Forecasts for the next century

How to change the world a century later? Two promising British futurologist Ian Pearce and Patrick Tucker, was rated on a 10-point scale options achievements of human civilization. Latest date of execution of the forecast - in 2112.

Sovereign states will disappear, it will be replaced by a world government
Ian Pearce: Nice try, but it is unlikely. In contrast, the number of nation states increase. In the near future, wealthy citizens and rich corporations will seek to buy up areas of the world ocean to create your own island states in international waters.
Patrick Tucker: Chance 2 of 10.
Thanks to the advances of genetics, we will be able to create people with the highest level of intelligence, having immortality
SP: Chance of 9 out of 10. Direct communication with a computer brain will give people immortality in the practical sense of the word, however, and genetic modification will result in a significant prolongation of life for as long as the electronic immortality will not become accessible to all at a reasonable price.
PT: It is possible. The idea that a scientific breakthrough in genetics, biotechnology and artificial intelligence will expand the boundaries of the human mind and allow our mind to a great extent overcome death, sometimes called a singularity.

California becomes the first state to be released from the US
SP: The probability of 8 out of 10. Already, there are signs that California will seek to secede from the Union State, a trend that could worsen by the end of the century. The basis of this phenomenon lies a huge difference in wealth between the states and the reluctance of the inhabitants of the richer states to fund poorer districts.

Will be introduced single world currency
SP: The probability of 8 out of 10. Already, we see electronic money that are used throughout, and this trend will continue. It is possible that by the middle of this century there will be only a few regional physical currency, plus a global electronic currency. By the end of the century it will become the sole.
PT: Hardly. In fact, the trend in this field is directed in the opposite direction. The Internet makes possible new forms of exchange of goods and services. Therefore, the number of different types of currency to rise soon.

Antarctica loses the status of reserved territory
SP: The probability of 8 out of 10. The temptation to use this continent reserved for the extraction of mineral resources is too strong. Mankind will go to it, provided strict compliance with environmental regulations.
PT: It is possible. But before that, we will witness the development of the Arctic. In the coming decades, the struggle for control over natural resources in the Arctic will be a major political challenge for the Nordic countries and the whole of humanity. If successful, it will be the turn solutions and Antarctica.

It will be a direct connection between the human brain and the computer
SP: The probability of 10 out of 10. For many, this will be a reality by 2050. By 2075 most of the inhabitants of developed countries will benefit from the computer or other enhancers of brain functions.

In the oceans will operate thousands of farms that will produce food on an unprecedented scale
SP: The probability of 10 out of 10. We have to feed 10 billion people, and the planet does not have the resources to do so. On these farms, the ocean will be grown not only fish, but also algae, which will be used for food and fuel.
PT: It is possible. According to Dennis Bushnell, a leading specialist research center of NASA Langley, seaweed, which will be genetically modified to absorb large amounts of nitrogen from the atmosphere, will free up 68% of the fresh water that humanity is now spending on agriculture.

The transfer of thoughts from a distance becomes a reality
SP: The probability of 10 out of 10. Telepathy will be one of the usual forms of increased functionality of the brain. Perception of ideas and transfer them to the distance will become as commonplace that keeping thoughts on computer networks.
PT: It is possible. Artificial telepathy now seems fantastic, but it is very real, if by thought transference to understand the transmission of electrical signals of the brain.

We will learn to fully control the weather
SP: The probability of 8 out of 10. Already, there are ways to deal with tornado or call rain. Through the study of climate in recent years due to fears of global warming, we all better understand the mechanisms of influence on the weather. Perhaps new methods such exposure will be too expensive for everyday use, and they will be used only in critical circumstances.
PT: It is possible. Such attempts are inevitable. Most American scientists support the federal program for the study of methods of intervention in the climate of our planet. These geo-engineering technologies are designed to neutralize the human impact on climate.

The nanobots will circulate through our bloodstream, repairing cells and engaging writing our thoughts
SP: Chance of 7 10.
PT: It is possible. While medical nanorobots that exist only in theory, but research in this area is developing very actively.

Fusion will be a reality
IP: 10 out of 10. The probability of fusion power plants will appear to 2045-2050, and certainly by 2100. Will they become the main source of energy for mankind, it is unclear. It is likely that this place will qualify for huge solar collectors and production of shale gas.

The world will have just three languages ​​- English, Spanish and Chinese
SP: The probability of 8 out of 10. Many languages ​​are in crisis and gradually die, while others face the competition of foreign languages. This process can be completed within a century.

Same-sex marriages will be accepted in most countries
SP: The probability of 8 out of 10. In Western countries, it will happen inevitably. In other countries, the process will be slower because of religious restrictions.

The space elevator would make space available to all
SP: The probability of 8 out of 10. The first space will lift to the middle of the century, and will be much cheaper than conventional methods of going into space. This will speed up the development of space exploration and space tourism, though, I doubt that the value of their use will be available to the mass of people.

Artificial insemination will completely replace the natural
PT: Not far from the truth. Already, more and more people are using new methods of fertilization. Genetic analysis and selection of fertilized embryos are increasingly used in specialized clinics. Already scan embryos to determine about half of known genetic diseases. And in the next ten years, scientists will learn how to select almost 100% of high-grade embryos.
SP: Chance 5 of 10.

The natural habitat of humans and animals will be destroyed, and it will be replaced by parks and museums
PT: Not far from the truth. Our planet is on the verge of a significant extinction. Protection of biological diversity in an era of increasing resource consumption, overpopulation and environmental degradation will require sacrifice, and can often come at the expense of local, often poor, people. Experts believe that the inclusion of the economic interests of the residents of some areas in the fight for the preservation of ecology should become an essential part of conservation strategies.
SP: Chance 2 of 10.

Desert will turn into tropical forests
SP: Chance of 7 out of 10. Methods for Controlling the Desert improved and can be successful.

Marriage will change the conclusion of annual contracts
SP: The probability of 6 out of 10. The usual form of marriage will give way to less binding, which are designed for a certain period of time and not for life. In the face of rising life expectancy is inevitable - if you expect to live 100 years, hardly 20 years old you should marry to the grave.


See also

New and interesting


We on Google+