Weekdays forecasters Bashny.Net

Education and job search
On meteorologists and weather forecasters are mainly taught in two universities: Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU) in St. Petersburg and Odessa Hydrometeorological Institute. In Moscow specialists are available with the Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University, where there is a department of meteorology and climatology. I learned it here.
Better education in our business is considered hyd Petersburg: they prepare narrow specialists is to work in the weather service. Education at MSU is considered more broad and fundamental: graduates usually work in research institutes and reluctantly go to the weather service.
Now you can get an education forecaster and regions. We were in the Met often come to work graduates from other cities. Have a staff of Kazan, from the Far East.
In my youth, during the Soviet era, the students after graduation distributed work: in the Met, research institutes, airports. Now this, of course not. Everyone forced himself to look for a place. Posoobrazitelnee guys start to get a job for another second or third year. They practiced in institutions and meteorological help professionals to immediately after graduation to enter the permanent job. Schedule more convenient for young people - we are working day through three. With age to withstand such a rhythm is problematic.
Salaries have little. Senior forecaster receives 12,000 rubles plus a quarterly basis the same prize. But visitors provide dorm room. Earn more forecasters at airports: they decide whether to make flights, pilots and explain what is happening in the sky.



How to predict the weather
Every three hours in all weather stations measure the main parameters of the atmosphere around the globe: pressure, wind speed and direction, air temperature and soil. At some stations is sensing of the atmosphere. Cloud information obtained at this time from the satellites. All these data in 15 minutes arrive in basic meteorological centers - in Moscow, Washington and Melbourne. Here they begin to handle the weather forecasters. They put the information on a special "weather maps". Such maps can be done for a given region, and for the whole country and for the world. On the map mark the front, cyclones Anticyclones movement of wind pressure, and so forth. Forecaster task not only all this cause, but also to understand what will happen next. Roughly speaking, goes to Moscow warm front, and if he can shift the cold? This synoptic method. So the weather forecast for three to five hours.
To determine the weather for a longer period, there are special mathematical model hydrodynamics that help to predict the temperature, humidity, air pressure and other parameters. They allow you to predict the weather for three, five, seven days. There are models to calculate the weather for two or three weeks, but such predictions may not be accurate, because the synoptic period (ie, the life of the cyclone and front) lasts five to six days. Some models for the prediction is not enough: it is always necessary to take into account the peculiarities of a particular locality. That is why the most accurate forecasts are obtained in the Synoptics in its region.



Whom to believe
In Soviet times, the forecasts engaged only Met. Now, in addition to it, there are private weather services. For example, "Phobos". Very rarely happens that our predictions match 100%, although all work with the same data. This happens because everyone uses different models. We can say that the rain will start at the same time, and they believe that an hour later. The expected temperature may vary several degrees. For a simple citizen is imperceptible difference, but our forecasts are oriented utilities, agricultural workers, and so on. Only our forecast is the official, and depends on him work a variety of services. Hydrometcenter can not make mistakes, we conducted a rigorous report, we also profit organization. Private life spared from this. If they make a mistake, then nothing will happen: people simply nothing will take an umbrella.
But private companies earn good money - they sell their predictions on television and radio. They are usually small staff, and all the profits are divided between.
The official forecast always comes with a note: "According to the Hydrometeorological Center of" or "Moscow weather bureau." Only the forecasts of these organizations are the government and the MOE, and urban services. They have the legal right and to issue warnings about the dangers of weather.



Forecast error
Forecaster never decide alone. The forecast is always discussed with colleagues. Especially if it concerns the storm warnings. The most anxious time for meteorologists - this spring and autumn, when the frosts. With icing must be very careful. Once our expert predicted that the temperature drops below zero at 05:00 and it happened an hour earlier. Communal washed important outcome, and she froze. On the site there was a serious accident. Had to report to us. For erroneous forecast we have not fired, but it threatens to deprivation of the premium.
In the heat, too, can not be wrong. 28 degrees to Moscow - is the norm, and 30 are already starting duty service MOE, can start forest fires. One of the most dangerous phenomena for Moscow - it showers. Each time they forecast the utility should be cleaned sewer grates and plums to prevent water from flooded streets. There is even a special commission, before which every month we have to report about to make a prediction.
On TV every channel gives its forecast for Moscow. One can promise rain and 25, on the other - 27 and sunny. And the program "Vesti-Moscow" in the mornings are generally given a forecast for yesterday.
Good weather forecaster - is an experienced specialist. Weather Center gives forecast only in Moscow. For the rest of the town there are local experts. Competent prognosis can be given only by knowing the specifics of the area, which affects the weather.



About superstitions weather
We follow the signs of 1999, but for the sake of scientific interest. Only true that for a short period. For example, in the summer in the country I am always check whether there is dew on the grass. If it is not, it's going to rain during the day. This sign is valid for the next six hours but it always works. After all, plants feel the change in atmospheric pressure and humidity. Forecaster usually versed in the clouds and immediately see the "harbingers of a warm front." Certain kuchkoobraznye clouds always suggest that warmer soon, but it will be drizzling rain.
As for the popular will in the spirit of the fact that the Shroud always starts snowing, they do not always work. Maybe earlier in the villages they acted. But with the advent of urban climate has changed a lot, so these signs ceased to work.



Climate change
Forecasters do not follow the climate change because its time period - 30 years. Responsible for this climatologists. If in 30 years the weather has changed considerably, for example, significantly reduced the number of cyclones in the summer, you can call it climate change. For the rest, we must not forget that there are just special periods: for example, five years in a row winter is cold or rainy summer ten years. Such things can not be considered as climate change.
But in general, global warming, of course, obvious. Climatologists monitor the flow of solar energy, the structure of clouds, the temperature of the ocean. Fault warming is the so-called greenhouse effect, known to everyone from school. Climate normals are really starting to change. Even in Moscow, the average annual temperature was higher.
Recent years, climate scientists are worried about Yellowstone volcano in the US, which can wake up at any moment. His ashes film will cover the earth, it will cease to warm sunshine and start to slowly cool.

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Source: www.the-village.ru