Why forecasters are not confident in their forecasts Bashny.Net

Every year we are so agonizingly long, so anxiously waiting for spring, so many people are now haunted by the question: “What will spring 2020 be like?”





Maybe nature will win back for an abnormally warm winter and surprise us in March with frosts and snowstorms? Or on the contrary, in the spirit of global warming will break all records of positive temperatures?

In the middle of Russia, the timing of the onset of the climatic spring (when the daily temperature steadily exceeds 0 degrees), as a rule, falls on the third decade of March.





In Moscow, for example, long-term air temperature measurements usually give an average monthly value for March within 2-3 degrees of frost.





This year. climate spring came almost before the calendar, and since March 2, the average daily temperature has confidently exceeded the mark of 0 degrees.

Climate scientists and eco-activists blame global warming for such anomalous heat, and one by one make alarming statements about the future of the planet.





In their opinion, along with the climate changes the nature of precipitation, circulation of the atmosphere and ocean currents. Nature's response to these changes is the weather surprises that we increasingly face.

1. march
   The main surprise of March may be unusually warm weather, characteristic rather of mid-April. “It’s not spring, it’s summer,” he said. weather forecast for early March Scientific Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Vilfand.
   
   
   
   So, in the first decade of March, abnormal heat is expected in the Voronezh, Kursk and Lipetsk regions - up to plus 15-18 degrees. In the Crimea and Krasnodar region will warm up to plus 22 degrees, in Adygea - up to plus 24.
   
   And this despite the fact that in a significant part of the territory of Russia, March according to the climatic canons is a winter month.
   
   The head of the situational center of Roshydromet Yuri Varakin said that in Moscow and the region, the Arctic zone of the Urals and Western Siberia, the air temperature in March will be above the climatic norm by 4-12 degrees.
   
   Meanwhile, experts of the Weather Center Phobos believe that the excess of the March temperature over the average values on the territory of the Russian Plain will be insignificant, and at the end of the month night frosts may return.
   
   
   
   
   
   In any case, during a sharp change in weather and concomitant jumps in atmospheric pressure, many people can face headache, exacerbation of vascular diseases, pain in the heart and joints.
   
   We should expect geomagnetic storms, the first powerful bursts of which will occur in March (4, 5, 19 and 28 March). We recommend that you do not plan anything for these days and, if possible, spend them at home in a calm atmosphere.
   
   
2. April
   If April is with water, then May will be with grass, so they used to say in the old days. It seems that April 2020 will not fail. Almost all month in the central and southern regions of the country will rain, sometimes very heavy.
   
   
   
   For example, in Kislovodsk, Essentuki, Pyatigorsk and Minvody in the period from 1 to 10 April may fall monthly rainfall.
   
   
   
   
   
   In the daytime, the air temperature will be kept within 5-8 degrees. Night cold snaps promise without frost, but their probability is not excluded. In the south of Russia, the daytime temperature will rise to 15-17 degrees. In the rest of the country, you can expect a significant warming from about the 20s.
   
   Long-term weather forecasts still, unfortunately, do not turn out to be perfectly accurate, but they help to optimally plan rest and household work on the garden plot, allowing you to enjoy as much as possible such a long-awaited spring warmth.
   
   
3. May
   Due to the collision of cold and warm air masses in May there will be many windy days, hurricanes may even hit the middle strip of Russia, which will be accompanied by heavy rains and thunder.
   
   
   
   In the second half of May it will be hot in the summer. It is expected that the air will warm up to plus 20-25, and in the sun even up to plus 30.
   
   

As Larisa Dolina sings, the most important thing is to have good weather in the house. Bad weather on the street can be survived with an umbrella.