Forecast of German scientists, in 2014 to be a heat wave

German scientists have provided the public with the following prediction: in the current year should be heat waves, as this year promises to be the hottest really throughout the history of meteorological observations.

Incidentally, such a statement of German scientists is very brave, as modern supercomputers provide more accurate predictions with the deadline - a week.

Prediction of German experts justified the study so famous events such as El Niño, which has a cyclic character. It is about the warm water, which is hidden under the surface of the Pacific Ocean. It was she, rising up, and extending along the equator to America, is able to determine the climate for such a long time.

In the case where the event of climatic anomalies, scientists often refer to El Niño, which is not so simple as it seems. The fact is, given the fact that El Niño has already started to form, it is very difficult to calculate the stages of its development.

El Niño by scientists of the University of Giessen, Germany. They were able to create an entirely new model of the phenomenon, providing a close relationship between the temperature of the air above the equator and the rest of the Pacific Ocean in front of each El Niño. Their degree of proximity characteristic points on this phenomenon.

Based on the new forecasting techniques, it turns out that the step of forming El Niño has its beginning in September of last year. Consequently, the probability of El Niño 76%, according to German scientists. However, their conclusion is surprising: it turns out, this year should be the hottest in history, and so, except for El Niño. If it happens, it may be much hotter.

It should be noted that a large number of other climate models to predict the weather, suggests that probably this year's El Niño is still formed. Scientific opinion must be considered, but also need to understand that not all long-term forecasts tend to come true.

Source: EvroSMI


See also

New and interesting