us that even the most authoritative minds can make inaccurate predictions, especially when it comes to long periods. Predictions that are as wrong as possible serve as an important lesson for us. don't To absolutize today’s knowledge and ideas, even if they are supported by logic and numbers.
Instead of blind faith in any forecast, it makes sense to keep a healthy dose of skepticism and curiosity. Technology, public sentiment, economics and politics are all too dynamic and interconnected. A meaningful approach to the future requires acknowledging our limitations and a willingness to adjust scenarios as new information emerges. That is why reliable long-term forecasts are rare, and their creation resembles art combined with science.
So when we ask what the world will be like in a hundred years, we have to admit: Hardly anyone has an objective picture of the real table to make a mistake minimally.. But this is no reason to give up thinking about the future. On the contrary, by examining the stories of failed predictions, we can learn from the mistakes of our predecessors and draw more appropriate and therefore more modest conclusions about what the world will look like tomorrow.
Glossary
Futurists
Specialists involved in forecasting future social, technological and cultural trends.
Forecasting
The process of determining probable scenarios based on current data and patterns.
Aeromobiles
Vehicles that combine the functions of a car and an aircraft.
Cognitive errors
Systematic distortions in thinking, often leading to incorrect conclusions or biased assessments.
Futurology
An interdisciplinary field that studies possible scenarios for the future development of civilization.
