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A strange experiment with a Sleeping Beauty changing the drop rate of an eagle or tails
Thought experiment tossing monety
Experiment with Sleeping Beauty will never be conducted, for many reasons. But if it were possible, we would have to rethink how we calculate the probability of which side of the coin toss will be on top after.
The essence of the experiment: for example, Sleeping Beauty on Sunday administered anesthesia, and she falls asleep. Coin toss. No matter what, Beauty wakes up on Monday. She briefly describes her feelings and goes back to sleep, but not before she administered a drug that erases Belle memory of this conversation and that she even woke up.
If the coin before the fallen eagle up, the Beauty awakens only on Monday, and if tails, then on Monday and Tuesday. Every time talking to her, and during each conversation before they enter a drug for amnesia, she asked what, in her view, side up dropped coins.
When you toss always falls either eagle or tails, no middle ground. When Sleeping Beauty wakes up, she has no way to determine today Monday or Tuesday, and she has no idea if she woke up earlier. Regardless of its conclusions, the chance to guess - 50 to 50.
For example, in our not too humane world in 1000 there will different volunteers to participate in such an experiment. Will throw a coin 1,000 times and 500 times the eagle falls, and 500 times - tails. But do not wake up Sleeping Beauty 1000 times - she wakes up 1,500 times.
Each time the coin lands tails up, Beauty wakes up twice, on Monday and Tuesday, and it carried out two conversations - so will 1000 times. When the eagle falls, Sleeping Beauty wakes up only 500 times. Of the 1500 cases, two-thirds will fall tails again, and only one-third of the total percentage of tosses - the eagle. Knowing this, Belle must often choose tails.
There is a third idea of this experiment. The bottom line is this: as anyone at all concerned? Every conversation is no different from the others. After the experiment, Sleeping Beauty wakes up and never knew that already woke up this many times, and she always asked the same question. Thus, the question of choice probability personally Sleeping Beauty will not matter.
via factroom.ru
Experiment with Sleeping Beauty will never be conducted, for many reasons. But if it were possible, we would have to rethink how we calculate the probability of which side of the coin toss will be on top after.
The essence of the experiment: for example, Sleeping Beauty on Sunday administered anesthesia, and she falls asleep. Coin toss. No matter what, Beauty wakes up on Monday. She briefly describes her feelings and goes back to sleep, but not before she administered a drug that erases Belle memory of this conversation and that she even woke up.
If the coin before the fallen eagle up, the Beauty awakens only on Monday, and if tails, then on Monday and Tuesday. Every time talking to her, and during each conversation before they enter a drug for amnesia, she asked what, in her view, side up dropped coins.
When you toss always falls either eagle or tails, no middle ground. When Sleeping Beauty wakes up, she has no way to determine today Monday or Tuesday, and she has no idea if she woke up earlier. Regardless of its conclusions, the chance to guess - 50 to 50.
For example, in our not too humane world in 1000 there will different volunteers to participate in such an experiment. Will throw a coin 1,000 times and 500 times the eagle falls, and 500 times - tails. But do not wake up Sleeping Beauty 1000 times - she wakes up 1,500 times.
Each time the coin lands tails up, Beauty wakes up twice, on Monday and Tuesday, and it carried out two conversations - so will 1000 times. When the eagle falls, Sleeping Beauty wakes up only 500 times. Of the 1500 cases, two-thirds will fall tails again, and only one-third of the total percentage of tosses - the eagle. Knowing this, Belle must often choose tails.
There is a third idea of this experiment. The bottom line is this: as anyone at all concerned? Every conversation is no different from the others. After the experiment, Sleeping Beauty wakes up and never knew that already woke up this many times, and she always asked the same question. Thus, the question of choice probability personally Sleeping Beauty will not matter.
via factroom.ru
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