"Error Player" - a term meaning an erroneous understanding of random events






Error player (gambler's fallacy) - or a false conclusion Monte Carlo reflects the widespread misunderstanding of random events. Due to the fact that, as a rule, people do not realize intuitively the fact that the probability of a desired outcome does not depend on the previous outcome of a random event.

For example, in the case of the coin toss a lot of time in a row could happen is a situation that will drop 10 "tails" in a row. If the coin is "normal", for many people it seems obvious that the next roll of the likelihood of dropping out of the eagle will be more. However, this conclusion is erroneous. The probability of heads or tails of the next still remains ½.

It is necessary, however, to distinguish between the concepts: probability of dropping out 'heads' or 'tails' in each individual case and the likelihood of dropping out "tails" ten times in a row. The latter will be 2 - 10 = 1 / 1024. However, this will be the probability of any other fixed sequence of heads and tails, with 10 throws of a coin.

Source: ru.wikipedia.org

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