Will 3 photos and a lot of text
This week would have turned 90 years of outstanding, but, alas, now-forgotten economist Mark Golan.
01. The Soviet Union flashed as the cheap money. Fulfilled the prophecy of Mark Golan.
In doing after school on the evening department of the Plekhanov Institute, I got in the USSR State Committee secretary. Sometimes I have committed to print materials of the Scientific Council. It was headed by Boris Sukharevsky, deputy chairman of the State Committee of. For many years he was a member of the economic elite of the country, wrote reports Brezhnev. Therefore Council could invite anyone, without fear of consequences, and oblique views.
In 1987, he was invited to hold a meeting of the Scientific Council of the Doctor of Economics Mark Golan. Twenty Blonde macroeconomic problems of the economy and so on. N. Was more than up to the Milky Way. But the text of the report on the economic prospects of the Soviet Union, which I typed was so unusual that shocked even blonde.
- Much later, seriously go into business, I accidentally found a book of the Golan "What awaits us in 2015?". Published in 1992. Although the manuscript was submitted to the publisher in 1987. In the USSR, the controversial book publishing for a long time to rest up, went to the reviewers, the censors. The report was actually Goskomtrud theses prophetic book. I'll quote it, and you will understand what shocked blonde Golan.
He proceeded from the fact that capitalism is much more efficient use of resources in socialism, the production of various goods and services. But socialism is better support social justice, can effectively solve the problem of mobilization that is important not the consumption of resources and the achievement of goals in a certain period.
- Type industrialization, space exploration, the Great Patriotic ...
- Yes. But it is not impressive from the point of filling the shelves. Soviet scientist made seditious anti-Soviet conclusion: "Can not a socialist system will become a self-developing system. Such it can only be exposed to the outside ... the country would have become a raw materials appendage of the world capitalist economy. A resource-based economy is highly dependent on the world market, and its development is not due to an internal clock and external reasons ».
Remember, this was written in 1987, when the Kremlin launched a restructuring, improving the socialist system!
"In light of this, it can be expected that the switch to capitalism completely upset the functioning of the economy of the Soviet Union - has warned the Golan. - The country will be affected a large-scale unemployment, it will suffer from the growth of social ills, falling fertility rates, rising crime and mass emigration. The plight of the economy will be accompanied by national disintegration and the actual disintegration of the country.
Therefore I hope that the introduction of private property and market relations in the Soviet Union would be the remedy to address the economic ills, profoundly mistaken. The shift towards capitalism does not bode well for the Soviet Union. All of the current economic system of the country would be destroyed, and instead of it there symbiosis of raw material monopolies, TNK enclaves and backward small-scale production. The transition to capitalism will bring the country's economy for a long time out of service, and in its effects, it can be equated to a disaster, a disaster ».
- And so it was with the Soviet Union. Indeed the Prophet!
- But it was not a mere prophecy. All of the report of the Golan thoroughly substantiated the results of his economic and mathematical modeling, complex formulas. As it is now seeing its model proved a visionary and accurately describe what happened to the country in the coming decades.
Report Sukharevsky so impressed that he gave it to the chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers Nikolai Ryzhkov, comrade Gorbachev for Gorbachev. No reaction. Sukharevsky not calmed down, he sent the report to one of the advisors of Gorbachev - Shatalin. He took seriously the material and offered to publish in the main party journal "Communist».
As a result, according to his friends Golan, it took many hours of conversation editor of the economy "communists" Yegor Gaidar Mark Mikhailovich. Gaidar popularly explained the doctor of economic sciences, that he knows nothing of any macroeconomics or in a market economy, or in the simulation ... Yegor refused to publish an article in the "Communist" and put his hand to the fact that for the Golan has a reputation for eccentric and dilettante whose works do not deserve attention.
This was one of the reasons why it is important manuscript as much as 5 years lain in publishing. Ironically, the book was a great extent contributed to the chairman of the Russian Supreme Council Khasbulatov.
- Nothing strange not to see Elena. Khasbulatov in the Soviet era was a well-known economist, Doctor of Science, headed the Department of World Economy at the famous Plekhanov Institute. In the restructuring, published in "Komsomolskaya Pravda" article loud, calling the state buys the West Jeans for pennies and resell their citizens at exorbitant prices, mainly speculators. The editorial then it's more than ten bags of letters. I myself was preparing reference to the Central Committee of this response. And Khasbulatov did not like Gaidar.
- Unfortunately, the book came out late in the Golan. Even his worst prognosis come true, the Soviet Union collapsed. Although Mark Mikhailovich gave options for conservation and the Soviet Union. But this last case.
Multinationals rule states?
- Even more amazing predictions Golan mid-80s with respect to capitalism in the XXI century, - says Elena Larina. - Capitalism presupposes growth and market expansion. Without this, it is stagnating. Golan said that there are three barriers to the development of capitalism.
FIRST - demography. Calculations Mark Mikhailovich, which he spent with Sergei Kapitsa in the 70 - 80 years, showed: from the '90s mode of reproduction unchanged from what it was in the world before tens of thousands of years. As you reach a certain stage of economic development in developed countries, the birth rate will fall sharply, and the structure of the population shift towards older age groups. Which, incidentally, is especially evident in the 90's and zero years.
SECOND - reducing the efficiency of resource use. Every year for additional growth they have to spend more and more. Will the decline in capital productivity in developed countries will increase labor costs, and so on. N. Since resources are limited, inevitably will fall and economic growth. Golan predicted that the global economic system will come up with ways to reduce costs. Will begin the search for new raw materials and gratuitous labor.
Capitalism would have to be involved in its turnover of commodity resources of the USSR, and perhaps Africa. In order to ensure a significant and long-term savings on labor, capitalism urgently carry out a massive transfer of production from America and Europe to Asia. Most likely, China, South Korea and India. As it is now we can see, these two forecast Golan completely justified.
The third obstacle - the habitat and resources. Capacity of production rests on the continuous deterioration of the environment. This is compounded by the predicted increase in the Golan unstable weather conditions at the turn of the century.
- Yeah, everything is now seen and felt - the climate was something wrong. It turns out that even the current extreme weather events predicted Golan ?!
- Sorry, I predicted. So it will be more accurate. Mark Mikhailovich was a brilliant scientist, not a predictor. Plus everything else massive resource extraction will cause, he wrote, that at the beginning of the XXI century there will need to engage in trafficking had never used minerals located in an extremely unfavorable in terms of natural conditions of the area. But this capitalist economy is not ready.
- Again in the top ten! The so-called shale revolution in the West, is stalled, the impending World War in the Arctic for the minerals, which many analysts say cautiously ... But the mobilization of capitalism tight.
- Since neither the first nor the third factor, capitalism can not do anything, he will try to take advantage of all the power associated with the second factor, concluded Mark Mikhailovich. This means to crush the Soviet Union to engage in a system of China and other Asian countries.
- Union crushed China involved!
- But even in these conditions, the possibility of global capitalism are not unlimited. According to the forecast of Mark Mikhailovich, with about 1985 to 2010, he will continue to develop, although the pace of economic growth will always fall. And since 2010 the world capitalist system will go into a deep systemic crisis, out of which in the framework of the market economy will not be.
- Fantastic! The global crisis began even a little earlier - in 2008. And no end in sight. What is the way out of the crisis saw the Golan?
- Forecast Mark Mikhailovich - the output will be found in the introduction of the scale of the world economy of centralized planning and programming. As well as the displacement of market practices in the most important industries and sectors routine or, in modern parlance, overbearing regulation. The main resource will be no money, power and information.
- Something like a secret world government that we are frightened conspiracy theorists? Or the return of socialism with his command and administrative management of the economy?
- About World Government, "backstage" Golan never wrote. In his books constantly mentioned something else - merging the state with the largest system of transnational corporations, the intertwining of these corporations together. Last year, the whole world thundered work of Swiss researchers, who found that only 147 of interrelated corporations now virtually control the world economy.
As for the return to the command-administrative management, the Golan wrote: planning for the future will be carried out through both direct jobs, as well as through state and supranational intervention in the economy by means of financial and credit levers. Just the fact that we have recently seen in Greece, and now - in Cyprus. They were given a clear, perfectly planned directive.
If we think that it is destiny only of small countries, it is again misleading. What kind of market it is possible to say when the Fed to issue interest-free basis approaching it the largest banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup long-term loans is not even in hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars. This command-administrative system in its pure form. The only difference - it does not implementing the State Planning Commission in Moscow, and the Federal Reserve in New York.
- Whether more will be!
- It's funny that at a time when the Golan was developing its own models and methods of forecasting, the party leadership and the government of the USSR has created a Institute of Systems Analysis. It was intended to connect the Soviet economists, systems analysts to works of the famous Club of Rome. While the reports of the Club of Rome, prepared by teams of Forrester and Meadows, said the whole world.
It took 30 years. None of the Club of Rome's predictions did not come true. But Golan forecasts based on them developed scientific methods and models have been very accurate.
As is usually the case with the prophets, Mark Golan died without recognition in very cramped conditions.
02.oblozhka book published even during the Soviet Union.
FROM THE DOSSIER
Mark M. Golan (1923 - 1997). Academic economists, the disciple of the outstanding Soviet Academician VS Nemchinov. Organizer globalist research at the Institute of African Studies. The main theme - the application of mathematical methods in economic analysis, the study chenie global challenges of our time, long-term forecasting of the world economy, individual countries and regions. The main work - "What awaits us in 2015? (anti-utopias economic outlook) "," The future of the world economy and the prospects for Russia: a modern vision versus the postulates of Marx "," The Rise and Fall of the global economy ».
As I was looking for relatives Golan
Details of the last years of his life scientist Larin did not know. Shocked by her story, I dug into the all-knowing Internet. Alas, no pictures of the prophet, nor the precise biographical data ...
Is that one of the writer met the phrase "who emigrated to the West Jewish economist Mark Golan even predicts that in the US in the coming century reign neototalitarnoe state with a planned production and distribution." Connected familiar omniscient economists, even a global conspiracy theorist living in the United States.
Information zero. Larina in exile did not believe it. "These rumors deliberately spread enemies scientist." She also joined the search. Specialist competitive intelligence found out that on May 31 the Golan would have turned 90. So, no wonder I'm so tense hearing in mid-May her story. That is a worthy occasion to tell the country about the great prophet is not recognized Gaidar in his native homeland, to pay tribute to the amazing scientist forecaster.
A separate story, we went with Helen to the same family. His only daughter seems to be working at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Find the institute faculty. "Marina Golan died 10 years ago - I was told. - She had a son, but there is no connection with it. " We got an address. I walked around the house three times near the metro station "University".
Entrance one need an apartment with a three-digit number was missing. "The Golan is not live," - said the concierge. Seeing my dejected face, she carefully scanned the entire list of tenants. There are no such! Yet it was the same house. Just give each apartment number, and the grandson of Mark Alexei Mikhailovich is another name.
He said that his grandfather was a great patriot of Russia and never thought about emigrating. Although there were plenty of opportunities to stay in the West. He is from the first edition of MGIMO, spent many years abroad in the diplomatic service.
Once Beria called on the night talking to Moscow, the Soviet consul in Copenhagen, "What does personal friend of the Golan to Denmark withdrew from the Benelux?" The Consul said, "the Benelux - the union of Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg. Denmark never been there. " Beria did not like the answer. One big security officer bluntly told the consul's wife, saying that you have to go with Marc from Denmark to Siberia. "Siberia is also the Russian land!" - She replied. But cost.
In 60th Golan worked in the United Nations in New York. My wife taught English to children of diplomats. She met with Kerensky. He said he did not escape from the Winter Palace in a dress. Many more interesting things heard grandson grandmother Rita. A grandfather of a long work abroad is not covered. Why grandson realized later found in his desk document KGB lieutenant colonel. Mark Mikhailovich worked in the West, scientific and economic intelligence.
Returning to Moscow in the mid-60s, he devoted himself to science at the Institute of Africa of the USSR. It has developed its own unique methods of economic forecasting, he defended his thesis, doctorate. He became a professor. And academics missed. As critical of the all-powerful teaching of Marx and did not hide it. Defending his views, forecasts, earned two heart attacks. He died in Moscow on 22 November 1997. Cancer.
They say the trigger for this deadly disease is often a lot of stress. Tom is much evidence. Mark Mikhailovich felt a lot of stress in dashing the nineties. His eyes come true predictions on which shrugged off the power in the 80s. Union really collapsed, Russia swept the shaft crime, falling birth rates, mass unemployment ...
And those who are still working, often were paid in kind - towels, bathrobes, clay kittens. And they trade them along the Russian roads.
Scientists, engineers became "shuttle traders» ...
And then a new Russian finally hoisted the oil and gas needle. But we live.
03.na photos Mark M. Golan
Recently, photos, thank you did not break the post