Bill gates called Kurzweil "the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence". Kurzweil is also known for other predictions that go beyond artificial intelligence. This article focuses on the most interesting, in my opinion, Kurzweil's predictions for the next twenty years. But first, let's find out who is ray Kurzweil?
Futurist and currently technical Director at Google, Kurzweil is the author of seven books (five of which have become bestsellers), the owner of twenty honorary doctorates and was awarded the insignia of three American presidents.
He is also the inventor of many technologies, starting with the first CCD flatbed scanner to the first reading machine for the blind. He is also the co-founder of Singularity University and is working with Larry page on the development of artificial intelligence in Google.
In short, ray Kurzweil is quite clever and his predictions are quite interesting. He constantly reminds us that we live in most interesting time in the history of mankind. Let's go through some of Kurzweil's predictions that have come true.
Kurzweil's predictions over the last 25 years In 1990 (25 years ago), he predicted...
...that a computer would defeat a world chess champion in 1998. In 1997 Deep Blue (IBM) beat Garry Kasparov.
...that personal computers will be able to answer questions, having wireless access to information on the Internet in 2010. As you can see, he was right.
...that in the early 2000s, the exoskeleton allows disabled to walk. Companies like Ekso Bionics and other technologies are developing (and already developed) that do exactly this and more.
In 1999, he predicted...
...that people will be able to give the computer a voice command in 2009. Although in 2009, natural language interfaces like Siri and Google Now started its long journey, it is likely that very soon we all will get rid of the keyboards.
...that computer displays would be built into glasses, creating an augmented reality, in 2009. In the laboratory, and by scientists such displays were created long before 2009, but Google started experimenting with Google Glass prototypes in 2011. We are now seeing an explosion in the field of augmented and virtual reality. Microsoft has just unveiled HoloLens, and Magic Leap is working on his very interesting technology — not to mention the rest.
In 2005, he predicted...
...that by 2010, virtual solutions will allow for language translations in real time, when words in a foreign language will be translated to text in another language. It is worth saying that Microsoft (Skype Translate), Google (Translate) and others have already implemented it. Individual apps like Word Lens can even translate words on pictures your camera.
Kurzweil forecasts the next 25 years Presented above are only a few forecasts. Although he could be wrong in the details, up to one year, his track record looks impressive. But there are others that may seem interesting to entrepreneurs, for example. Some can earn for them. On business others to influence directly.
"By the end of 2020, the glasses will project the image directly onto the retina. Ten terabytes of computing power (about as much as the human brain) will cost $ 1,000.
By 2020, most diseases will disappear because the nanobots become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human food can be replaced by nanosystems. The Turing test will be held continuously. Self-driving cars will flood the roads, people will prohibit yourself to go on motorways.
2030 years virtual reality will become the 100% real feeling. We will be able to download your own brain/consciousness by the end of this decade.
By 2040, the nonbiological intelligence will be a billion times more capable than biological (ie, our). Nanotechnology will be able to create food and any objects of the physical world literally out of thin air.
By 2045 we will be able to multiply their intelligence a billion times, linking the bark of our hemispheres wirelessly with artificial neocortex in the cloud".
Is an important observation. It is not in the predictions. The fact that they represent. Kurzweil's predictions — side process of his (and our, in principle) understanding of Moore's law, the law of increasing returns and exponential technologies.
These technologies follow an exponential curve based on the principle that computing power doubles every two years. We humans tend to think linearly. Entrepreneurs also have to think exponentially.
Most of us do not understand the forecasts of futurists, because in the initial stages of development of exponential technologies they mislead us. First and foremost, we see them as destructive — just look at the massive companies that were destroyed by technological advances in the field of artificial intelligence, virtual reality, robotics, the Internet, mobile phones and so on. But each of these technologies goes way demonetization and democratization of access to products, and this path is not linear — it is exponential (think about Moore's law).
Today, those same technologies are the basis of multibillion-dollar companies and affect the lives of billions of people.