How close to the saturation of the smartphone market?

The US market can not be called the market with a maximum level of penetration (smartphones). However, this market is the most extensive among those for which we have reliable (at least two sources) data, and the penetration rate is one of the highest.

With a graph showing the position of the United States relative to other countries for this indicator for the previous year can be found here . A year ago, a penetration rate of 56, 4%. I keep abreast of changes in the data from the company comScore, which judging by the level of penetration of the end of March was at 58, 2 and 55%, 3% at the end of January. Against the background of these indicators graph looks very plausible.

According to recent data from the comScore penetration rate stood at 68, 8%. In order to have an idea about the limitations of the growth of this magnitude, it is necessary to consider the pattern of change over a long period. By analyzing this pattern, it will be possible to see whether there is a clear inflection point of the graph, and hence predict the level of penetration of the technology, in which the saturation of the market (curve chart at the saturation point will be closer to a certain value of the asymptote).

Below chart shows the percentage change in the number of smartphone users to the number of people who do not use smartphones, starting with the end of 2009.

The following graph shows the rate of inflow of new smartphone users (measured in the number of new users per month).

Summarizing, we can say that the transition rate users on smartphones has remained largely unchanged. Since March '14 year brought 2, 8 million new users in March '13 year - 3,000,000, March '12 year - 2,000,000, March '11 year - 3 million.

Note that the graph (a histogram) I added a curve that (in retrospect) shows the average (for every 3 months) for the number of new users - fluctuations of the curve were relatively predictable because of their seasonality. It should also be noted that the penetration rate of 50% was achieved almost 2 years ago, but no significant changes in the process of technology adoption society has not happened. Percentage of owning mobile phones in the US is still growing (albeit very slowly) and is currently at around 90%.

The only conclusion that can be drawn from the above, is that even though the current penetration rate of 68, 8% of the US smartphone market is far from saturation. Given that the US is the leader among the "developed markets", there is hardly any reason to believe that in countries with large populations, the market could reach the saturation level.

Source: habrahabr.ru/company/celecom/blog/241830/