By introducing troops into South Ossetia, Russia is not only to protect the population of the unrecognized republic, but also sent a definite signal to neighboring countries, which are too great dedication joined the global game in Washington. According to American analysts, it is about the post-Soviet space, as well as Poland and the Czech Republic. This former US Ambassador to the UN Richard Holbrooke believes that "Ukraine will be next».
A week ago, such a forecast would look wildly. However, the position that Ukraine has taken in the context of Russian-Georgian confrontation, Moscow gives grounds for review of relations with the "orange" Kiev.
Even the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry's first reaction to the events in the Caucasus showed that Kiev takes hostile to the Russian position. Instead, at least formal condolences on the death of Russian people heard repeated US calls for "cessation of hostilities" and the argument that, "becoming a party to the conflict, it lost its status as a peacemaker." That is, the goal was announced started by the Saakashvili provocation: to seize the territory of the unrecognized republic, to enter the international contingent of the United Nations, and then repeat this scenario in Abkhazia and, ultimately, to push Russia from the Caucasus, at the same time weaken its influence in the former Soviet Union.
A week before Georgia's attack on South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoity pointed out that the sniper rifles, of which shelled Tskhinvali, were supplied to Georgia, including to and from Ukraine. It was also found that Kiev sold Tbilisi complex RTR "Kolchuga-M", 10 air defense missile system "Osa-AKM" and several radar 36D6-M, more than 30 tanks "T-72", 20 armored personnel carriers and 40 infantry fighting vehicles, 10 aircraft "L-29 "and 13 helicopters, missile boat" Tbilisi "(formerly" Konotop ") and search and rescue boat" George Taurel. " In addition, Georgia received from Ukraine a park used during the war machines, more than 40 tons of ammunition and spare parts for helicopters and military equipment.
Then it became known that among the Georgian snipers and subservient anti-aircraft missiles have Ukrainian mercenaries, on 9 August, Russian long-range bombers Tu-22 was shot down with the participation of Ukrainian art, and that at least one of the attempts to attack Russian ships missile boats was Ukrainian production. Commenting on the news, Ukraine said in the sense that it does not violate the law and has the full right to sell weapons. But today Russia is not very interested in, legally or illegally purchased technology, using which, Georgia shoots down its aircraft fleet to attack and kill people. For Moscow, the important thing: despite the "great agreement" on friendship and cooperation, "orange" regime consciously at war with Russia.
Private game is based around the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Over the weekend, several Russian ships have been put forward to the maritime borders of Abkhazia. Kiev began his blackmail with a warning that in case of the participation of Black Sea Fleet ships in the conflict over South Ossetia, it reserves the right to prohibit their return to the territory of Ukraine. This announcement was greeted with ironic comments commanders of the Black Sea Fleet, is well aware that Ukraine is not possible to prevent the entry of warships in Sevastopol bay, except to immediately abide American flotilla.
As for the legal aspect of the problem, in terms of dislocation Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is no prohibition on its possible participation in hostilities. Otherwise, his stay in the Crimean base would not make any sense at all. Who needs a navy, deprived of the opportunity to fight? However, after the August 11 Russian warships ensured the landing of heavy equipment on the territory of Abkhazia, Kiev slowed down somewhat and offered Russia to conclude a special agreement on the use of the Black Sea Fleet in armed conflicts.
On the same day it became known that the police and the tax police in Kiev Sevastopol got a job to verify financial transactions and payment BSF its services utilities. In the event of any violation instructed to be disconnected from the electricity and water berths, which are based on the Russian ships. In addition, it received an order to take account of the purchase of food for the BSF to check terms of Ukrainian legal grounds to stay in the city of Russian seamen and their documents on ownership of real estate.
Because many of the sailors and officers do not have a permanent residence or any other documents confirming the legality of their presence in Sevastopol, business can reach their expulsion from the country. However, today it is difficult to imagine how local authorities will catch and deport the Russians in a situation where Crimea rally in defense of the Black Sea Fleet, and threatened to block all entrances to Sevastopol "human shield." However, these indications of Kiev also give food for thought.
And indeed the whole situation looks very much asymmetrically. While thousands of Ukrainians come to Russia to work, Kiev is going to apply sanctions to seafarers whose stay in the Crimea stipulated a number of agreements. On the other hand, immediately after Russia provided humanitarian assistance to flood victims Ukrainians turned out that Kiev is not only offering to help the Ossetian refugees, but sends weapons to Georgia, with which the murder of Russian citizens. Such actions can only be regarded otherwise than hostile.
And having shown hostility toward Moscow, Ukraine de facto withdrew from the "great agreement" on cooperation with Russia and thus unleashed her hands. After ratifying the treaty in the late 1990s, the Russian side sees Ukraine as an ally, and in the context of the relationship removed all territorial claims to Ukraine. Today, however, after he broke Kiev "big contract" and even driving the Russian fleet from Sevastopol, Russia has every reason to state a claim to their ancestral territory, including Crimea.
Repeating the strategic mistakes of Georgia, Ukraine risks to get the same result: the loss of territorial integrity and the bankruptcy of the pro-American government.