We focus in the game is as wrong as our ancestors


Imagine this situation: you flip a coin a few times, and you all the time falls eagle. Then you flip again, confident that this time something will fall exactly tails. From a mathematical point of view of those expectations on anything not based, but nevertheless, subjectively you still think that after several setbacks the probability of success increases.

The same thing happens in the game of roulette - if repeatedly won the "black" means "now, then certainly win the red." Researchers from Canada's McMaster University led by James Lyons believe that such a "presentiment" due to the peculiarities of human neurophysiology. To confirm his hunch, they conducted several experiments.

Volunteers were asked to trace the two luminous objects, and they were lit and extinguished randomly. After some time, people had to try to guess which of the following objects will light. It turned out that the majority of subjects after guessed, chose to put on another object that had not lit - the people thought that if the object comes on only that, the likelihood that he immediately lights again decreases.

In the second experiment, researchers asked two people to see to the same objects which lights up at the same time and place bets on the turn. If one of them guessed right, the other preferred to put on another object. But the loss of any one of the experiments the choice had no effect.

Researchers believe (.pdf), that such a model of behavior inherited from our ancestors-gatherers. When they saw that the tree has fallen fruit, and one of their tribesmen picked it up, then immediately forgot about the tree and went to another because the first tree "bet is played." Of course, it would be wiser to stand up a little more in the same place - once the fruit has fallen, so the fruit is already ripe on the branches and soon will fall some more, but about the other trees not yet known. But perhaps it is on this principle worked neurophysiological chain of our ancestors, who preferred to redistribution of mineral resources. Well, maybe in their time and worked this way, but if you want to win at the casino, it is better to come up with a different strategy.

via factroom.ru


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