4 myths about mathematical probabilities

It is only in the literature of one chance in a million falls in nine cases out of ten. But in real life math taxis. Especially one section it - mathematical statistics and probability theory. But worst of all is necessary to those who try to follow this science from the general misconceptions about it. "Sooner or later, any event happening." Oh yeah. But there are nuances.

Myth 1. With each failure chance povyshayutsyaNaprimer: Are you waiting for the bus, but the desired number does not appear. Come and thirteenth and twenty-one, and even a rare 157-Express. You start to think, not whether you take a taxi or go on foot, but remains in place. Because the longer you wait, the less there, right?

Who is guilty? Excuse O. Bender, head vbivshy Keys, and along with all of us that "every empty chair grow our chances." And he's right, if Madame Petukhova probably hidden treasures under the upholstery. If there is the slightest doubt in this situation takes an unpleasant turn.

In fact: In mathematical terms, if the probability of the event is less than 100% (and in life, and only those are), then each failure probability of success decreases. That is, the longer you wait for the bus (looking for a job, trying to find the find the treasure), the less chances you have to get what you want.

What to do? Use the first viable option. Next will only get worse.

Myth 2. If the chances of 50 to 50, who can win ugodnoNaprimer: You're playing roulette, putting only red and black. The odds, of course, a little less than half, because there is still zero, yes, okay, we will not complicate. Let it be "either won or lost", with equal chances. And you want to if you do not break the bank, or at least break even.

Who is guilty? Casino, of course. In their propaganda they deliberately take into account only a single parameter: the probability of winning in a given game. He throws bones - get rich, wow! But nobody throws the dice once. And no one takes into account another important variable: the amount of money each of the opponents.

In fact: When "harmless game" - one in which the chances of winning and losing in a particular round are equal - guaranteed winner is the one who has more money. That is, you can win, putting on red. You can even win a few times. But the longer you play, the closer your bankruptcy.

What to do? To go with the average of their need to play a game where the probability of winning is 67%, ie 2/3. There are no games. Even the coolest strategy blackjack give a maximum of 53%. Play with the same as you. Leave the casino billionaires.

Myth 3. If you really got down to business, it is necessary to bring it to a victorious kontsaNaprimer: You worked as a junior seller (or deputy. Commercial Director). Tearing ass based on the increase. And its still no. But you persist, to another work do not go, although the job is. Wait, that one day you still will increase.

Who is guilty? The Myth of the corporate loyalty mixed with the traditional human conservatism. And also have the aforementioned vain hope.

In fact: As mentioned above, over time, it increases the likelihood of an unfavorable outcome. That is, we must know when to get off. Because invested no result can be indefinitely.

What to do? Decide how much time and effort you are willing to give this office. For example, a year. Then start to consider job and do it the third time. In our case it is four months. Four months later settle for the first offer, which will be better than any of the proposals. Unless, of course, during this time you will not increase. And if the proposal to raise will be the most profitable. I wish to know why so - tamp in a search engine, "the problem of choosing the most dowry».

Myth 4. Slow and steady wins - on budeshNaprimer: You open your business. Need machines, computers, secretary, and other tools. At the same time you do not know a business or burn out all the ashes go. And, like a good boy, and start podkaplivat invest gradually. Choose, in general, the evolutionary path. The hope, of course, that this will be able to lure good luck.

Who is guilty? Our ancestors. And those who came up with about the "slow and steady wins", and those who called fearful philosophy serf "folk wisdom».

In fact: The precautionary approach reduces the chances of a favorable outcome compared with four times the risk approach "to bet everything at once." That is Invest ruble far less profitable in terms of the probability theory, once you invest a million.

What to do? Throw into battle all the troops in the vanguard - secretary. So where are you likely will win a place under the sun.

Source: www.xxl-online.ru

via factroom.ru