Thirty years ago, Andrei Sakharov tried to predict the future of mankind
Sergei Nehamkina

May 17, 1974 Andrei Sakharov finished article "Peace in half a century." It was written at the request of the American magazine "The Saturday Review". The dissident opposition to the "father of the hydrogen bomb" admired the Soviet system, but the question arose - what in return? In "The World in half a century" Sakharov is explained. Not just thinking about the prospects of scientific and technological progress - expounded his vision of world order. "After 50 years, - he wrote - I guess a global information system (VIS), which will make available to everyone at any time the contents of any book, any article, getting any help (...) all the barriers disappear exchange of information between countries and people. " It's only 30 years old - and the World Wide Web, the Internet exists. This prediction came true Sakharov. And the rest?

The world half a century of Sakharov

Problems. In 1974, "factors that will shape the world," Sakharov believed: population growth in the world (by 2024 - more than 7 billion people); the depletion of natural resources (oil, soil fertility, clean water, etc.); violation of the balance of nature and the human environment. At the same time, he predicted a jump in scientific and technological progress. But the "scientific and technological progress does not bring happiness, unless supplemented with (...) changes in the social and moral life of humanity."

The main danger Sakharov saw the possibility of the death of civilization in a thermonuclear war. However, even after they have escaped a major war, humanity may perish, exhausting force in inter-ethnic and inter-state conflicts. Among other dangers: the decline of private and public morality, the growth of criminal tendencies, terrorism, alcoholism, drug addiction.

Exit. The Economy. According to Sakharov, destructive tendencies must be confronted: overcoming the collapse of the world into opposing groups of states; the process of rapprochement (convergence) of the socialist and capitalist systems; demilitarization; protection of human rights; social progress and democratization; strengthening of personal moral principle in man. Economy "mixed type, which connects the maximum flexibility, freedom, and social achievements and opportunities of global regulation" - the best, according to Sakharov system.

Exit. Policy. "It's great to be the role of international organizations - the UN, UNESCO and others, in which I would like to see the germ of a world government is alien to any purposes other than human." On the way to this goal is required to make a number of steps: assistance to developing countries, the creation of "international advisory bodies, watching the observance of human rights in each country"; the admission of such organizations as the Red Cross, the World Health Organization, "Amnesty International", where we can assume narushniya rights (detention and "mental prison"); "Democratic solution to the problem of freedom of movement" - emigration, remigration, personal travel (this is Sakharov, one of the first and most important conditions). "The basis of all international institutions should become the Universal Declaration of Human Rights."


ST and RT. Sakharov believed that in 2024 will go full speed the formation of two types of areas - the "working area" (RT) and "protected area" (ST). In the "work area" (smaller in size and with much greater population density) "conducted intensive agriculture, nature is completely transformed for industrial purposes, the entire industry is concentrated with giant automatic and semiautomatic plants." "Forbidden territory" - a place where people restore power. "They (...) working with his hands and head, read a book, meditate. They live in tents or in houses built as the home of their ancestors. They hear the sound of a mountain stream, or simply enjoy the tranquility, beauty of wildlife, forest, sky and clouds. "

Cities earth. According to Sakharov, the majority of the world's population will live in megacities located in Tajikistan. "In the central parts - high-rise buildings, mountains (...) with artificial climate, lighting, automated kitchens, holographic walls-landscapes". Most of the territory of the city-2024 will occupy the "suburbs, stretching for tens of kilometers (...) - with detached houses, with gardens, a kitchen garden, children's institutions, athletic fields, bathing pools (...), with a silent and convenient public transportation, clean air. "

City flying and ground. A natural extension of the RT Sakharov will be "flying cities" - satellites, which perform important business functions. "They concentrated solar power, perhaps, a significant part of nuclear and thermonuclear installations with radiant cooling energy refrigerators (...); This enterprise of vacuum metallurgy, greenhouse farming, etc .; This space research laboratories. " Another trend - the creation of "underground cities - to sleep, entertainment, transportation and maintenance of underground mining."

Agriculture. Sakharov believed that the agriculture of the future - an artificial soil sverhproduktivnaya; copious irrigation; in the northern regions - the greenhouse farms using the backlight, soil heating, electrophoresis and other methods of exposure. Plus - the "green revolution", ensuring the achievement of genetics and breeding. "New forms of agriculture - sea, bacterial, microalgal, mushrooms and the like." Maybe - agriculture in the Antarctic and on other planets.

Industry. Companies with a closed cycle without harmful wastes and litter. Automation, the flexibility and tunability of production. "Ideally, you can think of (...) on overcoming the socially harmful (...) phenomena of artificial stimulation" sverhsprosa "which now take place in the developed countries."

Communication and information services. "In the future, may be later than 50 years, I guess creation of a global information system (VIS), which will make available to everyone at any time the contents of any book, any article, getting any help (...) But the true historical role VIS is that all barriers disappear exchange of information between countries and people. "

Energy. "Within 50 years save the value of energy based on the combustion of coal (...) with a full absorption of hazardous waste." At the same time - the development of nuclear energy, by the end of this period - fusion energy.

Transport. "In place of the car (...) comes to battery wagon walking" legs "does not violate the sward and do not require an asphalt road. For the main freight and passenger traffic - helium blimps with nuclear-powered and high-speed trains with nuclear engine on the platforms and in the tunnels. "

Scientific achievements. In 1974, Sakharov assumed that after 50 years, scientists finally have an opportunity of theoretical modeling by "computers with more memory and speed." Examples of problems that can be solved thanks to the development of computer technology, "forecast (...) calculations of organic molecules, elementary biophysical processes, calculations of" multidimensional "manufacturing process, for example, in metallurgy and chemical industries, the difficult economic and sociological calculations .. . »

"Revolutionary" discovery. "It may be achieved success in the synthesis of substances having superconducting properties at room temperature. Such a discovery would mean a revolution (...) in many areas of technology. For example, transport (superconducting rails on which the carriage slides on frictionless magnetic "cushion".

The invention of new materials. "In the offices of the future will be applied cost-effective and easily manageable artificial" muscles "of the polymer having the property of contractility (...) will be created highly sensitive analyzers organic and inorganic impurities in the air and water, working on the principle of artificial" nose "and the like & quot ;.

Kosmos. For Sakharov space exploration - one of the main directions of scientific research. "I guess the extension attempts to establish communication with alien civilizations. (...) Inaction in this direction, despite the lack of any guarantee of success, it would be unreasonable (...) probably by the end of the fiftieth anniversary of start economic development of the lunar surface. "

Thirty years later it came true, did not come true, come true tomorrow

At the request of "Izvestia" commented Dr. Sakharov forecasts of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Head. Department of the Institute of History of Science and Technology Gregory idlis.

ST, RT and the earthly city. To work in the city, and have a house in a quiet place in nature - and strive to live today's wealthy people. I think the trend will continue. And tomorrow's metropolis - it's about what Sakharov wrote: city plus suburbs giant. There is another problem with the development of civilization "working area" will inevitably grow - and it is clear that due to the "reserved".

City flying and ground. Whether they will in 20 years? Hardly. "Working area" of the Earth soon will be expanded at the expense of artificial islands in the ocean (the way in which the Japanese are going).

Agriculture. The "green revolution"? Absolutely. New types of farming? Maybe. Selskhozosvoenie North and Antarctica - no. What for? A more promising way - the development of deserts. But it will take to solve the problem of seawater desalination.

Industry. It develops "on Sakharov" - closed-loop automation. There is simply no other way. Overcoming "sverhsprosa"? The most important task, but not as the Manufacturing and economic as social, philosophical. To solve it you must, otherwise no technology will not save civilization will drive themselves to a standstill.

Communication and information services. Appeared Internet. One hundred percent hit!

Energy. Here complicated. The value of "traditional" energy will continue for a long time, although the reserves of coal, oil, gas is definitely reduced. Nuclear power? The problem of nuclear waste is unlikely to solve by 2020. Thermonuclear? 30 years ago, it seemed - it was about to happen. But so far without success. Maybe in 20 years - the first real achievement. I think more intensively will develop solar and wind energy.

Transport. "The wagons on legs", of course, long wheel does not supersede. High-speed trains - is already a reality. Atomic engine they do not need, 'synthesis of substances with superconductivity "at normal temperature, it is quite real. Airships? The idea is good, but not demanded. It is difficult to say whether tomorrow will claim.

Scientific achievements. Sakharov forecasts on the development of computer technology more than offset. Here we are waiting for a much larger success - including the creation of artificial intelligence.

The invention of new materials. The artificial "muscles" artificial nose - well, quite likely. Anything created by nature, sooner or later manage to repeat and improve.

Kosmos. Of course, the Sakharov human rights. And the search for extraterrestrial civilizations certainly will be - like a tail aim to solve other problems. And "economic development" of the moon in 20 years - is real. Not in the sense that there is a potato plant, and to create, for example, an intermediate station for flights to other planets.

The restructuring of global warming, September 11 ...

And some of you will not guess Andrei Sakharov

In "The World in half a century" is not a word about:

 - The possibility of restructuring in the USSR (started 12 years); the collapse of the communist system; disintegration of the USSR into independent states; the collapse of the "Eastern bloc" (though perhaps context of the article suggests that in one form or another all of it has already happened);

 - Problems, which in turn give rise to freedom of movement on the planet (Muslims in France, etc.);

 - The likelihood of civilizational fault that generated the current "hot spots" (Yugoslavia, the Middle East, Chechnya);

 - Global warming and the threat of climate change on the entire continent.

 - Physicist Sakharov did not foresee the risk of a Chernobyl-type accident.

We suggest the reader to continue the list.

Roy Medvedev, historian: "Calculate the future is impossible»

 - The energy crisis of the early 1970s forced the Western intellectuals to advance the thesis - the world is finite in time. This was reflected in the forecasts of the Club of Rome (the informal association of scientists). On the basis of the then information and techniques they counted, that is, if the trend of the 70 remain. The picture came out apocalyptic: after so many years run out of oil, gas, coal, environmental disaster begins. Need to do something. The political situation of optimism did not add: "cold war", the "third world" tougher declared themselves in China - Mao ... There was a public demand forecasts, and, as usual during the mass of gloom, the optimistic predictions of demand were not.

The Soviet Union did not hurt, on the contrary - we even won, having the opportunity to sell oil to the West. However, European sentiment echoes reached us. I have the then discussion on the subject of our scientists - Ambartsumova, Bestuzhev -Lady - the whole collection. Sakharov forecast - from the same series, simply because of the unique personality of Andrei Dmitrievich he gained special significance. By the way, a little earlier there was the famous "Letter to the Soviet Leaders" Solzhenitsyn. Also, based on the conclusions of the Club of Rome, and considering war with China real, he offered to give up communist ideology urgently develop the north-east of the USSR and gradually shift the country back ... That two such big personalities almost simultaneously and independently attended to similar problems, - significant.

 - How do you assess the Sakharov predictions today?

 - Let's start with what seemed most dangerous. Environmental problems of the island, but, oddly enough, mankind has adapted to it. Up to a global catastrophe, I think, is still far. Generally, when the crisis in a decade has resolved themselves members of the Club of Rome have come to recognize that many have not considered.

Early in my opinion, to talk about the depletion of natural resources - open new fields, new technologies ... The theoretical danger of nuclear war remains, but really it is not expected. Small wars are constantly, but do not cause the global crisis. The war in Iraq have affected your life?

The economic structure in a number of countries in Western Europe can be in a certain sense be considered an example of convergence: on one hand - the market, on the other - a set of social guarantees. But social progress in Europe - the result of the socialist governments of certain states. Somewhere these successes more somewhere less. This is us in the Soviet Union when the West seemed something unified. Today it is clear - Sweden is not like the US, England, Japan.

Before a world government is still very far away. Of course, the European countries joined together - together is easier to resist the pressure to protect the interests. But I would say most of the forced-fit of the defensive than on the voluntary-unification.

 - And the idea of ​​a world government? It's not only Sakharov put forward, but other prominent scientists, Einstein, for example ...

 - You know, any forecast bears the stamp of personality, making this forecast. Sakharov, Einstein - great physics. They lived in a world of smart, sympathetic intellectuals in the world, where there are significant national and religious differences, where Russian scientist will readily understand the US or China, where the mind and talent all earned roughly the same material level. Remember Akademgorodok! A thought: if our environment could be organized so why not offer the rest of this model? After all, what divides people - borders, faith, origin - so irrational! Optimism technocrats - in a good way. Solzhenitsyn - a different story. His youth was in an environment of aggression to it: the war, the camp link, illness, writing ... clandestine form such a "priest Habakkuk" - strong, unyielding. He offered a way out, "Old Believers": leave the hermitage!

However, what I'm about others. Sam was in the 80 th, it seems, at the request of the Austrian magazine tried to predict the future of the USSR. I do not guess! And this is natural - I'm a socialist by conviction, the way in which the country has gone, in a nightmare could not foresee.

 - It turns out an interesting thing. The Company is waiting forecasts, because it's always interesting. Politicians are waiting forecasts, because they need to know what to expect tomorrow. The smartest people give their time forecasts - and miss!

 - But it is impossible to calculate in advance the future. 90 percent of the factors that determine the development of history - spontaneous, uncontrollable. You can calculate a single trend for the next day - and the next day everything will be different.



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