How will the next revolution. Bashny.Net

In the twentieth century, all revolutions end in one scenario. There are no winners. There are only losers. Over the past twenty-five years as a result of the revolutions have disappeared from the world map: the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia. Bloody revolution swept in Serbia, Libya, Syria, Egypt and other countries. Our country is waiting for the classical scheme of "death»:




If Yanukovych, under the pressure of the revolution, it abdicates:

A day
Peaceful demonstrators will look massively detained in prison, prisons, police stations and rayupravleniya. Along rayupravleniya and offices may be subject to defeat. There will scatter persons arrested for various criminal offenses.
Hostels police station, where also located the family of "Berkut" tried to storm: "to punish the perpetrators of the beating of children on the Maidan." "Berkut", protecting their families, will begin to break out of Kiev, without regard to any victims. Their only escape route - either to the east or to the south.
"Peaceful protesters" are sent in Mezhyhiria, Concha Zaspa and other "rich neighborhoods." From their midst stand provocateurs and thugs who robbed during the gentlest of time and burn more or less beautiful houses and buildings.
Employees rayupravleniya police barricade either at its premises or go home - to protect families. Some chiefs said that "the police and the people." Will invented a new hybrid of law enforcement: mixed patrols of police officers have passed the revolutionaries and samooborontsev with Maidan.
The Verkhovna Rada in the current, where the majority - deputies from the Party of Regions and communists, declared illegitimate and dissolved.
Pompous revolutionaries celebrating victory and begin to share power. At the head of the country, ministries, provincial, municipal and district authorities are the most vociferous revolutionaries.

A week
The newly created groups of "people's militia" will be enough for the country in which previous convictions - almost 1, 5 million people. Some of them, with other people with criminal and predatory inclinations, will start to smash trade shops, then - apartments "richer". The first to be attacked Gopnik large shopping malls with clothing and ornaments.
In towns and villages begins mass "witch hunt": ex-policemen, prosecutors, judges, the "regionals", "bribe" and others. Raining Blood "supporters of the regime of Yanukovich»
Begin massive attack on pawn shops and banks in which the accumulated information on debtors for loans. The banking system will be paralyzed. Commercial banks massively withdraw their financial assets abroad.
The hryvnia fell. The dollar sold for the first 10, then 15, then - for 20 hryvnia. Revolutionaries include the printing press, but it further accelerates devaluation.
Crimean Parliament categorically refused to recognize the new revolutionary government. On the peninsula are beginning to set up self-defense units. Russia says it will not allow a repetition of the Ossetian scenario and apply preventive measures: Marines, airborne troops and the navy will be given in full combat readiness.
In Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and other southern and eastern areas of the people en masse protest against what maydanovtsy trample their right to free choice. Vote for the Party of Regions, they said they would be considered legitimate authority only representatives of this party. Following this, the head of the regional council, and these areas will refuse to recognize the new Kiev government.
Ukraine is split into two parts. "Front" will be held on "controversial" areas: Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovograd, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy.
The revolutionary rulers are trying to organize a peaceful life in the country, but they lack the money and intelligent cadres - performers. Economy, industry, social services and other vital sectors of the country destroyed.

A month
European politicians continue to welcome the revolution. But they are under any pretexts delay a decision on granting Ukraine the necessary loans. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund without regard to anything requires Ukraine to pay billions of dollars in debt.
Russia refuses to provide Ukraine the promised Putin Yakukovichu loans and to make further concessions on the issue of low gas prices. Gas expensive again.
The revolutionary government is blackmailing the Kremlin, saying that block the oil and gas pipe from Russia to Europe. Putin says that he will block the tubes, as I do not want to have anything to do with such policies.
China refuses to provide Ukraine Yanukovych earlier promised loans and funds, as is not going to invest in a country with an unstable political situation. In addition, the main objective of the Chinese - the construction of a port in the Crimea peninsula and the government refused to cooperate with the revolutionaries.
Producers of dried foodstuffs, confectionaries, meat and dairy products and frozen cut production in order not to incur financial losses. Also, it stops the production of medicines, hygiene products, daily necessities and so on.
In grocery stores sharply raised prices, but they can not keep up with the rate of exchange. The store is still bread, canned food, cereals and pasta.
The Budget of Ukraine "suddenly" run out of money. Phased payment of salaries frozen for: doctors, teachers, firefighters, employees of cultural, social, and others. Cease payments from the budget to pensioners, invalids, families with many children.
Private companies are also closed mostly because losing customers. Millions of people across the country are unemployed.
In public-sector workers and employees of private businesses run out of money in large quantities.
People stop paying receipt of rent, electricity, water, and so forth. The staff of power and housing and communal services free refusing to carry out their functions.
The newly flourishing markets. The potato became a luxury item, and meat - "just for the rich." Trade is gradually moving to the hryvnia for foreign currency.
On the power supply and the establishment of the revolutionary armed forces are introduced. Electricity begins to be supplied to the house only during certain hours. Hot water and heating are disabled. Residents of apartment buildings are requested to make garbage collection in the city dump.
In the "front-line" areas begin clashes between supporters and opponents of the new government.
The leaders of the revolution soryatsya with each other, none of them wants to take responsibility for themselves and each pushes the blame for the crisis on the other
A few months
All regions of the country flooded with a wave of looting, violence and murder.
In stores end up canned food, and cereals. The bread is only given on the cards.
It starts outflow of urban residents in the village.
People take to the streets en masse to demand the resignation of the revolutionary government.
Yesterday's heroes of the revolution of the self-defense groups, abandoned in the suppression of hunger riots, instantly becoming punitive, murderers and Nazis.
In the European Union, UN and Russia discussed the issue of the provision of humanitarian and food aid to the population, the introduction of peacekeepers in the territory of Ukraine.
In Ukraine, begin to dwell military units from NATO countries and Russia.
Ukraine completely deprived of attributes of independence: the national currency, border and customs services, the armed forces, as well as gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Countries are beginning to manage the "international experts».

Jaroslav Tinchenko historian.

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