Let's be scared together: what are natural disasters, predict scientists

In the new issue of the magazine the New Yorker released extensive article on the so-called subduction zone, Cascadia, the fault with high seismic activity in the North-West coast of the USA. Not well understood the fault poses a significant threat — according to the forecast of scientists, it could trigger a devastating earthquake and powerful tsunami that would destroy coastal settlements in the North-West of North America, and it can happen in the coming decades. The subduction zone, Cascadia is not the only serious threat from the elements. "Medusa" tells what other disasters, scientists warn.

The subduction zone, Cascadia



Earthquakes in the subduction zone, Cascadia, illustration: Wikimedia Commons the North American tectonic plate and the Juan de Fuca occur in the North-West coast of the US, the place of the fault is seismically dangerous, but manifests itself infrequently. A major earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone occur on average every 500 years, the last in 1700. Each of the earthquakes, according to reports, was accompanied by a tsunami. Since the 1980-ies seismologists consistently increase the level of danger that is fraught with this area. According to current estimates, the probability of strong earthquake in this area in the coming decades — about 40 percent, and its magnitude is estimated at 8.7 to 9.2.

The wave height of the tsunami caused by this earthquake, can reach 30 meters, the number of victims is estimated at 13 thousand people, more than a million people will be forced to leave their homes — and this is the official version of the emergency management Agency of the United States. The main impact will be in the Washington state and canadian British Columbia. The main question that does not give the answer of research seismologists — when it happens.

Nine earthquake in Japan



Tsunami in Miyako city, Japan March 11, 2011, photo: Jiji Press / AFP / Scanpix In 2011, an earthquake of magnitude 9 and tsunami of individual coastal areas of Japan were virtually destroyed, and the nuclear power plant"Fukushima-1" there was a radiation disaster. According to calculations by the Japanese seismologist Masaaki Kimura, who predicted the earthquake, already in 2017 Japan expect comparable strength of the tremors. Its calculation methods based on the analysis of seismically active places not yet recorded a powerful earthquake — in them we can expect the epicenter of the quake with a high magnitude. Kimura method is experimental and has not been scientifically tested, work on it in peer-reviewed journals were not published, but in General the scientific community are confident that Japan will face strong earthquakes and tsunamis, the only question is the exact date and location of the epicenter.

Geomagnetic collapse



The scheme of interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere of the Earth, illustration: NASA / Wikimedia Commons Geomagnetic storms are disturbances in Earth's magnetic field caused by the outraged drifted high speed solar wind streams. Are a few dozen storms, mostly they are not noticeable person, but there are exceptions.

In 1859 a record of geomagnetic storm on the Sun brought down Telegraph on the Ground, and "Northern lights" were visible in those regions where previously there were fixed. Something similar could happen in the near future, but the consequences will be much worse. According to the calculations of physicist Pete Riley of Predictive Science organization in the next 10 years storm similar to geomagnetic disturbances in 1859 could be repeated with a probability of 12 percent. The damage from it will be catastrophic — the cost of restoring communication systems and electrical appliances that can get out of stroeis for disturbances of the geomagnetic field, is estimated at one to two trillion, and full recovery will require from four to ten years. In 2012, the solar wind flow can cause a storm of such power that almost reached the Ground, but fortunately passed and was well studied by spacecraft orbiting the planet.

Megatsunami in the Atlantic ocean



The Cumbre Vieja, La Palma island, Canary Islands, 20 August 2006, photo: Cesar Reñones Dominguez /Flickr (CC BY-ND 2.0) Vulkanicheskoi chain Cumbre Vieja in the Canary Islands, often referred to as a potential culprit for the emergence of "mega-tsunami" — a huge wave that will cross the Atlantic and reach the US coast. Tsunami, according to the theory, will arise after the collapse of the volcano and falling into the ocean is a large mass of rock. The height of the waves, wrote "Bi-Bi-si" in 2000, will reach 650 meters, to the moment when the tsunami crosses the ocean, it will drop to 30-40 meters, but this is more than enough to cause substantial damage to the East coast of North America.

When it might occur, the collapse is unclear; the Cumbre Vieja has erupted twice in the twentieth century, each emission weakens its walls and closer to a possible catastrophe.

The theory of "mega-tsunami", however, plenty of critics — it is believed that the structural features of the basin of the Atlantic ocean prevent the emergence of large-scale tsunami that can get from the Canary Islands to America. It is unknown how true fears about the fragility of the Cumbre Vieja: some scholars say that he will not survive five eruptions, others that the volcano will stay for another 10 thousand years. published

P. S. And remember, just changing your mind — together we change the world! ©

Source: meduza.io/feature/2015/07/18/davay-boyatsya-vmeste?ext=natgeo1