Study: electric cars can be replaced 87% of cars on the road

But every day it will be different machines

Road traffic on the highway I-75/85 in Atlanta. Photo: Atlantacitizen

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology conducted the most comprehensive study to date, as far as existing electric vehicles are able to meet the needs of most drivers. The calculation took maximum cruising range of electric vehicles and an extensive private car trips Statistics collected by GPS data for several years.

Electric Youxia X will be available from the batteries 40, 50 and 85 kW / h (cruising range of 220, 330 and 450 km)

Statistics showed that the energy characteristics of electric vehicles available today cover 87% of the cars on a normal day passenger transport, even if the electric vehicle is charged only once a day at night. This figure remains surprisingly stable in different cities, even if in these cities is very different figure Pass average daily distance per inhabitant. For example, in the New Yorker account for an average of 21 kilometers a day behind the wheel, and a resident of Richmond - 34 kilometers (. See chart below).

differences in the habits of movement of people and the use of cars in different US cities

In other words, at any given point in time can be replaced by electric cars 87% of cars on the roads. But every day it would be different cars.

Outside the city measure DAP is 80, 8% in the city - 89, 1%. The table also indicates the accompanying fuel savings for the BEV (Nissan Leaf) and ICEV (Ford Focus) and the proportion of potentially saving on gasoline (GSP, gasoline substitution potential).

A group of researchers led by assistant professor at MIT Jessica transika (Jessika Trancik) spent four years to conduct this study. Scientists have conducted two data mining of large data sets. The first - with detailed statistics 117 588 missions drivers collected by state agencies in Texas, Georgia and California. For the collection of statistics on cars established a special GPS-receivers with recording data. For realism excluded from the sample statistics visits to the registered acceleration of 10 m / s2.

The second set of data - more extensive, but not as accurate. He collected as a result of drivers nationwide study habits. Across the country, they were questioned in detail where, how far and how often they drive. The second data set was necessary in order to prove that the statistics of drivers Texas, Georgia and California is no different from the statistics in other regions of the country. That is, in order to extrapolate the collected GPS-data and general conclusions.

Researchers collected statistics and the distance and time of travel, taking into account the style of driving and weather conditions. As a result, they have developed a model that describes a trip with a second accuracy to calculate the exact energy requirements if these trips were made on electric vehicles.

energy intensity and history of travel speed on roughly the same distance with a similar time

And thus we were able to calculate that 87% of car-days among American drivers fully fit modern electric vehicles. The total cost of ownership of electric vehicles (purchase price + the cost of fuel) does not exceed the total cost of owning a conventional car.

The researchers also found that for those days when drivers are passing the maximum distance will not be sufficient alone increase the battery capacity and extend the network of electric filling stations. To meet the needs of drivers in those days, the authors say, are needed "other transport technologies." In the first place they call ICE card sharing, ie the sharing of cars with internal combustion engine, and other technologies. Perhaps the way out there will use hybrid propulsion systems that can recharge the batteries on the fly, burning a small amount of chemical fuel (hydrogen, methane, benzene).

prototype electric LeSee from a Chinese company LeEco. Photo: LeEco

The authors believe that it is important to find a solution for this small number of "high-energy" days. If you solve this problem, it is possible mass migration of the population to electric transport and a significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. According to some scientists, it is critically important condition for the survival of mankind, which is much greenhouse gases warmed the planet (though the majority of educated people do not believe, in spite of the existing scientific consensus on this issue).

In addition to card sharing, for the mass transition to electric vehicles to be addressed and other issues, in particular, to expand the network of electric charging stations.

According to the calculations of researchers, considering the increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere from today's power plants, the need for electricity generation, the transition 87% of transport to electric traction will still lead to an overall reduction in US emissions from transport by about 30%. In turn, transport is approximately a third of the atmosphere in the United States of carbon dioxide emissions. A more significant effect is achieved by decarbonization of electricity.

Scientific work published August 15, 2016 in the journal Nature Energy (doi: 10.1038 / nenergy.2016.112)

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