Traps thinking. How to protect your mind from mistakes

Our mind is always ready plenty of traps for us. If we are not aware of them, these traps can seriously damage our ability to think rationally, leading us to wrong conclusions and foolish decisions.
Now you will learn about some dangerous pitfalls and ways to avoid them.

1. Braking trap - excessive trust first thought
"Are there more than Turkey's population of 35 million people? How do you think what is the population of Turkey? ».
The researchers asked the question a group of persons and population estimates of almost all parties did not exceed significantly the number of 35 million.
Then the question was asked a second group, but this time the starting number was 100 million. Though both numbers were selected at random, estimates the population of Turkey, "the 100 millionth" groups were, without exception, respectively, higher than the "35 millionth" group.
That is, those who were asked first about 35 million, and then asked to estimate the population of Turkey, gave answers about the numbers 35 million, while those who first asked about 100 million naming of about 100 million.
(For those interested: the whole of Turkey is home to about 78 million. Inhabitants).

Moral: starting, raw data may have a decisive influence on the entire further process your thoughts: initial impressions, thoughts, evaluations, or data can "anchor" to slow down the next thought.

This trap is particularly dangerous because it deliberately used in many situations, such as, for example, experienced sales, which at first will show us a more expensive product, "anchor" its price in our subconscious.

How to work with it:
Always consider the problem from different perspectives
Do not focus on the original, the starting point. Work with the problem before moving to the decision.
Reflect on their own, do not rush to consult with other
Get as much data and do as much as possible the conclusions themselves before you will fall under the influence of the "anchor" of other people.
Use as many sources for information
Collect more opinions on this subject and expand the boundaries of research. Not limited to a single point of view.

2. Trap Status Quo - the desire to preserve the order of things
In one experimental group were randomly distributed gifts: half of the participants received a decorative mugs, the other half - the big Swiss chocolate tiles.
Then they were told that they can no problems to exchange one gift to another. Logic tells us that at least half of the participants should be dissatisfied with their present and wish to exchange it, but in reality only 10% of participants made it!
We tend to act according to established patterns of behavior if we do not get positive incentives, we are inclined to change these patterns. Status quo automatically takes precedence over any other options.

How to work with it:
Consider the status quo just as another possible scenarios
Do not allow yourself to get into the flow of thoughts, enthrall you against the traditional way of thinking of others. Ask yourself, would you choose your current situation, if it was not the status quo.
Clearly understand their goals
Objectively assess the situation and keenly aware as to whether the current status of the achievement of your goals.
Do not exaggerate the severity of the effort required to reach your goals
Often these efforts are actually not as great as we tend to assume.

3. Traps sunk costs - protection of earlier decisions
You have booked a ticket to a football match without the right of return. And now comes the evening, which is assigned a game, you are dead tired and the window raging storm. You already regret that purchased the ticket, because, frankly, you're much more likely to have stayed at home, lit the fireplace and looked comfortably to the game on TV. What to do?
Maybe it's hard to accept, but in this case, to stay at home - the best option. The money for the ticket has not come back, no matter what option is ultimately you prefer: it is a sunk cost, and they should not influence your decision.

How to work with it:
Do not be afraid to make mistakes
Understand why the recognition of previously committed errors knocks you off track. No one is immune from mistakes, so do not do from this tragedy - it is better try to extract lessons from their mistakes in the future!
Listen to the opinions of people who have not been involved in the adoption of the old, erroneous decision
Find people emotionally dependent on previous decisions and ask their opinion.
Focus on goals
We make decisions, keeping in mind some goals. Not tied to a particular series of actions leading to these goals; always consider the best opportunities to achieve their goals.

4. Traps confirmation - when we take wishful thinking
Do you feel that the dollar will soon fall, and now it's time to sell dollars. To verify their assumptions, you call your friend who just sold dollars to find out its causes.
Congratulations, you have fallen into the trap needs to be confirmed: searching for information, which, in your opinion, is likely to prove to be your own original suggestion - and, at the same time carefully avoiding information that challenges your expectations.
Such a distorted perception of reality not only affects where you will find the necessary facts but also on how you interpret the data: we are much less critical of the arguments supporting our initial beliefs and resisting the facts inconsistent with them.
No matter how objective we ourselves feel when we receive our original decision, our brains - intuitively - we immediately switches to alternative options, forcing us to question the almost always your primary option.

How to work with it:
Work with conflicting information
Examine carefully all the facts. Do not ignore data that contradict your original beliefs. Clearly imagine what you seek: find alternatives or soothe yourself, reiterating its primary assumption!
Stand on the "devil's advocate»
(Devil's Advocate - panelist, deliberately defending the position that he does not adhere to, in order to provoke a lively discussion and to identify all possible defects opposite view).
Organize a discussion with someone whose opinion you value, against the decision that you were initially inclined to accept. If you do not have such a person be engaged in building themselves counterarguments. Always conscientiously study the opposite point of view (taking, by the way, into account other traps that await your thoughts about which we are talking about here).
Do not ask leading questions
When to someone for advice, ask neutral questions to prevent others simply confirming your point of view. The question "How can I do with a dollar?" Better than "Should I sell dollars as quickly as possible?»

5. Traps incomplete information - reconsider your suggestion
Ivan - introvert (a man focused on his inner world). We know that it is either the librarian or the seller. What he is, in your opinion, it is with the greatest probability?
Of course, here there is a great temptation to immediately decide that he - a librarian. Well, in fact, did not we used to think of sellers rather unceremoniously, if not brash personalities? However, such a justification may be fundamentally wrong (or at least inaccurate).
Such a conclusion would ignore the fact that the sellers exceed the librarians at about 100 to 1. Before we examined traits of Ivan, we have a 1% chance that he is a librarian. (This means that even if all the librarians - introverts, among sellers of introverts, at least 1%, which increases the chances of Ivan has to be a salesman).
This is just a small example of the disregard for the simple element of the available data can guide our discussion in a completely wrong direction.

How to work with it:
Clarify for yourself your assumptions
Do not think of the problem as it looks at first sight. Remember that for every problem you first use the implicit, ie implied no explicit information - your own assumptions. In fact, it is not so difficult to verify the accuracy of their beliefs, but you have them clear idea.
Always prefer the evidence simplistic mind dies
Our prejudices - such as stereotypes - can be helpful in many situations, but we must always be on guard not to overestimate them. If you have a choice, always give preference to facts.

6. Trap solidarity - everybody does
In a series of experiments, the researchers asked students in classrooms rather simple question, and, quite naturally, most of the students gave the correct answers.
In the other group, they were asked the same questions, but this time as students were actors who were responsible deliberately wrong. Since then, the students have become much more to answer these questions correctly, based on the example set by the research assistants.
This "herd instinct" - to varying degrees - there at all. Even if we are desperately trying not to acknowledge the actions of others affect us greatly.
We are afraid to look silly when we fail, along with many others, it is not considered shameful, but when we fail in splendid isolation, all the bumps for the errors fall down only on us. We are always under pressure from members of the group, the group to which we belong, aimed at trying to make us look like at all.
This tendency to be like everyone else, and it is notoriously successfully operated in the advertisement. We often sell goods for his valuable qualities, but because it is popular, if all together, en masse buy it, why should not I join them?
Gregarious solidarity as one of the reasons why so if some book topped the bestseller list, it "firmly" and for a long time. Because people prefer to buy what to buy "everything».

How to work with it:
Reduce the influence of other
After analyzing the information, free of the opinions of others - this is the first thing to do. This is the best way to make a decision without being subject to the influence of the unconscious popular trends.
Beware of 'public guardianship »
Always sound an alarm when someone tries to have something convincing, arguing his insistence mainly popular subject matter, not its real value.
Have the courage
Be firm in its intention to overcome the pressure of foreign and defend their point of view, despite its unpopularity. Do not be afraid to point out that the emperor is naked!

7. Traps illusion of control - a shot in the dark
Have you noticed that the vast majority of lottery players prefer to choose their own numbers instead of having to use the "Auto-Select", which sometimes offers automatic (ie button, choose the numbers for you)? Note. we are talking about lotteries abroad.
Everyone knows that no matter how we choose any number, the chance of winning this is not reduced, so why among the players so tenacious desire to choose their own numbers?
Curiously, even in the situation that we are totally unable to control, we still have an irrational belief that they can influence the outcome. We just like to feel that the situation is under our control.
Of course, the easiest way to illustrate this on the example of the trap of gambling, but the tendency to overestimate their ability to control the situation affects almost all aspects of our daily lives.
Unfortunately, in contrast to the example of the game of lottery above, the consequences of the decisions we make in real life, complex and interrelated. It is always difficult to assess the extent to which we are responsible for the results, which can then get.
While some of the effects are obviously the result of our own solutions, others, no doubt, are beyond the ability of our direct control.

How to work with it:
Understand that an accident is an integral part of life
Although it is difficult to imagine, much less acknowledge, many things happen on occasion - in the sense that they do not depend on your efforts.
Take responsibility for those things that you really can influence, but remember that in many cases there is little you can change. How presumptuous to expect that the situation will is subject to your control, it is better to consciously think through their actions in the case of any of its development.
Beware prejudice
Think how often your decisions based on the premise that you can not explain. Make it explicit and implicit expose its thorough investigation - instead groundless hope to control what you do not understand.

8. Traps faith in coincidence
We will discuss the theory of probability

John Reilly (John Riley) - a legend. He won the lottery, which had one chance in a million - twice! But the likelihood of such an event is already one in a trillion, that means one of two things - either a lottery - it's a show and sell or John got in sight of Lady Luck. Agree?
In fact, neither one nor the other. Let's solve a simple problem: if for a few years in 1000 to win the lottery will continue to play and play at least 100 times, trying to repeat the "miracle" of winning, there is not such a slight chance - 10% - that someone from They succeed.
This means that the "miracle" is not only possible - if some effort - its probability increases to the level of inevitability.
Another classic example: in a group of 23 randomly selected people at least one pair has the same date of birth (month and day) with a probability of more than 50% (the so-called birthday paradox). The mathematical reality is contrary to the narrow-minded convictions, namely: the majority of people will consider the share of probability in this case at 50%).
That is what the theory of probability.

How to work with it:
Do not rely excessively on an instinctive assessment of the situation
Even if this method of solving the problem load several times, once it reaches the target. Make sure you have an objective opinion about their instinctive premonitions or clear about the consequences of their confidence in them.
cm. book "Fooled by Randomness".
Beware assess the chances of "after the event»
It is one thing to consider the fact that someone won the lottery twice - in retrospect. And it is quite another thing when a particular person - selected before the results - wins: it is, in fact, can be regarded as one chance in a trillion, and will cause to doubt the legality of the lottery.