How to make decisions when the future is uncertain: the science of choice under uncertainty

Navigating the Fog of Opportunities: 7 Strategies for Choosing Without Guarantees

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman found that 92% of people overestimate their ability to predict the consequences of decisions. But current neuroscience research offers new tools for dealing with uncertainty. How to turn fear of the unknown into fuel for growth?

Algorithms of Choice in the Age of Turbulence

1. The Principle of Quantum Responsibility
Harvard professor R. Kennedy suggests replacing the question “What if I’m wrong?” with “How will I correct the mistake?” This reduces amygdala activity by 40% (fMRI study, 2023).
Practice: Make a “rollback card” – three specific steps to minimize the consequences for each option.



2. Chess Clock technique
Alternate analytical and intuitive thinking: 15 minutes of data tables → 5 minutes of meditation → repetition. The method increases prediction accuracy by 27% (MIT, 2022).

3. The Law of Reverse Effects
The University of Toronto experiment found that decisions made with 70% confidence are more likely to lead to success than 100% guaranteed options. The paradox lies in the flexibility of implementation.

4. Emotional arbitrage
Create a worry scale from 1 to 10. If the indicator is higher than 7, postpone the decision for 2 hours. Neurotransmitters will stabilize (Journal of Neuroscience, 2021).



5. Scenario modelling 2.0
Instead of the standard “best/worst case”, analyze the options according to the scheme:
Baseline scenario (50% probability)
Black Swan (10%)
Hidden Opportunity (40%)

6. The principle of reversibility
According to Professor R. Taleb’s theory, “The solution must be antifragile – to grow from unintended consequences.” Can you turn failure into a new skill?

7. Timekeeping of indecision
Set a timer: 7 minutes for simple decisions, 70 minutes for vital ones. McKinsey’s statistics show that 68 percent of successful CEOs use a tight time frame.

Toolkit of the modern decider

• Eisenhower Matrix 2.0: Add the Degree of Uncertainty axis
• ► Choice Architect: A neural network that analyzes your cognitive distortions
• ► Blind Resume Technique: Describe the problem as if it were someone else’s

Glossary
Cognitive dissonance
Mental stress when conflicting knowledge or beliefs clash
Availability heuristic
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easy to remember
Antifragility
The property of systems is strengthened under the influence of stress and chaos



As Steve Jobs said, “You can’t connect the dots by looking forward; you can only connect them by looking back.” Decision-making in the fog of uncertainty is the art of creating dots that you want to connect in the future.